MIAC Track 2017

Thomas Obi-Wan Knobbe wrote:

The fact is that 2-8 in the 5k are all within 10 seconds, and if Jones' indoor conference performance is any indication of how his season is going we know he won't get top 3. Tris "the man" Dodge and Lerdall aren't running the 10k and will be more fresh than PT and Ketola who are seeded less than 5 seconds ahead. The 10k is going to be such a crap shoot and is such a long race that predicting a winner is as hard as predicting the weather a month from now. And if you think the predictions are so bad lets hear yours. So thanks for your input Appalled but your opinion is "the worse".

Well if we're going off of indoor conference as indicators of performance, you might want to hold off on proclaiming Tris "Dead Last in the 3k and fourth from last in the 5k" Dodge as "The Man"

Jones has looked very good recently and I think he'll post a sub-15 in the 5K.. Granted, 3rd through 8th (maybe even up to top 12) is completely up in the air. It wouldn't surprise me to see Jones take 2nd with a 14:55 and it also wouldn't surprise me to see him take 8th with a 15:03. And as long as we're talking about his 5K, I'll add my two cents about his 10K. I'll be shocked if he doesn't beat his seed time (33:12) by at least 30 seconds. I like Timm in the 10K and think he'll flirt with 31 flat. Knobbe in 2nd and Lehn takes 3rd. And Coffey will shut it down early and still win the 5K by 15+ seconds.

I tried to figure out who is putting who in the 4x800m. You can typically tell who is doing this in most cases, though, some were harder this year.

Bethel:

David Huffman - 1:54.09

Dan Wahlstedt - 1:55.83

Haugen - 1:58.37

Hatton - 1:53.5

Maybe: Taylor Huffman - 1:59.9

I struggled with Bethel's here. I know they almost always put Haugen in the 4x800m. But I don't know who they would switch him out for. Taylor Huffman is the likely choice as he has the slowest 800m PR. But he is only entered in the 800m. Perhaps he is there to try and sneak in the final.

Carleton:

Cook-Gallardo - 1:56.51

Withbroe - 1:54.28

Sikes - 1:56.53

Cook-Gallardo - 1:49.01

At first, I wasn't quite sure if Carleton was going to stack it...then slapped myself because that was a stupid thought. They absolutely are. Young Cook to start it off, that way his 400m instincts don't allow him to go out too fast in an attempt to catch people on any other leg. Withbroe to make up any potential ground lost, then Sikes to maintain, and finally Big Dongson to anchor them home.

Macalester :

Hargens - 1:59.68

Chris Bornean - 1:57.37

Gutierrez - 2:01.85

Tayeb Zaidi - 1:55.59

Like Bethel, another tough one here. I would love to say that they put Ebner in this relay, but he is a fragile human being with a legit chance to win the conference 800m. I say they rest him for the final. They have enough potential depth to still do some damage. Hargens to start off in hopes of a slow tactical pace, and because he is historically a 400m/600m guy. So being the first leg holds the same merit as it did for young Cook. Bornean to make up ground, Gutierrez to maintain, Zaidi to try and create the upset win as the anchor.

Gustavus:

Alex Fredrickson - 1:56.10

Sandberg - 1:57.10

Madigan - 1:56.77

Kyle Fredrickson - 1:53.73

This was relatively easy. They are stacking it. Alex Fredrickson to start, as he is consistently good. Madigan as a safe second leg, then Madigan as the wildcard 3rd to try and create some separation if possible, and Kyle Fredrickson to anchor

Olaf:

Eggers - 1:56.75

Henschel - 1:58.67

Bjork - 1:53.15

Coffey - 1:54.67 *His listed PR. Probably faster.

Eggers to start, he's a veteran and is less likely to make any mistakes. Henschel as the second leg in hopes of maintaining the lead, barring he doesn't do anything too silly. Then Bjork to really try and create some separation and give a nice big cushion for Coffey who has some great leg speed and finishes strong, but it's still hard to beat a 1:49 man in Donson. So a lead is necessary.

Hamline:

Jewson - 1:55.85

Gustafson - 1:55.68

Overvig - 1:58.54

Krause - 1:53.87

I feel like Hamline is a very standard, traditional team in terms of relay order. Jewson as the first leg, Gustafson to keep it going, Overvig to maintain, and Krause as the obvious stud anchor.

St. Thomas:

Chris Meuller - 1:58.25

Halbmaier - 1:56.86

Wachter - 1:57.40

Karlson - 1:56.32

Surprise! They are stacking it, too. Not only are they stacking it, they are putting in almost exclusively fresh runners for this. Meuller to lead off because he is a relay veteran. Halbmaier to stretch the field, Wachter to keep the momentum going, and Karlson to finish.

Saint John’s:

Lamb - 1:57.03

Raasch - 1:58.50

Zimmerman - 1:58.66

Bugler - 1:56.08

Like St. Thomas, Saint John's is stacking their relay with fresh runners. They tend to do this and it usually turns out well (have won 4 of the last 5 4x800m). Lamb to lead off as they need their second best 800m runner here to even keep up with the field. Raasch goes here as their third best 800m runner to try and keep up with the pack. Zimmerman is a relay veteran and seems to always run well. Then finally Bugler to anchor. It works out having him here because if they do well, he can go for it. If not, he can cruise to the finish to save his legs for the next day.

Predicted Finish:

Carleton - DCG, that is all you need in a 4x800m.

St. Olaf - They have a gap in the armor with Henschel. They won’t get the separation they need.

Hamline - IT IS THEIR HOME TRACK, I HAVE TO PUT THEM HERE. Plus, they have the talent

Bethel - Solely because of Hatton. Man can close hard.

Gustavus - Close with Bethel. These two teams are interchangeable for me.

St. Thomas - They are fresh, but not enough depth to do any damage to the teams listed above

Saint John’s - Also a fresh team. But, alas, they take the hit here with the lack of a Feichtinger.

Macalister - Their team is honestly still good, but the depth isn’t there.

Just Me wrote:

Now that we know St.Olaf has loaded their 4x8, I'm adjusting my prediction for this race:

Carleton 7:38.8

St. Olaf 7:40.5

Gustavus 7:40.9

Hamline 7:42.3

Bethel 7:42.5

And although we already know who's going to easily win the open 8, the last 100 meters is going to be awesome. Frederickson has finished strong lately so I'm taking him in 2nd place and Hatton gets past Ebner at the line for 3rd and Huffman by a whisker over Krause for 5th. Good luck guys!

DCG 1:50.8

Frederickson 1:52.6

Hatton 1:53.1

Ebner 1:53.3

Huffman 1:53.9

You have Ebner running a second off his PR, and Frederickson, Hatton, and Huffman running PRs, despite the fact that Ebner is the only one who WON'T be in the 4x800 on Friday night.

Pretty sure he was talking about the open 800

Yeah they both were. No 4x800 = fresher than them on day 2. Get it?

read wrote:

Pretty sure he was talking about the open 800

And what's the point of adding .X seconds like anyone could possibly believe .8 is more reasonable than .6?

I chose this over homework wrote:

I tried to figure out who is putting who in the 4x800m. You can typically tell who is doing this in most cases, though, some were harder this year.

Hope you didn't waste too much time on this. The entries say who each team is planning on running. Olaf is running Longeran, not Henschel.

He must be a Tommie......struggles with the complexity and precision of math........

bro, it's Macalester not Macalister

Its a shame that the race for first in the main events are not going to be that interesting. Klamm will easily win the 400 and the race for 2-4 will be a bethel showdown, so that won't be that exciting. Jerry will easily win the 800 with his hair flowing in Ebners face. Since Jerry isn't in the 1500 its all Coffey. Coffey will run easy in the prelims and then go for the conference record in the finals. Indoor conference was much more exciting with the 600, 800, 1000, and Mile which all were showdowns. Who knows maybe the Carleton 4x4 will try and challenge the Bethel juggernaut.

Alright looking at the heat sheets, here's my predictions for the finals:

400: Issac Erickson, Chris Mueller, Shawn Monroe, Sam Remine Patrick Klamm, David Supinski, Joey Cook-Gallardo, Carl Klamm

Guys who got bad lane draws: Bryan Richter, James Skidmore. Gonna be the Bethel show.

800: Jerry Cook-Gallardo, Ben Withbroe, Nolan Ebner, Isaac Krause, Evan Hatton, Kyle Fredrickson, Sam Jewson, Brandon Krogman

Brandon Krogman pulled the third heat along last year, looks like he will have a chance to do it again this year. So, if Huffman or Withbroe is smart, they'll get after the first heat so a 3rd place finish isn't a death sentence.

1500: Joe Coffey, Walter Edstrom, Charlie Jones, Austin Knowlton, Henry Harper, Chris Boranian, Nick Rethemeier, Sean Bjork, Jacob Eggers, Matthew Lillehaugen, William Anderson, Frank Gustafson

I bet the MAC freshmen make the 1st heat faster, not wanting to fight each other for the last spot. Oles take it SLOW in the second heat, with a 4x800 to worry about.

If I am 100% right I will buy a lottery ticket, and if I win I will split the winning with anyone who correctly guesses my identity. Trivia to follow the lottery win.

Said heat sheets are located here on Wayzata Results http://wayzatatiming.com/track/2017/MIACOutdoor/MeetProg.htm

Love this Zaidi anchor upset talk. This is a great thread!

Looked back on the fall only for the 10k

Place. Name (MIAC XC Finish) School / / 10k PR

1. Jovan Newsum (3) St. Mary's / / 32:04.45

2. Thomas Knobbe (4) GAC / / 32:02.62

3. Evan Jones (6) GAC / / 33:45.45

4. Maxwell Kuzara (8) SJU / / 32:57.85

5. Tremayne Collins (9) SJU / / Not Listed/Conversion

6. James Logan (17) HAM / / Not Listed/Conversion

7. Abdullahi Salan (19) AUG / / 32:11.90

8. Adam Brandt (24) UST / / 32:22.63

9. Andrew Fritz (31) UST / / Not Listed/Conversion

10. Spencer Urick (48) UST / / Not Listed/Conversion

11. John Benson (51) GAC / / 32:58.41

12. Sam Friesen (58) SJU / / 32:55.29

13. Ricky Peterson (67) UST / / 34:00.54

14. Keith Ketola (69) STO / / Not Listed/Conversion

15. Mike Ryan (93) UST / / 33:17.14

16. Spencer Nelson (107) MAC / / 34:11.73

17.Paul Timm (115) STO / / 31:16.21

18. John Mark Shields (DNC) BETHEL / / 33:55.41

19.Tyler Bethke (DNC) BETHEL / / 32:15.39

20. Calvin Lehn (DNC) STO / / 31:10.18

Yes, I fully understand that the 10,000M on a track and Como are totally different. Yes, I fully understand that some people had uncharacteristic races. However, not much else to go off. That being said--

1. Paul Timm

2. Jovan Newsum

3. Calvin Lehn

4. Evan Jones

5. Keith Ketola

6. Adam Brandt

7. James Logan

8. Maxwell Kuzara

9. Thomas Knobbe

10. Abdullahi Salan

11. Tremayne Collins

12. Sam Friesen

13. Mike Ryan

14. Tyler Bethke

15. Andrew Fritz

16. Spencer Urick

17. John Benson

18. Ricky Peterson

19. Spencer Nelson

20. John Mark Shields

Please. Tear this apart with your thoughts. Get this 10,000 conversation going. This ought to be more fun than watching these fellas go out at 7:00 pace, anyway.

Actually seems like a pretty good prediction. Maybe put Knobbe or Bethke a little higher.

I fully agree, is out Knobbe a bit higher. He's shown that his fitness has improved quite a bit from the beginning of the season to now. He was also like 4th his sophomore year in hammered last 400m. So he's been here before. Maxwell Kuzara is intriguing, too returner but hasn't indicated that sort of fitness that one would associate with it. That said, he's PR'd on his 5k last season and had a pretty good 1500m this year. In a slower race is out these two pretty high up.

As for Jovan, he is either going to really impress us this weekend, or just hang on for dear life. It's so hard to tell with his lack of racing this season.

Can someone shut up the announcers? We're switching between a guy yelling about the shot put or high jump, and a guy who can't pronounce names like Calvin and Jovan correctly.

Evan Jones is the man after that 10k

CoffeyFan wrote:

Evan Jones is the man after that 10k

PT with a really strong move but just tactically too early. You can't kick a mile and a half.