Any rankings before the Clovis/Manhattan weekend are essentially pre season rankings.
1. Most of the coaches for these athletes are peaking them for December so September performances mean nothing.
2. A lot of these athletes haven’t had national level competition yet.
For a top 50 runner in the nation who’s planning to make a run into NXN, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they opened early October - which a lot of top ranked teams are actually doing this year.
Exactly. Well said... and it seems more likely these days that upperclassmen run less frequent, and focus on constant improvement and ramping up towards the end of the season so they peak at the right time.
Completely incorrect take. The best runners have opened and are rolling. No one is holding out or "getting fitter" at this point. And Clovis and Manhattan are quite irrelevant. Show me how those runners fared at NXN last year?
Exactly. Well said... and it seems more likely these days that upperclassmen run less frequent, and focus on constant improvement and ramping up towards the end of the season so they peak at the right time.
Completely incorrect take. The best runners have opened and are rolling. No one is holding out or "getting fitter" at this point. And Clovis and Manhattan are quite irrelevant. Show me how those runners fared at NXN last year?
I don’t understand what you mean by “getting fitter”. You absolutely can keep mileage high June-Sep and then start the taper and be ready for December. Two months is more than enough time to hammer the speed work.
I very specifically said the “Clovis/Manhattan WEEKEND”. You chose to strawman and make it about those specific meets.
Just to prove you wrong: Last year, Charlie Vause was losing races in November and won NXN. In 23’ Jordan was losing in November and won NXN. Last year Jane was an anomaly because she’s arguably the GOAT but in ‘23 Ritz was also losing races in November before winning NXN.
This argument is fundamentally about peaking. I’ve proven you wrong multiple times. However because you strawmanned me and completely took what I said out of context, you have no interest in a good faith debate and I won’t be responding to you anymore.
Completely incorrect take. The best runners have opened and are rolling. No one is holding out or "getting fitter" at this point. And Clovis and Manhattan are quite irrelevant. Show me how those runners fared at NXN last year?
I don’t understand what you mean by “getting fitter”. You absolutely can keep mileage high June-Sep and then start the taper and be ready for December. Two months is more than enough time to hammer the speed work.
I very specifically said the “Clovis/Manhattan WEEKEND”. You chose to strawman and make it about those specific meets.
Just to prove you wrong: Last year, Charlie Vause was losing races in November and won NXN. In 23’ Jordan was losing in November and won NXN. Last year Jane was an anomaly because she’s arguably the GOAT but in ‘23 Ritz was also losing races in November before winning NXN.
This argument is fundamentally about peaking. I’ve proven you wrong multiple times. However because you strawmanned me and completely took what I said out of context, you have no interest in a good faith debate and I won’t be responding to you anymore.
I have no idea what strawmanning means... Jane was not an anomaly.
Just to prove you wrong: Last year, Charlie Vause was losing races in November and won NXN. In 23’ Jordan was losing in November and won NXN. Last year Jane was an anomaly because she’s arguably the GOAT but in ‘23 Ritz was also losing races in November before winning NXN.
And A. Sahlman has never won a cross country race until NXN 2022
Just to prove you wrong: Last year, Charlie Vause was losing races in November and won NXN. In 23’ Jordan was losing in November and won NXN. Last year Jane was an anomaly because she’s arguably the GOAT but in ‘23 Ritz was also losing races in November before winning NXN.
And A. Sahlman has never won a cross country race until NXN 2022
Some of that might indicate the course and conditions are variables that greatly affect some runners more than others.
Completely incorrect take. The best runners have opened and are rolling. No one is holding out or "getting fitter" at this point. And Clovis and Manhattan are quite irrelevant. Show me how those runners fared at NXN last year?
You must be new to running. Properly coached runners, especially in high school, are improving over the course of a season. The typical HS runner will have their best performance at their year end meets - league, region, State, NXR etc.
The national caliber teams look for an even later peak at nxr and nxn.
When you see someone do great at Woodbridge and then disappear, they either got hurt, or mistimed their hard training.
This principle holds in track too, with best results in May and June.
Lowen confirmed her #1 ranking on Dyestat XC.. Garmers consistent in that 16:50 range. Great day of racing. Strength day as speed based athletes struggled.
Looks like Webb School of Knoxville obviously has a very strong top 2, but the rest of their team needs work to even qualify for NXN. Their #3 did better last year than this year at Great American.
They are top 5 in some national rankings, but that’s pushing it.
Looks like Webb School of Knoxville obviously has a very strong top 2, but the rest of their team needs work to even qualify for NXN. Their #3 did better last year than this year at Great American.
They are top 5 in some national rankings, but that’s pushing it.
Agreed, but I think they're one of the teams that the committee views favorably. Same with Brentwood. I bet SE gets an at large bid for either.
Last year it was 2 SW teams, 1 CA team, and one MW team on the girls side. So one of them has to not receive it this year for a SE team to go
SW will get two.
I don't see Cali getting one this year, but it could happen if Toro upsets someone in the merge. Also, the merge is stupid. Cali coaches should get together and move the state meet up one week.
The south is better than people thought on the girls side. Perhaps no national title contenders, but the region is deeper this year. Lots of people overlooking Smithson Valley, too. They were close to Flower Mound without their 1. My guess is that the two spots will come from South, SE, or MW but I guess anything can happen. Lots of racing left.
