another all time high SP500 and NASD
not quite for dow and r2k
these are the good times, gents.
another all time high SP500 and NASD
not quite for dow and r2k
these are the good times, gents.
Seven out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 1, 2021. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 25.94%, France's CAC 40 is in second is with a gain of 24.17%, and our own S&P 500 is in third with a gain of 22.83%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 7.63%.
My personal investment thesis that kind of fully formed this year is based on my situation:
29 years old, moved back home from NYC because of Covid, no family/kids. Solid job as a software engineer at about 160k right now. Market is super hot, can easily get another job. So all of that combined, I figure I'm able to take on a solid amount of risk during this time where it seems like the risk curve can pay you back reasonably well for your risks.
Whenever a small cap coin makes it big (2-3x or more) I take the initial out and let it ride on house money.
Breakdown:
70% Crypto (mostly BTC and ETH, nearly 55% of it)
19.1% stocks (a mix, sp500, tsla, vwagy, a few div stocks, XLE - took somebody's rec from last fall)
11% cash (given a max burn rate of 2.5k/month, that's 15 months of living expenses even if i were to move back out on my own... i probably will soon)
Not counting about 65k in 401k and 12k in HSA.
Given all of that, is my strategy really that dumb or foolish? My first 4.5 years of my career I sat all in cash and didn't invest at all, probably I read one of Iggy's posts on here in 2016 and thought that the market was gonna "correct".
“Given all of that, is my strategy really that dumb or foolish? My first 4.5 years of my career I sat all in cash and didn't invest at all, probably I read one of Iggy's posts on here in 2016 and thought that the market was gonna "correct".”
Yea it was Igy fault.
Well you will never be able to blame your current strategy on me.😹
Stop the presses! Breaking news. I repeat Breaking news. The Hussmann Strategic Growth fund is actually up today. Yes, not a typo. The funds is actually up today. Will wonders never cease?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Given all of that, is my strategy really that dumb or foolish? My first 4.5 years of my career I sat all in cash and didn't invest at all, probably I read one of Iggy's posts on here in 2016 and thought that the market was gonna "correct".”
Yea it was Igy fault.
Well you will never be able to blame your current strategy on me.😹
Never sit on cash for the long-term. Inflation eats at it. Only for short-term for emergencies or trading purposes.
Is anyone surprised MSFT has done so well? I thought it would have run its course many years ago. It was at $62 5 years ago and now at $332. Pretty amazing.
danube steak wrote:
Stop the presses! Breaking news. I repeat Breaking news. The Hussmann Strategic Growth fund is actually up today. Yes, not a typo. The funds is actually up today. Will wonders never cease?
One of many future investment learning moments: that was yesterday’s pricing; mutual funds price several hours following the close at NAV.
danube steak wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Given all of that, is my strategy really that dumb or foolish? My first 4.5 years of my career I sat all in cash and didn't invest at all, probably I read one of Iggy's posts on here in 2016 and thought that the market was gonna "correct".”
Yea it was Igy fault.
Well you will never be able to blame your current strategy on me.😹
Never sit on cash for the long-term. Inflation eats at it. Only for short-term for emergencies or trading purposes.
You’ll wish you had cash. Second teaching moment of the day:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-cash-is-a-hedge-for-regular-investors.htmlGhost of Igloi wrote:
danube steak wrote:
Never sit on cash for the long-term. Inflation eats at it. Only for short-term for emergencies or trading purposes.
You’ll wish you had cash. Second teaching moment of the day:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-cash-is-a-hedge-for-regular-investors.html
Igy - I have loads of cash in my mattress.
A Sleep Number Bed and MyPillow? 😂
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm not saying what the others are saying, I will give you my own advice.
You need to think big picture. Like big picture, a financial plan. Flagpole will be along any second and will do a better job than I describing it at length, or better yet, do a search on this site and read it.
Several of us here dabble in crypto, but that if play money, at least for us.
One should cover the bases first, consisting of reserve cash, lowering debt, low-risk retirement savings, saving for a house/car/etc., kid's college if desired and applicable, etc. And then pick a certain of relatively more aggessive equities, or what-have-you.
Build a safe base before speculating.
There are several here on this site who attest to the fact that it works, and can work quite well.
From my experience, though, the lure or quick gains has not only the potential downside of quick losses, it takes ones time and resources away from the fundamental task of building long term financial security.
Very nicely said. Yes, there are specifics that I have laid out in the past, but your post has all the right ingredients.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Johannes wrote:
Here’s the complete quote, including what Igy didn’t want you to see:
“ Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term; soaring stock and home prices that fattened retirement accounts; and pandemic-related restrictions at Social Security field offices nationwide that forced seniors to apply online.”
Yes, and I used the government stimulus checks to paint my house, and brick my chimney. As a result my home value increased, paint and stones prices went up along with CPI. Next year my monthly Social Security will be 5.9% higher. Oh, and the prices of my two used cars all went up more than the stock market. No bad days.😹
Sounds good to me. Not sure why you do so much whining.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A Sleep Number Bed and MyPillow? 😂
LOL - Igy - nice one
danube steak wrote:
Is anyone surprised MSFT has done so well? I thought it would have run its course many years ago. It was at $62 5 years ago and now at $332. Pretty amazing.
I'm not surprised. I started pumping it on this thread about three years ago and in my own portfolio, heavily, and in their particular instance, I started loading up when they started emerging on the cloud computing scene.
Get a load of this post from 3 years ago dated 7/24/18:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And sometimes the things getting the most notoriety do so becuase they are the most noteworthy?
Does this description fit for Apple? Microsoft? Google? Facebook? Amazon?
All are arguably absolutely revolutionary in how we communicate and conduct business.
The value one prescribes for that accomplishment may vary but to fail to acknowledge their status as a game-changer is just plain wrong-headed.
Seattle,
No problem in their business, you just hold them at ridiculous valuations. You think just like ever investor blinded by greed.
What is wrong headed is your view of how this ends.
We’ll see.
Igy
FWIW, I guess we are seeing......
Flagpole wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm not saying what the others are saying, I will give you my own advice.
You need to think big picture. Like big picture, a financial plan. Flagpole will be along any second and will do a better job than I describing it at length, or better yet, do a search on this site and read it.
Several of us here dabble in crypto, but that if play money, at least for us.
One should cover the bases first, consisting of reserve cash, lowering debt, low-risk retirement savings, saving for a house/car/etc., kid's college if desired and applicable, etc. And then pick a certain of relatively more aggessive equities, or what-have-you.
Build a safe base before speculating.
There are several here on this site who attest to the fact that it works, and can work quite well.
From my experience, though, the lure or quick gains has not only the potential downside of quick losses, it takes ones time and resources away from the fundamental task of building long term financial security.
Very nicely said. Yes, there are specifics that I have laid out in the past, but your post has all the right ingredients.
Your narratives are more methodical and easier to comprehend, and to your credit, because they expose folks to an investing approach they might not otherwise get exposure to. It is very important.
seattle prattle wrote:
danube steak wrote:
Is anyone surprised MSFT has done so well? I thought it would have run its course many years ago. It was at $62 5 years ago and now at $332. Pretty amazing.
I'm not surprised. I started pumping it on this thread about three years ago and in my own portfolio, heavily, and in their particular instance, I started loading up when they started emerging on the cloud computing scene.
Get a load of this post from 3 years ago dated 7/24/18:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No problem in their business, you just hold them at ridiculous valuations. You think just like ever investor blinded by greed.
What is wrong headed is your view of how this ends.
We’ll see.
Igy
FWIW, I guess we are seeing......
And then there was this gem from July 2020. MSFT has gained about 60% since then.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Thinking about going significantly in on MSFT. Only way I'm gonna be able to buy a house in the next 5 years is if I can 10x my savings through good 'ol American equities, just like God intended.
Not a good bet. Highly levered company. It will be one of the worst investments over the next five years.
Iggy betting against a company that plays a key role in the abstraction and ubiquitification of software that automates human processes, increases information flow, and thus is a strong deflationary pressure on society.
Scrub move, what else is new.
To nudge this Microsoft thing out of the past in terms of missed opportunities, one thing to consider is in comparing it to it's big tech brethren like Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, it dodges the threat of regulation bullet. No equivalent to Apple store monopoly, no anticompetitive practices like Amazon or Google, and none of the myriad of headaches facing social media platform like Facebook.
It might be considered unique in that regard.