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Love this story. Sorry it’s paywalled.
Basically says millions are retiring early because
1: stock market had made them rich
And
2: the pandemic taught them that it they spend less each month…they will save tons of money.
And a smaller
3: gummint benefits helped. The story claims to be about benefits but most examples are stock market related.
Just shows how well the country has invested, and how the pandemic showed us how to spend less. We will forget the latter soon enough, but a good lesson.
“Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term”
^investments😹
Iggy your addition is a sophomoric - "more like things are gonna crash 50-70%!" and yet you provide no reason or thought out chain of events that would cause that to happen. What's your bear case? You need more than "oh money printer and things are overvalued based off of historical P/E ratios blah blah blah". There's literally no bear case besides CCP and US getting into a tactical nuclear war over Taiwan.
Re: Talking about many doing well, it definitely seems in the air.
Myself, I made a few moderate mistakes - trying to swing trade BTC (ended up effectively losing 35% of my BTC), not going in hard from the March 2020 lows when I was all in cash (100k NW at the time)... and I still am in great shape (now 340k NW).
Many have crushed, even an idiot mid 20's bro yolo'ing 10k into one of TSLA, Doge, etc made an absolute killing. I know friends of friends that have done that.
I wonder where things will go from here. Seems like velocity of investments are very high, so there's always gonna be a new shiny thing that gets people pumped about putting their USD tokens into the new stock or coin.
For sure Crypto has another trillion or 2 in market cap to pump in before a pullback, momentum is there.
Swaglord_the_realest_!69 wrote:
Iggy your addition is a sophomoric - "more like things are gonna crash 50-70%!" and yet you provide no reason or thought out chain of events that would cause that to happen. What's your bear case? You need more than "oh money printer and things are overvalued based off of historical P/E ratios blah blah blah". There's literally no bear case besides ……
I consider your investments moronic, but whatever……
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDHWJVVX0AE2DJA?format=png&name=mediumSwaglord_the_realest_!69 wrote:
Iggy your addition is a sophomoric - "more like things are gonna crash 50-70%!" and yet you provide no reason or thought out chain of events that would cause that to happen. What's your bear case? You need more than "oh money printer and things are overvalued based off of historical P/E ratios blah blah blah". There's literally no bear case besides CCP and US getting into a tactical nuclear war over Taiwan.
Re: Talking about many doing well, it definitely seems in the air.
Myself, I made a few moderate mistakes - trying to swing trade BTC (ended up effectively losing 35% of my BTC), not going in hard from the March 2020 lows when I was all in cash (100k NW at the time)... and I still am in great shape (now 340k NW).
Many have crushed, even an idiot mid 20's bro yolo'ing 10k into one of TSLA, Doge, etc made an absolute killing. I know friends of friends that have done that.
I wonder where things will go from here. Seems like velocity of investments are very high, so there's always gonna be a new shiny thing that gets people pumped about putting their USD tokens into the new stock or coin.
For sure Crypto has another trillion or 2 in market cap to pump in before a pullback, momentum is there.
Jaysus this post is terrifying.
It’s like Kennedy selling in 1929 after getting a stock tip from a shoeshine guy.
Yeah, it’s in the air dude and that’s not good at all.
It means the money is already in the market and not much is left to come.
agip wrote:Jaysus this post is terrifying.
It’s like Kennedy selling in 1929 after getting a stock tip from a shoeshine guy.
Yeah, it’s in the air dude and that’s not good at all.
It means the money is already in the market and not much is left to come.
I was thinking just about exactly the same thing, but who knows, maybe he’s onto something…
(I’m keeping most of my money off the table anyway…)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term”
Here’s the complete quote, including what Igy didn’t want you to see:
“ Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term; soaring stock and home prices that fattened retirement accounts; and pandemic-related restrictions at Social Security field offices nationwide that forced seniors to apply online.”
I’m not saying that yolo’ing is the move. But it seems like there’s plenty of steam left in a more aggressive approach.
So you guys are saying that you’re bearish going into EOY and 2022? Cash in and de-risk?
I'm not saying what the others are saying, I will give you my own advice.
You need to think big picture. Like big picture, a financial plan. Flagpole will be along any second and will do a better job than I describing it at length, or better yet, do a search on this site and read it.
Several of us here dabble in crypto, but that if play money, at least for us.
One should cover the bases first, consisting of reserve cash, lowering debt, low-risk retirement savings, saving for a house/car/etc., kid's college if desired and applicable, etc. And then pick a certain of relatively more aggessive equities, or what-have-you.
Build a safe base before speculating.
There are several here on this site who attest to the fact that it works, and can work quite well.
From my experience, though, the lure or quick gains has not only the potential downside of quick losses, it takes ones time and resources away from the fundamental task of building long term financial security.
Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:So you guys are saying that you’re bearish going into EOY and 2022? Cash in and de-risk?
I’m not advising anybody anything, I hope that’s been clear. Just expressing my own beliefs and opinions. My primary thesis is that markets, on the whole, are unpredictable, except after the fact. They tend to make idiots of us all, although most of us don’t think so.
I have no prediction or forecast for the end of the year. I do think a big correction is more likely now than usual, and I don’t want to expose my planned leisurely retirement to too much risk. So I’m taking a relatively cautious path with my money. Which doesn’t mean I think a crash is necessarily likely, and I am totally agnostic about what other people should do with their money. We’re all adults on here, so far as the internet can tell, and free to make our own choices.
I will say, I was playing around with hobby trading with my own money before 2000 and made some really dumb choices that cost me a lot of the little money I had. I also took my first car loan in the mid80s when interest rates were through the roof. So my own mentality toward money and risk is strongly shaped by those experiences. Much like my in laws saved everything because of their upbringing as poor immigrants. Maybe it’s all peaches and cream for the current generation raised on YOLOing and HODLing their way to quick riches. Like Racket keeps reminding us, and I can’t quite internalize, stocks only go up, right? 🙂
Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:
I’m not saying that yolo’ing is the move. But it seems like there’s plenty of steam left in a more aggressive approach.
So you guys are saying that you’re bearish going into EOY and 2022? Cash in and de-risk?
I'm old enough to recognize both that I can't time the market AND that markets like these are frothy and attracting way too much fast and dumb money to be sustained.
TIL that loaded inbound unloaded containers at Los Angeles/Long Beach Port are up 23.8% calendar 2021 so far vs 2020 .
Shows that a large amount of the 'supply chain' problem is higher demand/volume. Moving 23.8% more containers is a huge jump that no doubt is causing bottlenecks.
It's not like the same volume of stuff is arriving and not being transported. It's that there was a huge jump in stuff arriving and it's taking time to adjust.
agip wrote:
TIL that loaded inbound unloaded containers at Los Angeles/Long Beach Port are up 23.8% calendar 2021 so far vs 2020 .
Shows that a large amount of the 'supply chain' problem is higher demand/volume. Moving 23.8% more containers is a huge jump that no doubt is causing bottlenecks.
It's not like the same volume of stuff is arriving and not being transported. It's that there was a huge jump in stuff arriving and it's taking time to adjust.
Although that number is only getting off the boats...not sure how bad the bottleneck is on the trucking/warehousing side.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1455351085170823169
that's a lovely tweet.
on one level it is humble, saying this is no big deal
on another level, it's elon saying 'hey we have demand out the wazoo here - can't keep the factories running fast enough!!!!!! Holy cow!!!!
Johannes wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term”
Here’s the complete quote, including what Igy didn’t want you to see:
“ Economists, researchers and government officials attribute the trend to generous federal stimulus and unemployment insurance payments that enabled retirees to make ends meet in the short term; soaring stock and home prices that fattened retirement accounts; and pandemic-related restrictions at Social Security field offices nationwide that forced seniors to apply online.”
Yes, and I used the government stimulus checks to paint my house, and brick my chimney. As a result my home value increased, paint and stones prices went up along with CPI. Next year my monthly Social Security will be 5.9% higher. Oh, and the prices of my two used cars all went up more than the stock market. No bad days.😹