Down goes the Dow

Prof. Racket wrote:

doc idiot wrote:

I think that may be a very risky assumption if you are only thinking about a single stock. Always? I dunno…

Stocks only go up

Not HSGFX

danube steak wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

Stocks only go up

Not HSGFX

Like AAPL and AMZN today😷

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

danube steak wrote:

Not HSGFX

Like AAPL and AMZN today😷

You could have bought 1 share of AAPL for a nickel back in 1982. Today that share is worth $147. Seems AAPL DOES always go up over the long haul.

this is interesting:

the unweighted tech SP500 (RYT) is up a smidge today

the weighted tech SP500 (XLK) is down 50 bps

Sp500 is down 28 bps

tech motors on without its leaders today.

I'm torn between owning the weighted or unweighted. I get spooked by these mighty giants, having seen IBM, apple, compaq, dell blackberry etc all crash and die, or nearly die. The tech industry has always killed the giants.

but maybe not this time

agip wrote:but maybe not this time

It's different this time... now stocks only go up. It's a Millennial thing... :-)

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

agip wrote:but maybe not this time

It's different this time... now stocks only go up. It's a Millennial thing... :-)

danube steak wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Like AAPL and AMZN today😷

You could have bought 1 share of AAPL for a nickel back in 1982. Today that share is worth $147. Seems AAPL DOES always go up over the long haul.

You could have bought………always goes up……..😹

doc idiot wrote:

investing noob wrote:I mean my plan is to hold this until I retire, so I'm not worried if it drops some more. It will always go up in the long run.

I think that may be a very risky assumption if you are only thinking about a single stock. Always? I dunno…

Now if you are talking about a diversified basket of holdings, or better yet index-tracking funds, I think the chance of always going up in the long run is much higher. Of course the potential payoff is also lower…

MSFT, AMZN, APPL, GOOGL have gone up since 2008. Sure there will be some pullbacks but as long as capitalism exists they will always go up in the long run. These are the top cloud companies and they are not going anywhere unless something drastic changes.

investing noob wrote:

doc idiot wrote:

I think that may be a very risky assumption if you are only thinking about a single stock. Always? I dunno…

Now if you are talking about a diversified basket of holdings, or better yet index-tracking funds, I think the chance of always going up in the long run is much higher. Of course the potential payoff is also lower…

MSFT, AMZN, APPL, GOOGL have gone up since 2008. Sure there will be some pullbacks but as long as capitalism exists they will always go up in the long run. These are the top cloud companies and they are not going anywhere unless something drastic changes.

Of course that belief is turned upside down when viewed from a historical perspective. Two decades ago similar comments were voiced about CSCO, INTL, DELL, and LU (to name just a few).. If anything cloud companies will cannibalize one another in the future, and some new technology will determine winners and losers. The companies you mentioned have benefitted from the you never lose mentality. The most over owned stocks in financial history. Self reinforcing belief of the mass of investors, promoted by the financial industry. The Nifty Fifty, or the Four Horseman of this era. The fact of reckless Fed policies and unhinged Government spending has blown this bubble, not some new age of innovation. That reality and its end point determines how all companies perform in the coming decade.

investing noob wrote:

doc idiot wrote:

I think that may be a very risky assumption if you are only thinking about a single stock. Always? I dunno…

Now if you are talking about a diversified basket of holdings, or better yet index-tracking funds, I think the chance of always going up in the long run is much higher. Of course the potential payoff is also lower…

MSFT, AMZN, APPL, GOOGL have gone up since 2008. Sure there will be some pullbacks but as long as capitalism exists they will always go up in the long run. These are the top cloud companies and they are not going anywhere unless something drastic changes.

In a warped, rather admittedly non-diversified kind of way, I cover my bases.

By that I mean, I own a couple of tech ETFs, the Nasdaq ETF, and several individual tech company stocks, in varying amounts.

To be honest, I rarely have found a need to trim any, and more often than not, have added to the positions, and it is always with this feeling like 'it's gone up a lot already, but don't fight the trend;.'

And speaking of Apple, still holding shares from about 2001, when it traded for less than a dollar per share (split adjusted, of course).

That is so wrong, it's hard to know where to start.

Of course there are winners and losers, and no guarantees. A prudent investor need be prepared to respond accordingly.

Wake up and watch the new age of innovation. From your computer. Get it? On the internet.

Or not, You choose.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

danube steak wrote:

Not HSGFX

Like AAPL and AMZN today😷

I said to buy the dip and I did. My Apple shares from yesterday are already up 2.5% today. The Amazon I bought this morning is already up 1.25%. I hope they dip more so I can add more.

When a new sheriff comes to town then I'll rotate out, otherwise I'll keep buying Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google for at least the next ten years.

For example INTC used to be on top but in the past year or two everyone rotated to NVDA and AMD. It was obvious to buy NVDA when they announced the split.

I sorta agree with Igy on part of what he wrote....tech is the ultimate creative destruction industry. The winners rarely last more than a decade or maybe two. Then someone else comes up with a better mousetrap and suddenly they are following Blackberry and Nokia down the toilet. The mighty always seem invulnerable...until they aren't.

That's my internal debate over buying a weighted tech fund or an equal weighted fund.

agip wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

That is so wrong, it's hard to know where to start.

Of course there are winners and losers, and no guarantees. A prudent investor need be prepared to respond accordingly.

Wake up and watch the new age of innovation. From your computer. Get it? On the internet.

Or not, You choose.

I sorta agree with Igy on part of what he wrote....tech is the ultimate creative destruction industry. The winners rarely last more than a decade or maybe two. Then someone else comes up with a better mousetrap and suddenly they are following Blackberry and Nokia down the toilet. The mighty always seem invulnerable...until they aren't.

That's my internal debate over buying a weighted tech fund or an equal weighted fund.

The names may change but the game stays the same. It is admittedly a fast moving, evolving industry, if you want to call it that.

And it is not 'suddenly a company is down the toilet'. The fact that outdated technology was being replaced played out in real time over weeks, months, quarters, and those paying attention so it plainly and could adjust their portfolios accordingly. As for the ETF or fund, the losers are replaced by the winners, and the technology space advances in so doing, so the new products come to line, are bought up voraciously, and the sector advances.... relentlessly.... up.

That is the paradigm, and the players navigate within that.

I could do the 'don't be like your parents' thing and start to tell you how talk of "convergence" in 1999 was all the buzz, how some of us listened, and when Apple started coming out with announcements about new iPhones, an online music store, little digital mp3 players to challenge the mini-disc market, on top of their macbooks, desktop computers, and operating system, etc., well some of us listened.

I am being perfectly honest when i tell you that having dabbled in the hardware and cabling side of the sector back then, I learned in a matter of a few weeks that that wasn't where the best growth was happening.

Cut to the chase - the ETF in the sector is the conservative approach, with ample merit to it. Picking the companies comes with more risk. But point being, to not see that technology has been the innovative gift of our lifetime is simply being blind beyond all imagination.

Where it goes from here? I guess we'll just have to pay attention. As always.

agip wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

That is so wrong, it's hard to know where to start.

Of course there are winners and losers, and no guarantees. A prudent investor need be prepared to respond accordingly.

Wake up and watch the new age of innovation. From your computer. Get it? On the internet.

Or not, You choose.

I sorta agree with Igy on part of what he wrote....tech is the ultimate creative destruction industry. The winners rarely last more than a decade or maybe two. Then someone else comes up with a better mousetrap and suddenly they are following Blackberry and Nokia down the toilet. The mighty always seem invulnerable...until they aren't.

That's my internal debate over buying a weighted tech fund or an equal weighted fund.

I have pointed out on more than one occasion the growth of these companies earnings is a product stock buy backs, lower tax rate, and Fed induced lower interest rates. Investors keep paying up for a unit of earnings. So where is the real value? Sure you are free to argue that this game continues into the future. Other than the past performance of these stocks you have nothing to say that predicts the future.

Interestingly a new franchise company in the Boise area provides service to repair or replace smart phone batteries and screens. My four year old iPhone SE was loosing charge. Other than that, I was perfectly happy with it. The vendor replaced the battery for $40, and it works great. I am sure I am not the only person that see no benefit in the marginal improvements, or unnecessary gizmos that come with the latest upgrade.

Meanwhile I choose to reside in the Hussman Metaverse. 😹

Igy

(avoiding re-quoting long response upon response), but to your point, Igy, I am the first to tell you I don't fully have an accounting of why this sector has flourished and so have the companies within it, and the degree to which it matters, in terms of external market forces, regulations, and interventions by the regulatory agencies. But it has and for all I know, probably will continue to do so. Whether or not it is sustainable over the long term will have to be seen.

As for your getting an battery replaced in an iPhone, we have been doing this for years and years. We have bought used phones on Swappa and ebay, for that matter, too.

But take this as an example. Last time i had the battery replaced by a third party vendor (Apple does this too, btw), I upgraded to a new iPhone at the same time and kept the old one working as a back-up. Why? Because new features and because the thing has become so indispensable that the thought of being without one even for a day or two is really bad, and it actually helps to have a couple of them running at the same time - like having two monitors.

Again, you can nitpick the details, but you are fighting the trend. Do so, and reside forever in the rear view mirror.

* and as for not initiating new technology that is worth upgrading, that has been the worry forever, but they keep making it somehow. Apples latest quarter results showed solid growth numbers, just not up to the analyst expectations and at a slightly lower rate than before.

I believe their explanation about supply chain issues, esp. about chip production shortfalls.

I don't have all my eggs in one basket, regardless. But it has been delivering and may very well continue to do so.

Better camera, so there. Back atcha.