They won last year too, Ritz is slower and Ramer is faster. Their team is impressive, but doesn't seem to be the caliber of NXN team champion. I think Ritz being ranked 1 on several sites is just hopes and dreams, not based on the talent that is currently in the US.
They won last year too, Ritz is slower and Ramer is faster. Their team is impressive, but doesn't seem to be the caliber of NXN team champion. I think Ritz being ranked 1 on several sites is just hopes and dreams, not based on the talent that is currently in the US.
I do not disagree with you but would say that
13 girls under 19 minutes (7 freshmen) is pretty darn legit. They will be knocking on nxn door for a few more years
As a CO xc fan would have liked to see their # 3-5 a little under 18 last night to think they had a title shot.
Heritage girls showed a little chink in their armor as well with their 4/5. it is still September though.
They won last year too, Ritz is slower and Ramer is faster. Their team is impressive, but doesn't seem to be the caliber of NXN team champion. I think Ritz being ranked 1 on several sites is just hopes and dreams, not based on the talent that is currently in the US.
I do not disagree with you but would say that
13 girls under 19 minutes (7 freshmen) is pretty darn legit. They will be knocking on nxn door for a few more years
As a CO xc fan would have liked to see their # 3-5 a little under 18 last night to think they had a title shot.
Heritage girls showed a little chink in their armor as well with their 4/5. it is still September though.
No doubt they are talented! Very talented. And deep! I think Heritage has very good top girls, it will be interesting to see how they progress this season. Now, looking at results from yesterday, Guiberson from Vista was very impressive at the Dave Sanders meet! Course record. I think she's going under the radar. She seems to be improving this year.
I know it’s early but who will win and qualify for NXN next year as a team and individuals? Will Vista be as dominant with losing five seniors?
Last year their 5th scored 48. This year their 7th scored 22. They are much better this year than last year. And with so many good freshmen, they have serious upside.
I know it’s early but who will win and qualify for NXN next year as a team and individuals? Will Vista be as dominant with losing five seniors?
Last year their 5th scored 48. This year their 7th scored 22. They are much better this year than last year. And with so many good freshmen, they have serious upside.
Their JV would have been third in the sweepstakes race. A little later im going to put Heritage spped ratings from yesterday into twighlight and visa versa to see how the two compare.
I did this on the boys thread, so I thought I’d replicate here. I ran a 1000-race simulation using existing Tullyrunners’ speed ratings to imagine how a national race would go if it were ran today.
Assumptions: -I didn’t limit entries based on NXN regions, so you’ll see the SW is overrepresented in this exercise. -I edited a couple of teams where I personally happened to know that good runners ran in one meet but not another, but generally speaking, this is just best team ratings on the day compared to other teams best races. -I tweaked Niwot’s scores to give them Ritzenhein and Prok’s average speed rating from last year to include them in this exercise.
Team Win Odds (%) Projected Score (Mean) 1. JSerra Catholic (SS) 45.5 180 2. Union Catholic 41.8 182 3. Webb School of Knoxville 214 4. Brentwood 1.2 241 5. Lone Peak 0.2 251 6. Heritage 1.0 251 7. Buchanan (CS) 0.1 286 8. Shenendehowa 0.0 286 9. Bridgeland 0.0 293 10. Niwot 0.0 300 11. Air Academy 0.0 305 12. Champlain Valley Union 0.0 318 13. Ann Arbor Pioneer 0.0 318 14. Mountain Vista 0.0 321 15. El Toro (SS) 0.0 333 16. ThunderRidge 0.0 351 17. Carmel 0.0 366 18. Oak Park (SS) 0.0 366 19. Flower Mound 0.0 389 20. St. Francis (SJ) 0.0 424
Let me know if I missed any clear top 20s based on existing speed ratings. But from where we stand in September, the race looks to be pretty wide open. I'd say the top 5 all have a realistic chance at the title.
Wow, pretty impressive that Shen’s #8 even though they are 4-deep after one of their top 5 returners switching to soccer.
They won last year too, Ritz is slower and Ramer is faster. Their team is impressive, but doesn't seem to be the caliber of NXN team champion. I think Ritz being ranked 1 on several sites is just hopes and dreams, not based on the talent that is currently in the US.
Ritz looking to peak in November. Correct she is not the favorite, but pretty sure to be in the mix of top 5-10 and race well at nxn.
Not really a clear leader this year, but I picked Alder.
I'm expecting a pretty big shakeup in Dyestat's national rankings after the last two weekends. Several highly ranked schools were beaten by schools who were ranked lower or who were completely unranked.
I'm expecting a pretty big shakeup in Dyestat's national rankings after the last two weekends. Several highly ranked schools were beaten by schools who were ranked lower or who were completely unranked.
We still have to wait another 10 days for those. Another weekend of racing to help shape those coming up.
Niwot girls were very impressive. They had 12 girls (including 6 freshman) run 18:41 or faster at Desert Twilight and that is with 2 of their returning varsity sitting out. Elise Hagen didn't race and she's ran 4:54/10:33 this past spring (and dipped under 18 on this course last year). I think their depth will really help them when it comes to NXR and NXN. I wouldn't count them out as a potential team contender.