Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

I simply believe valuations matter, and that Hussman, Grantham, Gundlach, Kumar, etc. have the correct market interpretation. The fact that Fed policies take a market from 50% overvalued to 70% does not negate that view; it only delays the reversion. Of course many believe there is something durable to the excessive market returns for a passive investor. Just look at the nonsense investors believe in today, the catalogue largely heads your list of one year returns.

I am just giving my view, and I am not afraid to be wrong. Unfortunately, I think I will be correct, and most investors are unprepared for a real rough time.

Igy

understood

does sound like you have a set view and you are going out and searching for analysts who agree with your view.

obviously, that is a bit suboptimal., imho

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

I simply believe valuations matter, and that Hussman, Grantham, Gundlach, Kumar, etc. have the correct market interpretation. The fact that Fed policies take a market from 50% overvalued to 70% does not negate that view; it only delays the reversion. Of course many believe there is something durable to the excessive market returns for a passive investor. Just look at the nonsense investors believe in today, the catalogue largely heads your list of one year returns.

I am just giving my view, and I am not afraid to be wrong. Unfortunately, I think I will be correct, and most investors are unprepared for a real rough time.

Igy

understood

does sound like you have a set view and you are going out and searching for analysts who agree with your view.

obviously, that is a bit suboptimal., imho

agip,

Perhaps. However, if I am correct there is no penalty, and I will not be suboptimal.

Anyway, need to get back on the roof and paint some fascia. House is coming along nicely.

Hope you are well.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

understood

does sound like you have a set view and you are going out and searching for analysts who agree with your view.

obviously, that is a bit suboptimal., imho

agip,

Perhaps. However, if I am correct there is no penalty, and I will not be suboptimal.

Anyway, need to get back on the roof and paint some fascia. House is coming along nicely.

Hope you are well.

Igy

excellent.

I'm ok - nursed a small injury for a couple weeks but I think I'm back at it now. Fingers crossed.

To be fair, Hussman was right once.

Glad you are excellent. Best to be cautious after 50. I painted a house in my late 50s while still running hard. The ladder work took me out with an achilles injury. So this time with being over ten years older just bagging the running until I get my project complete. Good general training actually with all the climbing and reaching.

friendly reminder to always buy the dip.

One day our grand-kids will ask us about the pre-pandemic times, and we'll tell them about how there used to be days when stocks actually went down!

Or, how foolish it was to believe in fantasy.

Racket, PhD wrote:friendly reminder to always buy the dip.

I'm more inclined to sell these days than buy. I went more into cash yesterday. It'll take a big dip to get me to start spending again. Mind you, I'll retire sometime in the next 5 to 15 years and want to protect my fragile, tiny nest egg... :-)

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:friendly reminder to always buy the dip.

I'm more inclined to sell these days than buy. I went more into cash yesterday. It'll take a big dip to get me to start spending again. Mind you, I'll retire sometime in the next 5 to 15 years and want to protect my fragile, tiny nest egg... :-)

VIX under 20? Buy

Racket, PhD wrote:

friendly reminder to always buy the dip.

One day our grand-kids will ask us about the pre-pandemic times, and we'll tell them about how there used to be days when stocks actually went down!

Yes, stocks did indeed go down. They went down all the way down to 18,500 (for the Dow) and in a very quick 5 months rebounded from 18,500 all the way to 30,000. They are now approaching 33,000. There is so much money out there seeking the best investment and nothing comes close to the stock market's perennial 11% return. Nothing is close.

Sally Vix wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:

friendly reminder to always buy the dip.

One day our grand-kids will ask us about the pre-pandemic times, and we'll tell them about how there used to be days when stocks actually went down!

Yes, stocks did indeed go down. They went down all the way down to 18,500 (for the Dow) and in a very quick 5 months rebounded from 18,500 all the way to 30,000. They are now approaching 33,000. There is so much money out there seeking the best investment and nothing comes close to the stock market's perennial 11% return. Nothing is close.

No one likes you. Just leave

Small caps down 3% today!

that's a serious crack in the firmament.

Suggests some doubt about the strength of the economy in the 2H21.

Probably the covid resurgence has something to do with that.

Airlines down 4% today, suggesting covid fears.

agip wrote:

Small caps down 3% today!

that's a serious crack in the firmament.

Suggests some doubt about the strength of the economy in the 2H21.

Probably the covid resurgence has something to do with that.

Airlines down 4% today, suggesting covid fears.

No way. It was just overbought. People are gonna spend money and travel, but not THAT much money and travel

Racket, PhD wrote:

agip wrote:

Small caps down 3% today!

that's a serious crack in the firmament.

Suggests some doubt about the strength of the economy in the 2H21.

Probably the covid resurgence has something to do with that.

Airlines down 4% today, suggesting covid fears.

No way. It was just overbought. People are gonna spend money and travel, but not THAT much money and travel

the fear no one wants to talk about is a variant that the existing vaccines can't beat.

every day with another rise in global cases makes that more likely, with many more bodies to mutate in.

imagine waking up and seeing in the WSJ that all this vaccination we've done is useless and we have to start over. Chaos. markets would not like it.

agip wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:

No way. It was just overbought. People are gonna spend money and travel, but not THAT much money and travel

the fear no one wants to talk about is a variant that the existing vaccines can't beat.

every day with another rise in global cases makes that more likely, with many more bodies to mutate in.

imagine waking up and seeing in the WSJ that all this vaccination we've done is useless and we have to start over. Chaos. markets would not like it.

And we can thank you Democrats for causing it with these ridiculous lockdowns preventing herd immunity.

Dementia Joe: Make China Great Again

Johannes wrote:

To be fair, Hussman was right once.

And today, along with 2021.....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Johannes wrote:

To be fair, Hussman was right once.

And today, along with 2021.....

2021 just started.

Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 22, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 7.51%, Germany's DAXK is in second is with a gain of 6.52% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a gain of 6.30%. Coming in last is China's Shanghai with a loss of 0.85%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/22/world-markets-update-march-22-2021?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign&utm_content&utm_term&bt_ee=i%2FJnfEhUQhONgvVnF5Jvx%2FfrSxgtu%2BDOx5hE5D19FleKDaxTygGYdh4R7ghbmX0%2F&bt_ts=1616547068187