Down goes the Dow

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 8 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 8 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

noice.

agip, hurry up with those number that show the US ahead of China like always. No funny business like using YoY or anything that would prove me wrong either.

Dr. Racket wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 8 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 7 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

noice.

agip, hurry up with those number that show the US ahead of China like always. No funny business like using YoY or anything that would prove me wrong either.

ok here's what you asked for, probs anyway:

5 years

China +26% per year

USA +16% per year

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance

OMG that’s just awful. Deserving of its one star rating.

captain o wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Who cares about the past

Historians.

I don't think they do. Their job is to create a fanciful past that serves the narrative that the ruling elites are selling

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1373276511889940485

guaranteed: During every bull market some bear came up with the same formulation:

"if one fact is glaringly clear in stock market history, when X happens (and it's happening now!) the market is about to collapse."

Point is, there's always something wrong with the market that corresponds to previous problems. The stock market is a very large, diverse place.

Is there any doubt something like this soon will happen to a major bitcoin player? Has to be bearish for crypto.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/squares-cash-app-vulnerable-to-hackers-customers-claim-113556593.html

1 month

GME +393

Retail +15

BTC +15

Energy +7

Financials +6

Value +5

Hussman +5

REITS +2

USA 0

Non-US developed 0

Small Caps 0

ST TIPS 0

US Large Caps 0

60/40 -1

TIPS -1

Consumer Discretionary -1

High Yield -1

Inter Treas -2

Gold -2

Corp Bonds -3

Weed -4

Vanguard momo -5

Emerging -6

Tech -6

China -15

VXX -15

TSLA -16

ARKK -20

Same story as last week...value and Hussman doing well.

Tech and emerging in the dumpster

One year

We are just 3 days shy of the COVID bottom a year ago. Huge numbers here.

GME +4,679%

BTC +862

TSLA +665

ARKK +228

Retail +215!!!

Weed +158

Consumer Discretionary +127

Small Caps +110

Energy +107

Vanguard Momo +107

China +92

Financials +83

Tech +82

USA +74

Emerging +74

Non-USA developed +72

SP500 +66

Value +60

REITS +49

60/40 +42

High Yield +27

Corp Bonds +25

Gold +18

Hussman +15

TIPS +14

ST TIPS +11

Treasuries 0

VXX -79

surprising to me:

Tech and financials are the same

old retail has crushed everything in its path

TIPS +14% vs straight treasures 0. That's amazing. Probably time to buy treasuries.

Retail has done the same as turbocharged ARKK. Geez.

Here's 5 years.

But first, an introduction from John Hussman. From March 2016, right at the start of this period. Was he bullish or bearish?

Yeah bearish, right before one of the best periods for US investing in a long time.

Here:

From a long-term investment standpoint, the stock market remains obscenely overvalued, with the most historically-reliable measures we identify presently consistent with zero 10-12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns, and negative expected real returns on both horizons.

From a cyclical standpoint, I continue to expect that the completion of the current market cycle will likely take the S&P 500 down by about 40-55% from present levels; an outcome that would not be an outlier or worst-case scenario, but instead a rather run-of-the-mill cycle completion from present valuations. If you are a historically-informed investor who is optimistic enough to reject the idea that the financial markets are forever doomed to extreme valuations and dismal long-term returns, you should be rooting for this cycle to be completed. If you are a passive investor, you should at least align your current exposure with your investment horizon and your tolerance for cyclical risk, which we expect to be similar to what we anticipated in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. For more data and detail on these views, see The Next Big Short: The Third Crest of a Rolling Tsunami, and Rarefied Air: Valuations and Subsequent Market Returns.

...

To his credit, he said he was short term neutral on the market.

///

John's predictions were not accurate.

5 years, all figures annualized

BTC +170%

TSLA +118

ARKK +48

GME +46

Tech +28

China +26

Consumer Discretionary +21

USA +17

Small Caps +16

Retail +16

SP500 +16

Financials +15

Value +13

Emerging +12

Non US developed +10

60/40+10

REITS +10

Gold +6

High Yield +6

Corp Bonds +5

TIPS +4

ST Treas +3

Weed +3

Inter Treas +2

Energy -1

Hussman -3

certainly a golden age for tech investing. 28% per year for five years. Astonishing.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160321.htm

Current Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen on Housing Bubble in 2005:

In my view, it makes sense to organize one's thinking around three consecutive questions --three hurdles to jump before pulling the monetary policy trigger. First, if the bubble were to deflate on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble?

My answers to these questions in the shortest possible form are, "no," "no," and "no."

Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell December 2018:

I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose, I don’t see us changing that.

Wall Street predictions for 2008, an average of 1,670 S&P 500 price target on EPS of $92. Interestingly, the S&P 500 would not reach that level until mid-year 2013. S&P 500 EPS for 2020 is about that same $92 with the market trading double that of the 2008 Wall Street prediction. To in any way down play the extent of this bubble really lack credibility, IMHO.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB119768725735731187?tesla=y

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 2016:

In fact, some have complained that the lower path for the funds rate this year represents an inexplicable deviation from past policy norms. A reporter described these complaints to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the most recent FOMC press conference (Board of Governors 2016b): “Madam Chair, critics of the Federal Reserve have said that you look for any excuse not to hike, that the goalpost constantly moves.” Such critics have accused the Fed of reacting to transitory, episodic factors, such as financial market volatility, in a manner very different from past systematic Fed policy responses to underlying economic fundamentals.

Copying went awry, here you go, open admission by John Hussman of being wrong. By the way, no admission from any of the previous wrong prognosticators, including Janet, Jerome, and select Wall Street firms:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1371836476804173828/photo/1

well, ok, so a lot of people have made poor predictions. Hussman included.

Why then do you cite Hussman (or anyone) as a source?