Down goes the Dow

Oh okay. Thanks for the nice and informative explanation.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I can tell you one thing, and it has little to do with John Hussman or stock valuations, the market has to have cheap money. And money is more expensive today, and all Fed jawboning did not stop the rise.

I see some things never change.

6 years and counting.

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I can tell you one thing, and it has little to do with John Hussman or stock valuations, the market has to have cheap money. And money is more expensive today, and all Fed jawboning did not stop the rise.

I see some things never change.

6 years and counting.

Yes, especially your non-stop trolling, melon head.

A glimpse into a Troll’s future stock portfolio:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1372270702888386567

Translated for a retiree (hint, that financial plan needs to be revised):

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1370010013897474051

*very* roughly sure ok

Anyway, interesting action today.

Bond yields skying to new cyclical highs yet stocks shrugging them off and basically flat on the day.

did jerome innoculate the market from its knee-jerk sell orders when rates rise?

agip wrote:

let's say you are 75 years old and retired. You have a nice portfolio but not enormous. A 50% drawdown would permanently hurt your life quality. Because taking withdrawals from a portfolio when it is down pretty much means you'll never catch up. You'd have to permanently reduce your spending levels if a long bear market started early in your retirement.

In that case there would be real value in having a fund that reduces your potential downside. Keeps your max drawdown to, say, 10% rather than 20%. Would have a long and lasting benefit to your financial condition should there be an extended bear market.

I get this, but I think there are sound financial plans that do a better job with situations like this (bucket plan, etc.). And I understand that an investor’s age makes a difference, but the longest bear market in U.S. history was less than three years long. If done properly, theoretically there would be no downside. There are better investment avenues than investing in a loser fund to hedge against other potential losses (imho).

longest bear market is 3 years? You'd have to define your terms there. That doesn't sound right. I mean the Great Depression, for Ben Bernanke's sake.

and

obviously we have the example of a 30 year downmarket in Japan and Europe has gone sideways for a couple decades, with some bad dips.

the non-US developed world has pretty much done nothing after inflation since 2007.

Thinking the US market is immune to these things is not being clear-eyed.

But look, I agree with your premise -that there are better ways to protect capital than Hussman. I use a 60/40 portfolio as a baseline. But doesn't mean it will work if things go sour.

This is interesting:

Vanguard's big venerable tech fund, VGT is up 2.7% year to date (average market cap: $236 bn)

An equally weighted tech fund, RYT is up double that, 5.7% (average market cap: $43 bn)

The broad market is up around 7% (average market cap $100 bn)

So both tech funds are underperforming the market, but big tech is the problem, not sm/mid tech.

From March 2000 high the S&P 500 did not reach a new sustainable high for 13 years, for the NASDAQ it took 16 years. At that 2000 high the 10 Year Treasury was above 5%. There were many financial plans blown up during this period. Pension plan stress and variable annuity sponsor failures alone prove this statement is true.

One is free to argue this is not a massive unsustainable bubble. We are all entitled to our view, and I will continue to invest accordingly. At worst, anything I miss in the stock market will be more than made up in the real estate market.

agip wrote:

longest bear market is 3 years? You'd have to define your terms there. That doesn't sound right.

I found several references to the 34 month bear market associated with the Great Depression as being the longest in U.S. history. Here’s a graph dating back to 1926.

Financial Advisor wrote:

agip wrote:

longest bear market is 3 years? You'd have to define your terms there. That doesn't sound right.

I found several references to the 34 month bear market associated with the Great Depression as being the longest in U.S. history. Here’s a graph dating back to 1926.

https://www.raymondjames.com/neunuebelbarrantes/pdfs/history-of-market-corrections.pdf

Typical Wall Street propaganda. A bear market has little to do with the failure of a financial plan. It is more a function of the sequence of return during the early period of withdrawals, and the asset allocation at that time.

all time high today for the Dow

big down day for growth but value stocks are down just 33 bps.

going by VTV

I guess Jerome didn't quite innoculate the market against high rate fever.

[quote]agip wrote:

all time high today for the Dow

Odd claim given the Dow ended the day down 150 points

The Unkle wrote:

Odd claim given the Dow ended the day down 150 points

Intra-day, you nugget

Calamity Joe wrote:

captain o wrote:

You will add to your position, if you think it will underperform?

Why would you own ANY of that horrendous fund? It has the lowest Morningstar rating, has lost 80% of its investors and has the pretty much the worst performance record of anything around. Plus sky high annual fees. Serious question - why would you ever buy that crap? Because that is what it is. You have to be a troll.

Made up more than half the annual fee today, while the market was down. That trend will continue the rest of the year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Calamity Joe wrote:

Why would you own ANY of that horrendous fund? It has the lowest Morningstar rating, has lost 80% of its investors and has the pretty much the worst performance record of anything around. Plus sky high annual fees. Serious question - why would you ever buy that crap? Because that is what it is. You have to be a troll.

Made up more than half the annual fee today, while the market was down. That trend will continue the rest of the year.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote

Indeed it did!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Financial Advisor wrote:

I found several references to the 34 month bear market associated with the Great Depression as being the longest in U.S. history. Here’s a graph dating back to 1926.

https://www.raymondjames.com/neunuebelbarrantes/pdfs/history-of-market-corrections.pdf

Typical Wall Street propaganda. A bear market has little to do with the failure of a financial plan. It is more a function of the sequence of return during the early period of withdrawals, and the asset allocation at that time.

Thank you for helping me make my point.

Dr. Racket wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Odd claim given the Dow ended the day down 150 points

Intra-day, you nugget

Who cares about the past