all time high SP500
price to sales is actually worrisome, because there's much less accounting.
Sales are sales.
What's wrong about comparing price to sales over generations is that the markets are much more tech and service oriented, now compared to before, and those industries get much higher price to sales multiples. Justifiably. b/c margins are much better in those businesses.
http://www.rudygarns.com/class/110/lib/exe/fetch.php/theseus_ship.gifagip wrote:
all time high SP500
price to sales is actually worrisome, because there's much less accounting.
Sales are sales.
What's wrong about comparing price to sales over generations is that the markets are much more tech and service oriented, now compared to before, and those industries get much higher price to sales multiples. Justifiably. b/c margins are much better in those businesses.
Yield curve continues to steepen. Every week it gets steeper. Steepest since 2015.
I've been in the short end of the curve mostly with my money, which has been good, but at some point probably soon I think I'll switch to the long end. I mean the Fed is going to get steamrolled here on the short end and have to raise rates. That would take away a year of return from short bonds making nothing.
You can't have an economy grow 8% and have short rates plastered to nothing.
That should’t happen at 5.9% growth.
There is an interest rate where this entire phony market structure blows up. And there is zero the Fed can do to influence the outcome.
The Russian disinformation site is spreading propaganda about Cathie Wood. Talk about un-American.
Did some harvesting...sold TMUS (+51%) and MSFT (+48%). I might not be done.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That should’t happen at 5.9% growth.
There is an interest rate where this entire phony market structure blows up. And there is zero the Fed can do to influence the outcome.
wait, which is it?
Is the Fed all-powerful and able to hold up the stock market by itself...
or is the Fed impotent to rescue the stock market?
https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1372127538298900481?s=20Big Dog Investments wrote:
Did some harvesting...sold TMUS (+51%) and MSFT (+48%). I might not be done.
Some fun 1 year numbers
ARKK +254%
China +93
Tech +92
USA +76
EM +72
60/40 +41
Hussman +13
Bonds +2
Run those same YTD.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Run those same YTD.
YTD
Hussman +11
US Value +10
USA +7
EM +6
China +3
Tech +3
60/40 +2
ARKK +1
Bonds -4!
Thanks. Bonds, definitely getting hit.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Thanks. Bonds, definitely getting hit.
bonds here are interesting - in funds that balance between losing NAV but getting larger coupons.
It's a slow process but eventually holders of bond funds will start to see their monthly dividends grow. I'm quite ready for that.
But of course the biggest question is inflation...no doubt we'll have some over the summer and fall, but with this much advance notice I'd be surprised if the invisible hand isn't working hard to produce all the widgets that will be needed by winter. In that case bonds won't get punished much more than they have already. Plus that giant whooshing sound will be billion of dollars flowing into the country to buy treasuries paying actual positive interest. While in europe rates are far lower.
agip wrote:
https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1372127538298900481?s=20Big Dog Investments wrote:
Did some harvesting...sold TMUS (+51%) and MSFT (+48%). I might not be done.
I'll take that as an "attaboy" since GS's predictions are about as valuable as Igy's.
agip wrote:
but with this much advance notice I'd be surprised if the invisible hand isn't working hard to produce all the widgets that will be needed by winter.
chip shortage leading to massive infaltion in graphics cards and consoles and stalling auto assembly lines, lumber and raw material costs are through the roof right now.
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of widgets.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That should’t happen at 5.9% growth.
There is an interest rate where this entire phony market structure blows up. And there is zero the Fed can do to influence the outcome.
wait, which is it?
Is the Fed all-powerful and able to hold up the stock market by itself...
or is the Fed impotent to rescue the stock market?
Remember my analogy, about the Yankees?
Dr. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
wait, which is it?
Is the Fed all-powerful and able to hold up the stock market by itself...
or is the Fed impotent to rescue the stock market?
Remember my analogy, about the Yankees?
I should have footnoted you ja
