Down goes the Dow

Detached......as in unsupported.....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

common cents wrote:

And now for the rest of the story...

https://imgur.com/download/y1tteDc/

Year to date HSGFX outperforms S&P 500, Dow, and lags NASDAQ Composite by 0.65%. Double the Dow. If he is down another week, I will double my position.

YTD is a drop in the bucket compared to a decade of underperformance. No, Scratch that: two decades.

And his outperformance you site for YTD is no more than 3 percent higher than the SNP 500 index, if that. And you and i both know that can be wiped out in a day. But what won't disappear are his fund fees well in excess of one percent.

What i get from Hussman is that gains, albeit unrealized gains, are a liability. And they are a liability simply because even though you may have had the foresight and good judgement to not follow his recommendations, and thereby actually appreciate your assets (unlike his funds), you now have something to lose.

Of course, one could sell at any time and convert though unrealized gains into realized gains, but that seems to elude John Hussman.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1363208658956546048

Hussman's arrogance is astonishing

Wall Street arrogance has always been astounding.

Pretty clear that a reasonable person would look at valuations of stocks and bonds and see that Hussman is correct. In fa t there have been many voices with similar views. But I get it. The game goes on with no pain. We’ll see how long that view lasts. Likely as long as the Fed feeds the bubble.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Pretty clear that a reasonable person would look at valuations of stocks and bonds and see that Hussman is correct. In fa t there have been many voices with similar views. But I get it. The game goes on with no pain. We’ll see how long that view lasts. Likely as long as the Fed feeds the bubble.

by arrogant I'm saying that he cites, in 2021, a post from 2 years ago saying how bad stocks would do.

Instead, stocks do tremendous, remarkably well during that time frame, but instead of acknowledging the facts on the ground, in front of our eyes, now that we know the results. he says he was right all the time.

That's arrogance defined.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Pretty clear that a reasonable person would look at valuations of stocks and bonds and see that Hussman is correct. In fa t there have been many voices with similar views. But I get it. The game goes on with no pain. We’ll see how long that view lasts. Likely as long as the Fed feeds the bubble.

by arrogant I'm saying that he cites, in 2021, a post from 2 years ago saying how bad stocks would do.

Instead, stocks do tremendous, remarkably well during that time frame, but instead of acknowledging the facts on the ground, in front of our eyes, now that we know the results. he says he was right all the time.

That's arrogance defined.

although I suppose he'd say he was talking about a 36 year time frame and not a 2 year time frame. Which is a fair defense.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1363208658956546048

Hussman's arrogance is astonishing

It’s no wonder Igy likes him. Peas in a pod.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

by arrogant I'm saying that he cites, in 2021, a post from 2 years ago saying how bad stocks would do.

Instead, stocks do tremendous, remarkably well during that time frame, but instead of acknowledging the facts on the ground, in front of our eyes, now that we know the results. he says he was right all the time.

That's arrogance defined.

although I suppose he'd say he was talking about a 36 year time frame and not a 2 year time frame. Which is a fair defense.

although right back at me, for Hussman, a guy with a 20+ year return of 0.80% per year in his flagship fund, to claim that anyone not listening to his stock market prognostications is a fool...is yeah arrogance defined.

I believe he actually does; at least from my reading. Today, with yields low, and stock valuations high a passive pension 10/30/60 T-Bill, T-Bond, Stock would need to be pre-funded x-years to meet its funding obligation. The two years ago just refers to his initial piece illustrating the challenge for pension managers when valuations are extended. GMO did a similar piece a few years back. One reason pensions reached to hedge funds, then only to get wacked. Challenges, as you know, have killed the variable annuity industry, and hurt insurance funding generally. The downside to Fed activist policies.

Gruntz wrote:

agip wrote:

Hussman's arrogance is astonishing

It’s no wonder Igy likes him. Peas in a pod.

Gruntz’s obsession is astonishing.

Let’s talk some more about my auto and home loans.?

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

although I suppose he'd say he was talking about a 36 year time frame and not a 2 year time frame. Which is a fair defense.

although right back at me, for Hussman, a guy with a 20+ year return of 0.80% per year in his flagship fund, to claim that anyone not listening to his stock market prognostications is a fool...is yeah arrogance defined.

Well, the NASDAQ was far worse than that for a fifteen year period five years ago. I would assume that will be repeated, in fact I am betting on it. Ark Funds will be the Hussman of the next 15-20 years. That is if they are still around, which I doubt.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

It’s no wonder Igy likes him. Peas in a pod.

Gruntz’s obsession is astonish.

Let’s talk some more about my auto and home loans.?

Why are you trying to change the subject? Are you afraid the inevitable comparison to Trump is coming again?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

It just seems funny that a guy who complains about stocks being overvalued, literally borrowed money to buy a car that’s overvalued.

OK. My Porsche was purely a discretionary purchase. The last car I will buy for myself in my life. The bigger question is why does my car or house purchase give you such a hard-on, while others throw money at Bitcoin while calling it an jnvestment?

Coulda had a slightly used 996 Turbo for the same price

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

although right back at me, for Hussman, a guy with a 20+ year return of 0.80% per year in his flagship fund, to claim that anyone not listening to his stock market prognostications is a fool...is yeah arrogance defined.

Well, the NASDAQ was far worse than that for a fifteen year period five years ago. I would assume that will be repeated, in fact I am betting on it. Ark Funds will be the Hussman of the next 15-20 years. That is if they are still around, which I doubt.

that's not really fair because the Nasdaq is long only and Hussman is roughly market neutral. The Nasd is not pretending to say that it can provide alpha...it's pure beta. Which it provides.

Hussman promises to provide alpha, does not, and then uses a superior tone when rationalizing his opinions, which have been wrong.

This is all old news and we've gone over it many times, but his tone in that piece you linked to irritated me. Esp since he blocked me on twitter.

agip wrote:

Esp since he blocked me on twitter.

Proud of you, man.

Stew wrote:

agip wrote:

Esp since he blocked me on twitter.

Proud of you, man.

+1