Down goes the Dow

Yes, I admit. I am suffering every day.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 83% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 79% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 79% is the final percentage, it will mark the third-highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

Funniest thing about your post is the S&P 500 GAAP EPS is 34% lower than a year ago and FactSet spins it as a positive. Well, I suppose that is why the market it up. Looking forward of course. ?

not sure about the gaap/non gaap issue, but GS thinks SP500 rose year over year 4Q20.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, I admit. I am suffering every day.

BOOM

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, I admit. I am suffering every day.

I would be too, if I was still paying for a car and house.

GS and MS will pick the higher of GAAP and non-GAAP. Their fake metric. A write down of assets in energy in June could produce a write up in December. So down GAAP in June, up non-GAAP in December. As usual, painting a narrative where it is always up. Clearly using S&P 500 EPS report there has been damage, If not, what are we doing at the Fed or in the Government? Not to say either or is justified.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, I admit. I am suffering every day.

I would be too, if I was still paying for a car and house.

Yes, my terrible life decisions.

It just seems funny that a guy who complains about stocks being overvalued, literally borrowed money to buy a car that’s overvalued.

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

It just seems funny that a guy who complains about stocks being overvalued, literally borrowed money to buy a car that’s overvalued.

OK. My Porsche was purely a discretionary purchase. The last car I will buy for myself in my life. The bigger question is why does my car or house purchase give you such a hard-on, while others throw money at Bitcoin while calling it an jnvestment?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

It just seems funny that a guy who complains about stocks being overvalued, literally borrowed money to buy a car that’s overvalued.

OK. My Porsche was purely a discretionary purchase. The last car I will buy for myself in my life. The bigger question is why does my car or house purchase give you such a hard-on, while others throw money at Bitcoin while calling it an jnvestment?

A. You don’t take out a loan for a discretionary purchase.

B. You will buy another car.

C. A woman cannot get a “hard on”. (Can you?)

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK. My Porsche was purely a discretionary purchase. The last car I will buy for myself in my life. The bigger question is why does my car or house purchase give you such a hard-on, while others throw money at Bitcoin while calling it an jnvestment?

A. You don’t take out a loan for a discretionary purchase.

B. You will buy another car.

C. A woman cannot get a “hard on”. (Can you?)

That is your life. I have bought half a dozen cars on credit in my life. Three of them I still own. So what? You have a hard-on regardless of your gender.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

porsche cayman phan? wrote:

A. You don’t take out a loan for a discretionary purchase.

B. You will buy another car.

C. A woman cannot get a “hard on”. (Can you?)

That is your life. I have bought half a dozen cars on credit in my life. Three of them I still own. So what? You have a hard-on regardless of your gender.

You are ignorant on many levels.

3m

GME +225

BTC +206

Weed Stonks +87

TSLA +56

Retail +38

Energy +30

Vanguard momentum: +29

China +28

Sm Caps +21

Financials +20

Emerging +18

Consumer Discr +17

Tech +14

USA +12

Developed non-US +11

Value +10

Hussman +9

REITs +6

Short term TIPS +2

TIPS 0

Inter Treas -1

Gold -4

VXX -19

Everyone made good money but the meme stocks made a gawdawful amount.

Tech outperforming, but barely, and not really leading.

Emerging/china doing quite well.

Vol strategies catastrophic.

Hussman now underperforming

These are some very large number, obvi.

Today is roughly exactly one year since the market topped out before the COVID dive. These numbers will get much, much larger each week.

1 year

GME +878

BTC +493

TSLA +325

China +81

Retail +78

Weed Stocks +59

Consumer Discr +48

Vanguard momentum +43

Tech +38

Emerging +30

Sm Caps +29

Hussman +25

USA +22

non-US developed +16

Generic global balanced portfolio +15%

VXX +11

Gold +10

Financials +7

Value +7

TIPS +7

Short term TIPS +5

Treas +4

energy -10

REITs -6

That value performance is just terrible. And those guys look at the meme stocks and roll their eyes. That has to hurt.

Hussman outperforming

Vol strategy outperforming bonds

China and emerging leading

for the last 10-20 years to get a special kick to your portfolio you've owned tech. It's been consistently higher vol but higher return. I wonder if that is changing...that if you want that extra kick you go to meme stocks instead of generic tech. Works until it doesn't, I suppose.

and the old joke...imagine if you went to sleep 2/20/20 and just woke up, look at your Robin Hood statement and see a 22% return. Solid year! Boomtime!

I wonder if that vanguard momentum fund is a good way to capture the current investing environment, of money chasing a few names or sectors. You don't have to pick the right stock or sector - it does it for you.

But if you have a weak hand you sell the dips instead of buying them. Classic problem of chasing stocks rather than buy and hold the index, I suppose.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1362893901401587714

"again" being the correct key word whenever we talk about hussman, since he says that for every market condition.

But he's been killing it recently, no doubt.

And now for the rest of the story...

https://imgur.com/download/y1tteDc/

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1362893901401587714

"again" being the correct key word whenever we talk about hussman, since he says that for every market condition.

But he's been killing it recently, no doubt.

ICYMI:

“On Wall Street, urgent stupidity has one terminal symptom, and it is the belief that money is free. Investors have turned the market into a carnival, where everybody “knows” that the new rides are the good rides, and the old rides just don’t work. Where the carnival barkers seem to hand out free money just for showing up. Unfortunately, this business is not that kind – it has always been true that in every pyramid, in every easy-money sure-thing, the first ones to get out are the only ones to get out. We’ve seen two-tiered markets before: most prominently in 1929, 1968-69, and 1972. Even at those pre-crash extremes, the S&P never sold above 20 times record earnings. The market clearly faces problems at a multiple of 32. Technology stocks will ultimately fare worse. Over the past 5 years, the revenues of S&P 500 technology companies have grown at a compound annual rate of 12%, while the corresponding stock prices have soared by 56% annually. Over time, price/revenue ratios come back in line. Currently, that would require an 83% plunge in tech stocks (recall the 1969-70 tech massacre). The plunge may be muted to about 65% given several years of revenue growth. If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.”

– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., March 7, 2000

common cents wrote:

And now for the rest of the story...

https://imgur.com/download/y1tteDc/

Year to date HSGFX outperforms S&P 500, Dow, and lags NASDAQ Composite by 0.65%. Double the Dow. If he is down another week, I will double my position.