I did this on the boys thread, so I thought I’d replicate here. I ran a 1000-race simulation using existing Tullyrunners’ speed ratings to imagine how a national race would go if it were ran today.
Assumptions:
-I didn’t limit entries based on NXN regions, so you’ll see the SW is overrepresented in this exercise.
-I edited a couple of teams where I personally happened to know that good runners ran in one meet but not another, but generally speaking, this is just best team ratings on the day compared to other teams best races.
-I tweaked Niwot’s scores to give them Ritzenhein and Prok’s average speed rating from last year to include them in this exercise.
Team Win Odds (%) Projected Score (Mean)
1. JSerra Catholic (SS) 45.5 180
2. Union Catholic 41.8 182
3. Webb School of Knoxville 214
4. Brentwood 1.2 241
5. Lone Peak 0.2 251
6. Heritage 1.0 251
7. Buchanan (CS) 0.1 286
8. Shenendehowa 0.0 286
9. Bridgeland 0.0 293
10. Niwot 0.0 300
11. Air Academy 0.0 305
12. Champlain Valley Union 0.0 318
13. Ann Arbor Pioneer 0.0 318
14. Mountain Vista 0.0 321
15. El Toro (SS) 0.0 333
16. ThunderRidge 0.0 351
17. Carmel 0.0 366
18. Oak Park (SS) 0.0 366
19. Flower Mound 0.0 389
20. St. Francis (SJ) 0.0 424
Let me know if I missed any clear top 20s based on existing speed ratings. But from where we stand in September, the race looks to be pretty wide open. I'd say the top 5 all have a realistic chance at the title.
