Point is these are different things:
1) Being concerned
2) anti trust action getting anything done
3) anti-trust action hurting the stock price
4) the MSFT anti-trust action bringing on the dot com crash.
I'm not too worried. If AMZN has to sell off units, big deal. They'll be highly valued spinoffs.
I'm officially getting spooked...a dozen clients or so have been throwing money at their accounts.
Some of that is new year resolution stuff, but most of it is people seeing their huge 2020 gains and getting greedy.
This is bearish.
Great day for Tesla, Bitcoin, and Chinese EV companies...even though the overall market suffered.
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Flagpole wrote:...must have $1 million in investments, have zero debt including a paid-for house (or money separately set aside that pays for rent increases the rest of your life) and still doing 15% of income minimum into retirement accounts if still working.
The underlined and bolded part seems grossly overconservative for somebody who's had the diligence and discipline to have $1M invested (depending on their age and income I suppose), particularly in today's ultra-low interest rate environment.
In our case (granted I am an idiot), we carry debt worth about a third of the value of our assets. We could sell stuff to pay down that debt, which would certainly be the lowest risk approach, but our fairly careful examination of the alternatives doesn't incline us in that direction. Rent on the properties securing that debt more than covers the cost of the debt, and the properties are in markets we consider much more likely to appreciate than not, particularly over the medium to longer term). There is some chance we will do worse with this approach than we might otherwise, as there is risk with any investment strategy.
There are good reasons to avoid debt, but not all debt is bad or dangerous, and avoidance of debt risk may be prudent for most in many circumstances, but ruling it out as a legitimate option in some circumstances is, I think, short-sighted and perhaps ignorant.
Your attitude is all wrong. That doesn't mean you can't operate the way you are, but it carries with it extra risk.
THE BEST plan is to invest while at the same time getting rid of debt. You do not put off investing. The only time you need to have ZERO debt including a paid for house is if you buy individual stocks. Why pay ANY money on interest to anyone? Yes it's low right now, but so what? If you pay it off, you are guaranteed not to owe that interest and guaranteed not to have to make that payment on the principle.
The borrower is slave to the lender. Why be a slave to anyone? Invest 15% or more AND get rid of debt. THAT is the best plan.
Flagpole wrote:
Why pay ANY money on interest to anyone? Yes it's low right now, but so what? If you pay it off, you are guaranteed not to owe that interest and guaranteed not to have to make that payment on the principle.
The borrower is slave to the lender. Why be a slave to anyone? Invest 15% or more AND get rid of debt. THAT is the best plan.
Oh, snap!
Oh Snap, Hussman takes the lead on the first day of trading up +1.30%!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh Snap, Hussman takes the lead on the first day of trading up +1.30%!
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote
Now, if you had actually bought that 318 12/17 QQQ Put on 12/30/2020, you would be up over 7.7% ! ( 33.69 - 36.29 at midpoint ).
https://imgflip.com/i/4skquxGhost of Igloi wrote:
Oh Snap, Hussman takes the lead on the first day of trading up +1.30%!
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote
Can I get a “woot woot”? One day in a row!
Flagpole wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
The underlined and bolded part seems grossly overconservative for somebody who's had the diligence and discipline to have $1M invested (depending on their age and income I suppose), particularly in today's ultra-low interest rate environment.
In our case (granted I am an idiot), we carry debt worth about a third of the value of our assets. We could sell stuff to pay down that debt, which would certainly be the lowest risk approach, but our fairly careful examination of the alternatives doesn't incline us in that direction. Rent on the properties securing that debt more than covers the cost of the debt, and the properties are in markets we consider much more likely to appreciate than not, particularly over the medium to longer term). There is some chance we will do worse with this approach than we might otherwise, as there is risk with any investment strategy.
There are good reasons to avoid debt, but not all debt is bad or dangerous, and avoidance of debt risk may be prudent for most in many circumstances, but ruling it out as a legitimate option in some circumstances is, I think, short-sighted and perhaps ignorant.
Your attitude is all wrong. That doesn't mean you can't operate the way you are, but it carries with it extra risk.
THE BEST plan is to invest while at the same time getting rid of debt. You do not put off investing. The only time you need to have ZERO debt including a paid for house is if you buy individual stocks. Why pay ANY money on interest to anyone? Yes it's low right now, but so what? If you pay it off, you are guaranteed not to owe that interest and guaranteed not to have to make that payment on the principle.
The borrower is slave to the lender. Why be a slave to anyone? Invest 15% or more AND get rid of debt. THAT is the best plan.
Is this a troll post?
Dr. Racket wrote:Is this a troll post?
I was wondering the same thing myself. Maybe FP / SP has never owned investment properties or had adequate income or cash on hand to carry mortgage costs comfortably, who knows. Same for the Oh Snap, dude.
Of course one should avoid overextending themselves with high debt service ratios that make them cash poor. But failing that, every dollar paid against the principle reduces interest and also adds to the equity that has potential to appreciate. In other words, payments against the principle are effectively the same as investing regularly. To Igy’s hint about another housing bubble, we don’t own RE in the US. There is still risk, or course, as with any asset class. But low risk also limits the upside potential. Better a risk you understand, I think.
agip wrote:
I'm officially getting spooked...a dozen clients or so have been throwing money at their accounts.
Some of that is new year resolution stuff, but most of it is people seeing their huge 2020 gains and getting greedy.
This is bearish.
I am half-expecting a correction or at least a 5% pullback, but also would not be surprised if we don't see it too. Everybody just got $600, unemployed people are getting an extra $300 for 11(?) weeks, and we have a vaccine...
That being said, mania is definitely going on with Bitcoin and Tesla, and it is my opinion that the market as a whole is overvalued right now. I am hoping for a drop because I have done well at coming up with money and buying the dip in the past, but we may just see stagnation too. Median end of year target for the S and P 500 is something like 4030, which would be 8.9% up from today. Not a bad annual return if anyone has some cash they're wondering if they should put in atm.
doc idiot wrote:
Dr. Racket wrote:Is this a troll post?
I was wondering the same thing myself. Maybe FP / SP has never owned investment properties or had adequate income or cash on hand to carry mortgage costs comfortably, who knows. Same for the Oh Snap, dude.
Of course one should avoid overextending themselves with high debt service ratios that make them cash poor. But failing that, every dollar paid against the principle reduces interest and also adds to the equity that has potential to appreciate. In other words, payments against the principle are effectively the same as investing regularly. To Igy’s hint about another housing bubble, we don’t own RE in the US. There is still risk, or course, as with any asset class. But low risk also limits the upside potential. Better a risk you understand, I think.
Basic principles of leverage are Finance 101 which is why I'm pretty sure it had to be a troll post.
Anyways, housing market in the US is strange right now but there's essentially no supply and enormous demand. Now, speaking of leverage, prices could come down and the bubble could deflate if a whole bunch of overextended flippers and landlords get forced into foreclosure. That could be a possibility since a lot of rent and eviction moratoriums are in place, but I'm skeptical of the actual magnitude.
PRD wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm officially getting spooked...a dozen clients or so have been throwing money at their accounts.
Some of that is new year resolution stuff, but most of it is people seeing their huge 2020 gains and getting greedy.
This is bearish.
I am half-expecting a correction or at least a 5% pullback, but also would not be surprised if we don't see it too. Everybody just got $600, unemployed people are getting an extra $300 for 11(?) weeks, and we have a vaccine...
That being said, mania is definitely going on with Bitcoin and Tesla, and it is my opinion that the market as a whole is overvalued right now. I am hoping for a drop because I have done well at coming up with money and buying the dip in the past, but we may just see stagnation too. Median end of year target for the S and P 500 is something like 4030, which would be 8.9% up from today. Not a bad annual return if anyone has some cash they're wondering if they should put in atm.
TSLA has been overvalued for 6 years. They defied all logic with sheer retard strength and now they're in the SP500. They won - the battle is over. Nothing makes sense anymore
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
https://imgflip.com/i/4skqux
?
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh Snap, Hussman takes the lead on the first day of trading up +1.30%!
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quoteNow, if you had actually bought that 318 12/17 QQQ Put on 12/30/2020, you would be up over 7.7% ! ( 33.69 - 36.29 at midpoint ).
https://imgflip.com/i/4skqux
Funny muy loca. One of my former managers lost his managers seat, but kept his job, without any clients. All he did was trade options. He was good at it, made a living.
Dr. Racket wrote:
doc idiot wrote:
I was wondering the same thing myself. Maybe FP / SP has never owned investment properties or had adequate income or cash on hand to carry mortgage costs comfortably, who knows. Same for the Oh Snap, dude.
Of course one should avoid overextending themselves with high debt service ratios that make them cash poor. But failing that, every dollar paid against the principle reduces interest and also adds to the equity that has potential to appreciate. In other words, payments against the principle are effectively the same as investing regularly. To Igy’s hint about another housing bubble, we don’t own RE in the US. There is still risk, or course, as with any asset class. But low risk also limits the upside potential. Better a risk you understand, I think.
Basic principles of leverage are Finance 101 which is why I'm pretty sure it had to be a troll post.
Anyways, housing market in the US is strange right now but there's essentially no supply and enormous demand. Now, speaking of leverage, prices could come down and the bubble could deflate if a whole bunch of overextended flippers and landlords get forced into foreclosure. That could be a possibility since a lot of rent and eviction moratoriums are in place, but I'm skeptical of the actual magnitude.
I get the supply, demand, and mortgage finance dynamics of the current U.S. housing market. Still the fact remains there is very little that supports sustainability of price appreciation. In our market prices are easily 30% above the Housing Bubble peak, and more than double the trough. Flipping or buying for five years of appreciation seems like a reach at current prices. Looking at Zillow lately is much like following the market, that is, daily appreciation.
El Racketo:
My thesis keeps escaping close scrapes
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/nyse-says-it-will-no-longer-delist-three-chinese-telecom-giants.html
agip wrote:
El Racketo:
My thesis keeps escaping close scrapes
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/nyse-says-it-will-no-longer-delist-three-chinese-telecom-giants.html
Not surprising I guess, but disappointing to say the least. Everyone wants to take a stand against China but they're all afraid of losing a buck or two. Classic boomers