Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
What does every firm on Wall Street do this time every year? And perhaps you too. Mark up the index 8-10% by applying a multiple to EPS. So what, just the other side of the argument.
Igy
sure, that's what they do I know.
the irony is that the stock market is rarely up 8-12%, even though that's the average and what they predict each year. It usually swings much higher or lower than that.
No one can predict the stock market year after year. Some get lucky.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If the Fed and Congress didn’t pump $Trillions into the economy we would have bottomed below 1500. Which may have been a better outcome to what is coming.
yeah well the point is that after 2009 we should have all seen the fiscal and monetary fire hoses aimed at the stock exchange and not been so scared.
Namely, agip should have remembered that and not dumped all his corporate bonds.
But good to see that many people made that mistake.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
what's he saying now?
he's a trader, so hard to say. Mostly he's bearish these days, but more on stocks he picks than the market as a whole. But from the march-october rally he was calling the ups and the downs correctly. He must have made a fortune.
market did a couple of head fakes in that time which would be really hard to call, like i the ones in Sept. and October.
Most analysts i hear are guardedly optomistic for next year.
agip wrote:
going through my saved links.
here's Hussman from five years ago. Saying exactly the same thing he's saying now. Exactly. ...
And we wonder why Igy sounds like a broken record.
Gruntz wrote:
agip wrote:
going through my saved links.
here's Hussman from five years ago. Saying exactly the same thing he's saying now. Exactly. ...
And we wonder why Igy sounds like a broken record.
Speaking of a broken record. You are one crazy internet psycho.
Go talk to Max.
?
We've discussed bitcoin and it's energy demands in the mining of new coins before and i thought this might be of interest. From the linked article: "At 92.8 terawatt hours annualized, bitcoin’s power consumption is slightly ahead of Pakistan’s consumption in 2016, and not wildly away from the Netherlands’ consumption that year. "
And particularly noteworthy is that the vast majority of that is produced in China where over half their energy production is from coal.
Definitely giving me some mixed feelings about my admittedly miniscule bitcoin position.
Link:
Ridiculous insane feature of this bubble.
What bubble?
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
No, if you want my advice. I wouldn't be comfortable with more like a move of the decimal point one place to the left, and that would be even a stretch at that level.
Why? I know it's more "risk on" than other things... but it's definitely a pyramid scheme that is going up up up for months or years to come.
A trusted source called it "digital collateral", and thinks it will go to at least $50k.
Is your trusted source invested in bitcoin? If so, then there is no way he/she doesn't have some sort of bias.
"It's been going up a lot lately" isn't a very strong bull thesis unless you wanna day trade.
Rack-Ette wrote:
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Why? I know it's more "risk on" than other things... but it's definitely a pyramid scheme that is going up up up for months or years to come.
A trusted source called it "digital collateral", and thinks it will go to at least $50k.
Is your trusted source invested in bitcoin? If so, then there is no way he/she doesn't have some sort of bias.
"It's been going up a lot lately" isn't a very strong bull thesis unless you wanna day trade.
I would describe myself as an experienced retail trader. And i have never seen anything like bitcoin and its price movements. Both on the buy side and the sell. That alone tells me to be cautious. And my suspicion is that more is going on with it than just retail investors wanting to get in on a new form of digital currency.
seattle prattle wrote:... i have never seen anything like bitcoin and its price movements.
Um, TSLA?
shine a light wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Such BS. I DON'T scrimp and save, and I don't suggest you do either. Putting away 15% of your income is not "scrimping". Now, I put away more than that, but that's because we make very good money and I can.
Also, I have been investing now for just 31 years, not 40 or 50. I've been to the point that we could have retired for a few years now. So, NO, my strategy does NOT mean you have to save and invest for 50 years. Regarding wise decisions with education, My wife is a college professor with graduate degrees from The University of Michigan and Stanford. I have a Masters Degree and own my own company.
What YOU want is to try to make a big score on individual stocks. Being driven by greed and unearned success is the downfall of people in their lives and in investing. That is inherently risky and should be done ONLY after you have solidified other areas of your financial life...no debt, paid for house, million dollars in investments minimum, and still contributing to stock mutual funds if you are still working. I was at that point at age 50 (owning the house outright being the last piece). IF I scrimped and saved as you suggested, I could have done it earlier.
For people who have a large salary right out of college, it makes even MORE sense for them to just religiously put money away for retirement and get out of debt as soon as possible.
I think what the OP is saying is that you may have been good at saving money over the years, but bad at earning an income.
Nope. That's not what he was saying. If for some weird reason he was, if you are making less than a million dollars a year, you need to be regularly investing in the market within mutual funds. Over a million, you STILL need to invest, and you can still choose mutual funds, but there are other things you might want to delve into as well.
the media is corrupt wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Dave Ramsey gives solid, not perfect advice. His stance on owning credit cards is weird and wrong for people who don't have issues with debt. His idea that you shouldn't take any loans for college is bad. Most of the rest of it is good stuff though. His vocal Christianity on his show is silly, but whatever.
He says put 15% or more into retirement accounts. That is good advice.
He says get out of debt as soon as you can and plan to own your home outright before you retire. That is good advice.
Those two things are the backbone of his ideas that he has built an empire on. Hard to argue with that.
Several reputable studies confirm that people spend more (18% or more) when using a credit card versus cash.
I agree with that. That's why I said, "His stance on owning credit cards is weird and wrong for people who don't have issues with debt." Credit cards are more convenient (more widely accepted) and safer than debit cards. If you are one who is on top of your finances (like me) and pay it off every month without fail, credit cards are just fine...and actually better than debit cards.
doc idiot wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:... i have never seen anything like bitcoin and its price movements.
Um, TSLA?
Not really.
The difference as far as i see it is that Tesla can be understood due to shorting the stock. So i see two forces at play that help explain big drops as the shorts pile on, and also gradual grinding up when they are forced out of their positions, in addition to the obvious traders building their position in a company they see with good long term prospects.
But bitcoin can't be shorted as far as i know in any convenient way.
And i understand that there are a few very large "whales" who control a large percentage of the shares. ANd it has massive downturns that happen very fast. And it is unregulated. With no asset backing up its value, like say a car company that actually makes things and has earnings.
Rack-Ette wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Meh. Not being in debt is not a great way to stay poor. His approach has you invest AND get out of debt.
Having no debt allows you to keep more of your income.
Having no debt is a safety net in case your income stream is broken.
A good financial plan includes investing and the elimination of debt.
One thing Ramsey says that I agree with is, if someone (or you) paid off your house, would you take a loan against it to invest in the market? The answer to that is no and should be no.
His advice is completely monolithic which is great only of you're an edge case. For everyone else, there's nuance and there's no such thing as a single "good financial plan."
Strictly avoiding debt will keep you behind. Why would I pay all cash or put a huge down payment on anything right now, especially a depreciating asset like a car? If my income stream is interrupted then I'm way better off having a ton of cash on hand than I am with a slightly lower monthly payment. "Well I have 0 dollars in the bank but thank God my monthly car payment is only $150 a month instead of $230!"
His only good advice is the debt snowball which is for people in over their heads
1) Well, I said his advice was solid yet imperfect which is why I don't support all of his ideas.
2) Disagree about avoiding debt. Avoiding debt is avoiding risk. You are rationalizing buying things when you don't have the funds to do so. Also, in almost all cases, when you buy a car for ZERO percent interest, you either get that deal OR you get to take an additional $2,000 or whatever off. It is rarely if ever the same price. A good negotiator (or really someone who just TELLS the dealer what price they will pay) MIGHT be able to walk out with a decent final price on the car with zero percent interest, but you have to know about holdback, end of month and end of year stuff, and MOST car buyers don't.
3) The way you protect against income stream interruption is to have an emergency fund of up to 6 months of expenses. You don't do this by holding back money you should have paid for a car.
4) The debt snowball IS a good idea for people in debt, I agree, BUT his other advice on what you do after you are out of debt is solid also...don't pay more than 25% of your income for a mortgage (again, solid advice...I don't think people need to do that, especially depending on where they live and what they want to do with their lives, but it is SOLID advice), 15% or more into diversified stock mutual funds (yep...more than 15% if and when possible). Pay off mortgage as soon as you can while still contributing 15% or more to retirement (SOLID advice).
agip wrote:
geez.
I'm in my mid 50s. I grew up upper middle class. The number of my childhood friends who have saved and invested as they should...is minimal.
If they had followed Ramsey from when they started working at 22 or 24 they'd all be very rich.
Simple wins when you are talking financial advice for the masses. It's hard enough to follow Ramsey...much harder to do all the fancy tricks you think they should study up and learn.
CORRECT! There is also a much greater likelihood that they will do better if they just invest in diversified mutual funds and leave it all alone.
seattle prattle wrote:
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Why? I know it's more "risk on" than other things... but it's definitely a pyramid scheme that is going up up up for months or years to come.
A trusted source called it "digital collateral", and thinks it will go to at least $50k.
Where's Falgpole when you can actually use him?
We had a lot of discussion about this already with Maserati.
Most everything that could be wrong with it is wrong with it including widespread theft, a minefield of govt. scrutiny and legislation and reporting that could be heaped on it with the click of a mouse, whales that control big portions of the market, lack of scrutiny and regulation, and the fact that unlike stocks, you don't actually own anything other than a token with a mutually agreed upon value that chnages in the milliseconds.
Whatever floats your boat, but i find it prudent not to put as risk less than maybe one percent of one's portfolio.
I do not invest in individual stocks, and I don't speculate, so I am of no help here. I wouldn't give advice on something I'm not doing.
Flagpole wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Where's Falgpole when you can actually use him?
We had a lot of discussion about this already with Maserati.
Most everything that could be wrong with it is wrong with it including widespread theft, a minefield of govt. scrutiny and legislation and reporting that could be heaped on it with the click of a mouse, whales that control big portions of the market, lack of scrutiny and regulation, and the fact that unlike stocks, you don't actually own anything other than a token with a mutually agreed upon value that chnages in the milliseconds.
Whatever floats your boat, but i find it prudent not to put as risk less than maybe one percent of one's portfolio.
I do not invest in individual stocks, and I don't speculate, so I am of no help here. I wouldn't give advice on something I'm not doing.
I was more referring to your recommendations on getting into speculative stuff like that, in general, in any significant way when one has say less than one million dollars with which to invest/speculate. Don't feel a need to respond, you already said it before....
Calling Igy...
Under 15 minutes of trading left in 2020, with SP500 nowhere close to 1500. I’ll take that dignity with a side of fries please. ?
Thanks for being a decent sport about this.
SP,
I’m not convinced like you that there’s such a fundamental difference. I think both BTC and TSLA fluctuate according to simple supply and demand, with demand - the more important variable I think - being very fickle, to the point of being chaotic and unpredictable, for a host of reasons mainly psychological. The underlying presence of something with fundamental value is, I think, mostly beside the point.
But out of respect for my elders (you wrote elsewhere that you are 63; which puts you in the second tier behind Igy and la gente, both in their 70s, ahead of the next group in their mid50s of me, mas, agip and FP), and out of good wishes for the coming New Year, I defer to your greater accumulated experience and wisdom. :-)