Johannes wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Like Pavlov’s dog, the Fed has conditioned investors to “buy on the dip” regardless of price. Yet every share of stock has to be held by someone at every point in time. Therefore investors as a class cannot avoid a 60-70% market loss. The Pavlov response will be regurgitated by bloated investors that gorged themselves on overvalued equities. The market will be down long and severe, with valuations approaching 2010 levels, or lower. Wiping out a decade of moving money from one basket to another. All that effort and gloating, wasted and for nothing. That is the future.
Now it is possible that an individual investor can avoid that very unhappy ending, but not investors as a class. The likely scenario is we have spring 2020 action, Fed acts, buyers come in, markets take another leg down, as finally markets react in a mirror image to current distortions. At that point I will troll the Troll.
Not surprisingly, you avoided the question. Can we just agree that you pulled your previous reply out of your butt?
The essential passage in Graham’s The Intelligent Investor:
“The distinction between investment and speculation in common stocks has always been a useful one and its disappearance is a cause for concern. We have often said that Wall Street as an institution would be well advised to reinstate this distinction and to emphasize it in all its dealings with the public. Otherwise the stock exchanges may some day be blamed for heavy speculative losses, which those who suffered them had not been properly warned against.”
So in Benjamin Graham’s view you would not be an intelligent investor. On that point Troll, I agree with Graham, who by the way was one of Warren Buffett’s mentors.