Down goes the Dow

another all time high for the SP500 today

agip wrote:

Dr. Racket wrote:

In the Fall of 2018 the Fed tried to raise the rate by .00001% and the NASDAQ straight up went into a mini bear market. With the amount of corporate debt floating around out there, I don't see how anyone can deny the influence of the Fed. Companies like Tesla have survived literally only because they could continue to service there debt basically for free. Pretty soon we're gonna start seeing the zombie companies just lingering around at this pace.

Well that's an N=1 data series you are offering, while the piece I cited has multiple examples.

And anyway, are real, after inflation, interest rates companies are paying much different than ever? If Tesla now pays 4% with 1% inflation, that's the same as a company in the 80s paying 8% with 5% inflation. But the 8% sounds much more sane for some reason.

Lack of inflation is part of the problem. Despite beyond record unemployment, inflation barely budged. As for the N=1, it's a different economy everyday and past results don't guarantee future performance.

Dr. Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

Well that's an N=1 data series you are offering, while the piece I cited has multiple examples.

And anyway, are real, after inflation, interest rates companies are paying much different than ever? If Tesla now pays 4% with 1% inflation, that's the same as a company in the 80s paying 8% with 5% inflation. But the 8% sounds much more sane for some reason.

Lack of inflation is part of the problem. Despite beyond record unemployment, inflation barely budged. .

seems to me that the world is telling us that at the present time, with tech ripping and roaring and improving everything...inflation is just not a thing. No one can accurately claim to understand it completely, but in these days of incredible efficiency and lack of inventory flubs and a global labor marketplace holding wages down...low interest rates and low inflation seem fixed.

But sure that can change as human error messes up. By borrowing too much in the belief inflation will never happen again, for example.

well *&^))

BTC is a double since 11/1/2020.

$27,200

What a time to be alive.

I'm up around 45%.

To $58!

1 month returns, ranked

Tech +7%

Small Caps +7%

Gold +4%

Non-US Dvlpd +3%

USA +3%

Hussman +3%

Emerging: +2%

China +1%

Value +1%

Bonds: 0%

Energy -3%

Tech resumes leadership, while temp leaders value and energy sink back a bit.

The Chinese gummint is furiously trying to hammer down its internet sector...not helping.

Good time to be long though. Everything up.

agip wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

Flagpole is outright lying that his mid-caps did over 60% this year. Just an outright lie. I already showed how Vanguard (his fave) mid-caps came no where close to 60%. Like WAY lower that that. The onus is on him to show which of his mid-caps performed at about 100% Y-T-D to offset his on average 20% relatively lackluster Vanguard funds. Put up or shut up, Flagpole. Show us your mid-caps that returned about 100% this year.

I remember Flagpole showing some confusion and misunderstanding about how dividends work with mutual funds. I'm guessing that the 60% claim might be another expression of that kind of confusion. Just a guess though.

FP, check morningstar to see what the return is on specific funds. THey won't be +60% unless they are some kind of hyper-tech or bitcoiny job.

My mid-cap funds are ALL in my Fidelity account. I use both Vanguard and Fidelity for my retirement accounts, and they have different types of investments in each.

Artisan Mid Cap Fund - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

You people never learn. I do not LIE, ever. I have 100% integrity 100% of the time.

So, if you think you've caught me in a lie, trust me that you are mistaken. BUT, if you think you have, you'd better have the goods to back that up.

So, in this case? Nope!

Artisan Mid Cap Fund, which is where my mid-cap funds are - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

Flagpole wrote:

You people never learn. I do not LIE, ever. I have 100% integrity 100% of the time.

So, if you think you've caught me in a lie, trust me that you are mistaken. BUT, if you think you have, you'd better have the goods to back that up.

So, in this case? Nope!

Artisan Mid Cap Fund, which is where my mid-cap funds are - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

this checks out.

that fund had an amazing year - many positions with 100, 200, 300% gains. Even a 5 bagger (moderna)

it's around 1/3 tech, far more than the index.

good job, FP

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

You people never learn. I do not LIE, ever. I have 100% integrity 100% of the time.

So, if you think you've caught me in a lie, trust me that you are mistaken. BUT, if you think you have, you'd better have the goods to back that up.

So, in this case? Nope!

Artisan Mid Cap Fund, which is where my mid-cap funds are - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

this checks out.

that fund had an amazing year - many positions with 100, 200, 300% gains. Even a 5 bagger (moderna)

it's around 1/3 tech, far more than the index.

good job, FP

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vo/portfolio

Yes it checks out...because I do not lie, EVER.

BUT, the ONLY reason for me to accept the "good job" is because of the regular, unbroken investing that I do. I do NOT change things around. I ONLY contribute to the funds I have OR buy new funds. I had NO IDEA that these mid-cap funds would do so well this year. The LIFE of that fund is 15%, so pretty damn good, but there have been negative years for that fund when I've owned it. This is why you diversify. I just happened to be LUCKY that I hit a home run with this fund this year.

THAT is how you invest. My next best fund of the year was also in my Fidelity group of funds:

Fidelity Confrafund large cap - 31.26% YTD

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

You people never learn. I do not LIE, ever. I have 100% integrity 100% of the time.

So, if you think you've caught me in a lie, trust me that you are mistaken. BUT, if you think you have, you'd better have the goods to back that up.

So, in this case? Nope!

Artisan Mid Cap Fund, which is where my mid-cap funds are - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

this checks out.

that fund had an amazing year - many positions with 100, 200, 300% gains. Even a 5 bagger (moderna)

it's around 1/3 tech, far more than the index.

good job, FP

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vo/portfolio

Big deal. I had a 16 bagger on Facebook calls I picked up right before Q1 earnings last year. And I had a 20 bagger on an NQ futures short position 2 years ago when the market was cratering but I didn't sell while I was ahead and lost pretty much all my gains.

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

You people never learn. I do not LIE, ever. I have 100% integrity 100% of the time.

So, if you think you've caught me in a lie, trust me that you are mistaken. BUT, if you think you have, you'd better have the goods to back that up.

So, in this case? Nope!

Artisan Mid Cap Fund, which is where my mid-cap funds are - up 60.27% YTD as of today.

this checks out.

that fund had an amazing year - many positions with 100, 200, 300% gains. Even a 5 bagger (moderna)

it's around 1/3 tech, far more than the index.

good job, FP

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vo/portfolio

No it doesn't, Agip. VO is a Vanguard fund and is only up 18% for the year. I thought Flagpole had considerable investments but he doesn't even use the right terminology. His mid-cap funds are in the Artisan Mid Cap fund? That is a single fund. It is not a Fidelity fund. And it is not up over 60% for the year. And that is for the investor class.

You don't even know how to spell Contrafund and it is only up 18.5% YTD. Flagpole - do you have ANY investments? You say your mid-caps are kept in the Artisan fund. I am not even sure what you mean by that. The Artisan fund is a single mutual fund. Is that the only mid-cap fund you have? You really are talking like an investment newbie here.

“I think Dr. Racket hit it when he said that stocks will rise until the interest rate rises.”

Well the 10 Year Treasury has gone from 0.318% March 9, 2020 to 0.950% today. So we went from the lows in market and lows in yield at the same time, which is what one would expect as money flows out of stocks and into bonds. I find nothing to support this supposition other than markets cannot handle a normal interest rate environment. More likely the market dumps on valuation extension, and the 10 Year Treasury hits a new 234 year low.

So, will Sally be man enough to admit I was not lying?

We shall see.

Sally, you are a liar and have been proven so on the Trump thread. Just because you lie doesn't mean others do.

For future reference, I do not lie about ANYTHING, ever. You should change your ways.

No one cares

Flagpole, let's nail this down so there is no confusion. Which mid-cap funds specifically do you own? Do you only own one? In my Fidelity account I only have Fidelity funds. In my Vanguard funds I only have Vanguard funds. Do you have ANY investments?

Flagpole wrote:

So, will Sally be man enough to admit I was not lying?

We shall see.

Sally, you are a liar and have been proven so on the Trump thread. Just because you lie doesn't mean others do.

For future reference, I do not lie about ANYTHING, ever. You should change your ways.

First, get the terminology correct. NEXT, list out your specific funds. You said your "mid-caps" did over 60% YTD then you listed only one mid-cap and said it was in your Fidelity account when it wasn't even a Fidelity mutual fund or ETF. You have a lot of clarifying to do, son.

Flagpole implied that he had more than one fund, and such things will get picked up by the many more experienced and knowledgeable investors on here. His exact statement: "This year's big winner for me were my mid-cap funds...they went up over 60%! " Note the plural.

But more importantly to me is that he and BummStead first claim that Flapgpole made the most in percentage terms of any investor on the site, then they explain their tepid investing style in which to do it, and then they insult everyone who operates otherwise as idiots.

And I am not about to get in a pissing contest with you, FP, but your claims are patently false.

Bad form, fellas.

1) Dude, a typo obviously.

2) Yes, that Artisan fund is the only mid-cap fund I have. I have a truck load of money in it.

3) The Fidelity Contrafund Class K (FCNKX) fund that I have is up 31.26% on the year. That one is NOT the only large cap fund I have...it's just the Large Cap one this year that did the best for me.

Just stop. You will never catch me in a lie because I do not lie. You are a dumb@ss.