Down goes the Dow

2016 Black Porsche Cayman Base wrote:

Five of nine indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 14, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund...

That’s not an index. You seem as dumb as GOI.

?

I have beaten “Flagpole” every year that we have both been investing, because I have beaten the markets every year—until this year, depending on how you measure. Heck even this year I have had only PYPL, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, and only now a bit of AAL, in addition to a broad spectrum of megacaps, no financials. I did sell some miners at a loss, but made money on others. I haven’t yet figured things out for the year, but I might be ahead of some US markets. With my int’l currency exposure I am way ahead, but I don’t count that.

“Flagpole” isn‘t all that. He’s a self-important dullard, like a decaying floating body, bloated with hubris. He’s one of those guys who seems to be succeeding, despite his best efforts. Typical hack, chances are he also is public sector, or somehow nurses at the public teat. Zero respect, because even to the extent that he has ever been “right”, it has been for no really valid reasons. And as someone upthread pointed out, he can’t even maximize returns on whatever sheep thesis he appears to have.

To everyone else, happy holidays! May we all progress prosperously through the coming times, and may our workouts be GREAT!?

Try to keep up wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Why?

Because the market is unpredictable.

More specifically, because stock market action is generally assumed to be stochastic (i.e. random). You cannot predict random movement

The largest movements have been anything but random. That is a cop-out for those whose thesis applies to only a narrow range of circumstances or time.

The rise of “scientific “ investing has exacerbated this. It is a very human activity, having more to do with sociology and individual psychology than anything else. Technicals are fun to play with, as “measuring” only results. The best market results are gained by understanding people and politics.

Happy holidays, all!

From this six-legged fire breathing Italian dragon to all of you and all of yours.

seattle prattle wrote:

Try to keep up wrote:

Because it is impossible to time the market.

I don't know if it is impossible to time the market, but it is a real challenge to do it better than all the other guys trying to do the same thing. I'll grant you that much for sure.

Really?

When the market began tanking in late Feb you did not know it was a good time to go the sidelines for a while?

[quote]Maserati wrote:

The largest movements have been anything but random. That is a cop-out for those whose thesis applies to only a narrow range of circumstances or time.

The rise of “scientific “ investing has exacerbated this. It is a very human activity, having more to do with sociology and individual psychology than anything else.

And insiders and big players manipulating the market

Yes, Happy Holidays, everyone. That shortened trading day caught me by surprise.

seattle prattle wrote:

Yes, Happy Holidays, everyone. That shortened trading day caught me by surprise.

Season's Greetings y'all from South Padre Island. Wtf, 86 degrees yesterday, barely 60 today, the wind is howling and the surf is insane.

The Unkle wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I don't know if it is impossible to time the market, but it is a real challenge to do it better than all the other guys trying to do the same thing. I'll grant you that much for sure.

Really?

When the market began tanking in late Feb you did not know it was a good time to go the sidelines for a while?

Selling low is a classic investing faux pas.

Stew wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Really?

When the market began tanking in late Feb you did not know it was a good time to go the sidelines for a while?

Selling low is a classic investing faux pas.

selling into the downturn wasn't that much of tough call. But even if one had that presence of mind to do it, getting back in was a very tough call.

There's two sides of a trade. For someone who sold in late February, it would have made a dumb decision in retrospect, at least at current levels, in that the indices are up since then. But having watched many among us who did make the decision to sell, the real challenge was knowing when to get back in and some waited too long and regret it.

Heck, some think it is still too early to get back in.

For my strategy, I sell if things start going bad, and i don't mind leaving a little bit on the table, but rather i do so with the expectation that i am doing so in return for some insurance against further downside.

On the way back home I would recommend a stop here. A short drive off the highway, but well worth it.

https://www.kingsinnriviera.com/

That seemed excessively harsh ... especially on Christmas Eve. Flagpole’s method is the best choice for those of us who know that we don’t know anything.

Dr. Racket wrote:

More specifically, because stock market action is generally assumed to be stochastic (i.e. random). You cannot predict random movement

Cards coming out of a deck are random.

And, if replaced each time, cannot be predicted.

The market is many things, random it ain't

seattle prattle wrote:

Stew wrote:

Really?

When the market began tanking in late Feb you did not know it was a good time to go the sidelines for a while?

Selling low is a classic investing faux pas.

selling into the downturn wasn't that much of tough call. But even if one had that presence of mind to do it, getting back in was a very tough call.

There's two sides of a trade. For someone who sold in late February, it would have made a dumb decision in retrospect, at least at current levels, in that the indices are up since then. But having watched many among us who did make the decision to sell, the real challenge was knowing when to get back in and some waited too long and regret it.

Easy call. Looked pretty clear the drop was on for a while. Got the Hell out and watched from the sidelines to see when we can get back in.

the beauty of buy and hold is that anyone can do it, in theory. It takes no work, but a steady hand.

the bad part about market timing is that few can do it and it takes a lot of work.

But both can work.

I read a study somewhere...if actively managed mutual funds had fees as low as index funds, they would probably outpeform the indices. Which means the market can be beaten. But when you charge the fund the salaries of MBAs and trading fees and advertising...the active fees drop back behind the passive funds.

Which suggests an individual can beat the market since she isn't paying a bunch of MBAs and doesn't have to market the fund.

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

here's to the market timers, the dreamers as we live above Dow 30,000

old math professor wrote:

I took about 1 mill. out of the market a couple years ago. Now it is all profit as the market drops below where it was when I jumped ship. I will start jumping back in at Dow=14,000, all in at Dow=12,000, unless it is still falling precipitously. I can't see a significant upside anytime soon. There will be a lot of bad news coming down the pike for a good long time. A month or two more of this chaos will shock the average investor. I know their psychology. Many will swear off the market, sell low, and they won't be back.

I'm just poking around the posts from the 2020 bottom...some classics like this one.

3/16/2020

it's page 1957 if you want to do some poking around yourselves.