The Unkle wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
[quote]Bummbull wrote:
It’s sad that no ones beating Flagpole and he just buys and holds.
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
Why not?
Because it is impossible to time the market.
Flagpole wrote:
Bummbull wrote:
It’s sad that no ones beating Flagpole and he just buys and holds.
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
2) I don't consider what I do as buy and hold. Technically it is that as I have NEVER sold a stock I've bought since 1989, but what I do is really buy, buy, buy, buy, buy and hold. It's like this -- For the first 7 years of my marriage, my wife and I invest half of our income. As we then had children and made more money, we invested a smaller portion of our income. For a very short time we were down to 5%, but we have averaged a little more than 25% of our income now since those first 7 years when we were at 50%. We invest a set amount each month, and we have money that is "staged". This is money that is above and beyond our emergency fund, and we currently have zero debt including a paid for house, so this is really just extra money. IF the market has a big drop (and that happens maybe every year and a half or so), we put in EXTRA money. It's money we don't need and money we don't want to spend on anything else right now, so that's were it goes. We will not take from our retirement or non-retirement accounts until we retire.
It's hands off, play the percentages of 73% of years being up years, and just invest, invest, invest. It's not rocket science. It's just self control and patience.
So you haven't locked in any gains you've made in the past 40 years and you only buy stock?
That's neither typical nor is it very intelligent lol. If that's actually your strategy then you just buy leap call warrants dated out like 10 years
“My sense is that passive investors will end up holding the bag here. Every security that is issued has to be held by someone, at every moment in time, until that security is retired. Every dollar that comes “into” the market in the hands of a buyer gets taken out an instant later in the hands of a seller. It’s impossible, in aggregate, for investors to “get out” of the market. There’s no point in advocating it, except for those whose risk-tolerance and investment horizon could not tolerate 10-12 years of negative average total returns with an intervening market loss on the order of 60-70%. The inescapable fact is that every dollar of paper “wealth” that someone takes out of stocks here is just a transfer of wealth from some investor who gets in at these valuations.
I realize that the projection of a 60-70% market loss seems just as preposterous as my 2000 projection of an 83% loss in technology stocks. The problem is that investors don’t seem to understand what they have done by responding to zero interest rates as if there is no alternative but to embrace market risk, regardless of the price. This will likely end badly. We don’t require it to end badly, but I do believe it will.”
—John Hussman, “A Good Response to a Bad Situation”
Flagpole wrote:
Bummbull wrote:
It’s sad that no ones beating Flagpole and he just buys and holds.
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
2) I don't consider what I do as buy and hold. Technically it is that as I have NEVER sold a stock I've bought since 1989, but what I do is really buy, buy, buy, buy, buy and hold. It's like this -- For the first 7 years of my marriage, my wife and I invest half of our income. As we then had children and made more money, we invested a smaller portion of our income. For a very short time we were down to 5%, but we have averaged a little more than 25% of our income now since those first 7 years when we were at 50%. We invest a set amount each month, and we have money that is "staged". This is money that is above and beyond our emergency fund, and we currently have zero debt including a paid for house, so this is really just extra money. IF the market has a big drop (and that happens maybe every year and a half or so), we put in EXTRA money. It's money we don't need and money we don't want to spend on anything else right now, so that's were it goes. We will not take from our retirement or non-retirement accounts until we retire.
It's hands off, play the percentages of 73% of years being up years, and just invest, invest, invest. It's not rocket science. It's just self control and patience.
Hmmm, not sure why you didn’t copy over the entirety of what I wrote as I was complimenting you. I was complimenting you that your tried and true investing is beating out all of these people who comment on this thread as they constantly buy and sell or too many permabears always saying that stocks are overweight and waiting for stocks to fall.
It’s like the saying that people lose more money preparing for the correction than the actual correction.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“My sense is that passive investors will end up holding the bag here. Every security that is issued has to be held by someone, at every moment in time, until that security is retired. Every dollar that comes “into” the market in the hands of a buyer gets taken out an instant later in the hands of a seller. It’s impossible, in aggregate, for investors to “get out” of the market. There’s no point in advocating it, except for those whose risk-tolerance and investment horizon could not tolerate 10-12 years of negative average total returns with an intervening market loss on the order of 60-70%. The inescapable fact is that every dollar of paper “wealth” that someone takes out of stocks here is just a transfer of wealth from some investor who gets in at these valuations.
I realize that the projection of a 60-70% market loss seems just as preposterous as my 2000 projection of an 83% loss in technology stocks. The problem is that investors don’t seem to understand what they have done by responding to zero interest rates as if there is no alternative but to embrace market risk, regardless of the price. This will likely end badly. We don’t require it to end badly, but I do believe it will.”
—John Hussman, “A Good Response to a Bad Situation”
This guy doesn’t seem to understand the difference between investing and saving.
full disclosure - I previously sold my XLE position. Lost $88.
agip wrote:
full disclosure - I previously sold my XLE position. Lost $88.
Citadel says thank you.
Is XLE and energy a good contrarian bet?
Try to keep up wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
Why not?
Because it is impossible to time the market.
I don't know if it is impossible to time the market, but it is a real challenge to do it better than all the other guys trying to do the same thing. I'll grant you that much for sure.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
full disclosure - I previously sold my XLE position. Lost $88.
Citadel says thank you.
Doing what I can to spread holiday cheer all across Greenwich, CT
Dr. Racket wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
2) I don't consider what I do as buy and hold. Technically it is that as I have NEVER sold a stock I've bought since 1989, but what I do is really buy, buy, buy, buy, buy and hold. It's like this -- For the first 7 years of my marriage, my wife and I invest half of our income. As we then had children and made more money, we invested a smaller portion of our income. For a very short time we were down to 5%, but we have averaged a little more than 25% of our income now since those first 7 years when we were at 50%. We invest a set amount each month, and we have money that is "staged". This is money that is above and beyond our emergency fund, and we currently have zero debt including a paid for house, so this is really just extra money. IF the market has a big drop (and that happens maybe every year and a half or so), we put in EXTRA money. It's money we don't need and money we don't want to spend on anything else right now, so that's were it goes. We will not take from our retirement or non-retirement accounts until we retire.
It's hands off, play the percentages of 73% of years being up years, and just invest, invest, invest. It's not rocket science. It's just self control and patience.
So you haven't locked in any gains you've made in the past 40 years and you only buy stock?
That's neither typical nor is it very intelligent lol. If that's actually your strategy then you just buy leap call warrants dated out like 10 years
Correct and then incorrect.
1) Correct that I have only bought stock (and never sold) since I started buying in 1989 (that's only 31 years going on 32, not 40 too, by the way). I ONLY buy stocks within mutual funds. I am extremely well diversified. I do NOT buy individual stocks.
2) Incorrect that it isn't very intelligent to do. The main reason to buy stocks is to be properly prepared for retirement. What I do and what everyone SHOULD do is earmark 15% minimum of their income to retirement accounts. If you want beyond that, you can buy some non-retirement mutual funds. With the rest of your income, you live your life, but you also do what you can to get rid of debt, and you plan to own your home outright by the time you retire. That's where I am. I have been able to retire for good for a few years now, and I have whittled my work week down to just 30 hours a week and may decide to be completely done in as little as a year and a half from now while still in my mid 50s. My wife is a college professor who wants to work until she is 60 or maybe as long as 62. We have zero debt and own our home outright, and we could live on the investments we made right now easily if we wanted to, but we're not yet ready to stop working. It is at least a little bit entertaining for us. It's actually more fun working a job when you actually don't have to anymore.
Bummbull wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
2) I don't consider what I do as buy and hold. Technically it is that as I have NEVER sold a stock I've bought since 1989, but what I do is really buy, buy, buy, buy, buy and hold. It's like this -- For the first 7 years of my marriage, my wife and I invest half of our income. As we then had children and made more money, we invested a smaller portion of our income. For a very short time we were down to 5%, but we have averaged a little more than 25% of our income now since those first 7 years when we were at 50%. We invest a set amount each month, and we have money that is "staged". This is money that is above and beyond our emergency fund, and we currently have zero debt including a paid for house, so this is really just extra money. IF the market has a big drop (and that happens maybe every year and a half or so), we put in EXTRA money. It's money we don't need and money we don't want to spend on anything else right now, so that's were it goes. We will not take from our retirement or non-retirement accounts until we retire.
It's hands off, play the percentages of 73% of years being up years, and just invest, invest, invest. It's not rocket science. It's just self control and patience.
Hmmm, not sure why you didn’t copy over the entirety of what I wrote as I was complimenting you. I was complimenting you that your tried and true investing is beating out all of these people who comment on this thread as they constantly buy and sell or too many permabears always saying that stocks are overweight and waiting for stocks to fall.
It’s like the saying that people lose more money preparing for the correction than the actual correction.
I didn't miss the compliment, brother, and I didn't purposefully leave that out. I was just stating that it's not sad. It's just typical. It's sad that they are chasing rainbows perhaps. It's not sad that they aren't beating me. I do the thing that has the least amount of risk but yet still with great reward. Yes, there are people out there who make a big score that sets them up for life, but that is very rare. They have the same access to information that I do. They can make the same choices I make, but greed gets in the way. People dream of that big score. You have to leave ego and machoism out of investing. Slow and steady wins this race. Invest, invest, and invest some more all the while getting rid of your debt.
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 14, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 14.37%. is in second is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 12.93% and in third is China's Shanghai with a gain of 12.15%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 14.93%.
Try to keep up wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
1) That's not sad. That is typical. People who buy and sell and chase tops and bottoms are not likely to do well.
Why not?
Because it is impossible to time the market.
Why?
The Unkle wrote:
Try to keep up wrote:
Because it is impossible to time the market.
Why?
Because the market is unpredictable.
Flagpole wrote:
Dr. Racket wrote:
So you haven't locked in any gains you've made in the past 40 years and you only buy stock?
That's neither typical nor is it very intelligent lol. If that's actually your strategy then you just buy leap call warrants dated out like 10 years
Correct and then incorrect.
1) Correct that I have only bought stock (and never sold) since I started buying in 1989 (that's only 31 years going on 32, not 40 too, by the way). I ONLY buy stocks within mutual funds. I am extremely well diversified. I do NOT buy individual stocks.
2) Incorrect that it isn't very intelligent to do. The main reason to buy stocks is to be properly prepared for retirement. What I do and what everyone SHOULD do is earmark 15% minimum of their income to retirement accounts. If you want beyond that, you can buy some non-retirement mutual funds. With the rest of your income, you live your life, but you also do what you can to get rid of debt, and you plan to own your home outright by the time you retire. That's where I am. I have been able to retire for good for a few years now, and I have whittled my work week down to just 30 hours a week and may decide to be completely done in as little as a year and a half from now while still in my mid 50s. My wife is a college professor who wants to work until she is 60 or maybe as long as 62. We have zero debt and own our home outright, and we could live on the investments we made right now easily if we wanted to, but we're not yet ready to stop working. It is at least a little bit entertaining for us. It's actually more fun working a job when you actually don't have to anymore.
And while you're at it, how do you know that no one is beating Flagpole? What has been his overall return year to date or for the last two years?
Five of nine indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 14, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund up 17.32%, followed by our own S&P 500 almost 3% less with a gain of 14.37%. in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 12.93% and in fourth is China's Shanghai with a gain of 12.15%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 14.93%. Hussman continues to correctly read this market with far less risk.
2016 Black Porsche Cayman Base wrote:
Five of nine indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through December 14, 2020. The top performer is the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund up 17.32%, followed by our own S&P 500 almost 3% less with a gain of 14.37%. in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 12.93% and in fourth is China's Shanghai with a gain of 12.15%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 14.93%. Hussman continues to correctly read this market with far less risk.
Good one, Igy!
Merry Christmas or whatever is appropriate, Seattle!