On investing in China:
https://twitter.com/Wu_Tang_Finance/status/1338877917393264641
On investing in China:
https://twitter.com/Wu_Tang_Finance/status/1338877917393264641
agip wrote:
I saved this story from a couple years ago.
I think this massive bet worked, but holy mother of Pre the owner of this option contract must have been sweating pure adrenaline in March 2020.
As I understand it, if the SPX had hit 2,014, the trader would have lost more than $500 million.
It hit 2,192
"The trader sold 19,000 put options on the S&P 500 Index .SPX obligating him or her to buy the market benchmark at 2,100 on Dec. 18, 2020, data from New York-based options analytics firm Trade alert showed.
As long as the index doesn’t drop more than 22 percent from its current level of 2,582 by that date, the bet will earn the trader roughly $175 million in premiums."
While Monday’s sale was nowhere near as large as Buffett’s, the trader could still lose more than half a billion dollars if stocks turn sour over the next couple of years.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-options-idUSKCN1P82I8
Has to be a hedge. I can't imagine anyone would seriously put up that much money against that much exposure in one direction.
And it's really even worse than it sounds because if the trader got to a point where he had to buy back the contracts then, like in March, it would mean IV would be through the fvcking rough and premium on contracts would be stupid high
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On investing in China:
https://twitter.com/Wu_Tang_Finance/status/1338877917393264641
Well Igy for once we agree.
Except don't overstate risks of global health and blatant human rights abusive against America's love of really cheap sh!t
Ranked by 1 month returns
Energy
1m +19
3m +26
12m -26
Small Caps
1m +10
3m +24
12m +20
tech
1m +6
3m +12
12m +46
Non-US developed
1m +6
3m +12
12m +10
USA
1m +5
3m +12
12m +21
EM
1m +5
3m +12
12m +16
Value
1m +4
3m +11
12m +3
China
1m -1
3m +11
12m +55
Value had a fun few months but is its party over?
China had an extraordinary year, but is it too late to play the 'first back from COVID' card?
Tech has been tracking the US, more or less.
GS put a buy on Exxon...is there more to run for energy?
agip wrote:
Ranked by 1 month returns
Energy
1m +19
3m +26
12m -26
Small Caps
1m +10
3m +24
12m +20
tech
1m +6
3m +12
12m +46
Non-US developed
1m +6
3m +12
12m +10
USA
1m +5
3m +12
12m +21
EM
1m +5
3m +12
12m +16
Value
1m +4
3m +11
12m +3
China
1m -1
3m +11
12m +55
Value had a fun few months but is its party over?
China had an extraordinary year, but is it too late to play the 'first back from COVID' card?
Tech has been tracking the US, more or less.
GS put a buy on Exxon...is there more to run for energy?
Why are we comparing percentages to emerging markets? Of course they've got more room to run - they're emerging.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Ranked by 1 month returns
Energy
1m +19
3m +26
12m -26
Small Caps
1m +10
3m +24
12m +20
tech
1m +6
3m +12
12m +46
Non-US developed
1m +6
3m +12
12m +10
USA
1m +5
3m +12
12m +21
EM
1m +5
3m +12
12m +16
Value
1m +4
3m +11
12m +3
China
1m -1
3m +11
12m +55
Value had a fun few months but is its party over?
China had an extraordinary year, but is it too late to play the 'first back from COVID' card?
Tech has been tracking the US, more or less.
GS put a buy on Exxon...is there more to run for energy?
Why are we comparing percentages to emerging markets? Of course they've got more room to run - they're emerging.
brilliant...that's the sort of analysis that gets you the title doctor.
In other news, bitcoin up 6% and a new ATH.
$20, 679
In even more news, the yield curve is the steepest since 2017
the market is seeing some big economic activity around the bend.
have stocks already priced this in?
Or maybe the bond market is just pricing in inflation, not growth.
TIPS have been crushing ordinary treasuries
12m
Treasuries +7%
TIPS +10.1%
Gold +25%
Not sure if the term of the bonds is the same so don't take those #s to the bank.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Why are we comparing percentages to emerging markets? Of course they've got more room to run - they're emerging.
brilliant...that's the sort of analysis that gets you the title doctor.
In other news, bitcoin up 6% and a new ATH.
$20, 679
You're being sarcastic but honestly that's not far off
BTC I have good exposure, about 13% NW at the moment. Could play around with it, cash in now at the ATH and get back in after a drop... but will probably just let it ride.
Some areas there may be undervaluation:
1. Banking - wells fargo: are interest rates really gonna stay low for awhile? Are people going to default much? Is crypto and DEFI going to kill standard centralized big banks?
2. Energy/oil - are renewables overblown and will there be a surge in price after economic activity goes full throttle by June of next year?
3. Airlines/travel/cruises - still underpriced? I bought in a little near the lows, thought they would for sure rebound on vaccine. When I was flying to and from Florida this week, seemed to be a good amount of activity. Plane was about 60% full.
My bitcoin up 10% yesterday and opened up another 15% today.
Yowza
I am sticking with Tesla, bitcoin, and a couple of Chinese EV companies for now.
Along with gold stocks for when the bottom falls out
I'm up to $45 in bitcoin. Look out.
Wish I hadn't sold some gold last week.
But with the US setting another all time high today, I've got nothing to complain about.
agip wrote:
I'm up to $45 in bitcoin. Look out.
Wish I hadn't sold some gold last week.
But with the US setting another all time high today, I've got nothing to complain about.
Just sold about 2/3rd of my bitcoin.
It was up 28% since close on Tuesday (18% today) and I think there may be a retrenchment.
We'll see.
Damn.
Was up over 18% when I sold.
Now up only 13%.
Should have dumped all maybe
The Unkle wrote:
Damn.
Was up over 18% when I sold.
Now up only 13%.
Should have dumped all maybe
The trader's lament.
Whenever I need cheering up I look at Quicken and just marvel at being up 300%+ in multiple ETFS.
Puts the quiet in me.
agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
Damn.
Was up over 18% when I sold.
Now up only 13%.
Should have dumped all maybe
The trader's lament.
Whenever I need cheering up I look at Quicken and just marvel at being up 300%+ in multiple ETFS.
Puts the quiet in me.
I am no good at the dips.
agip wrote:
The trader's lament.
Whenever I need cheering up I look at Quicken and just marvel at being up 300%+ in multiple ETFS.
Puts the quiet in me.
Which ETFs are up 300%??
Doesn't it feel like a sugar high right now? Everybody's making money... all the common bro trades are up huge - BTC, Tesla, etc.
How does this end? Just keep going up up? Or is there a pullback.
Rates are so low that holding cash doesn't even make sense. And most people are just locked down, working and stacking cash... so there's no need to have much cash liquid.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
agip wrote:
The trader's lament.
Whenever I need cheering up I look at Quicken and just marvel at being up 300%+ in multiple ETFS.
Puts the quiet in me.
Which ETFs are up 300%??
Probably most bull 3x leveraged ones
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Doesn't it feel like a sugar high right now? Everybody's making money... all the common bro trades are up huge - BTC, Tesla, etc.
All the common everything trades are up man. Fed isn't raising rates until 2023. The only reason to sell anything in the meantime would be to escape government regulation crackdowns like on Google, Amazon, or Facebook. That's pretty much the only headwind.