Down goes the Dow

Bubbles feed on that belief, how else to you get where we are. The Fed knows that it is confidence game, while the truth is their policies destroy price discovery, and reduce economic growth. Greenspan started the serial bubbles, and Powell has blown the Whopper. The only thing that is yesteryear is the periodic belief that fundamentals don’t matter. It ends with the largest drawdown ever in asset prices, and suddenly investors realize fundamentals do matter. Who would have known? Who is to blame this time?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Punter wrote:

Of course the majority of pundits are bullish. The markets have been on a steady, long rise. They have been right.

Of course that is even greater confirmation bias. Hoping the past represents the future without any intellectual argument other than that is the easiest path forward. That rarely hsppens in life, and in financial markets never.

So it’s different this time?

My argument was as intellectual as yours, just more succinct.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Punter wrote:

Of course the majority of pundits are bullish. The markets have been on a steady, long rise. They have been right.

Of course that is even greater confirmation bias. Hoping the past represents the future without any intellectual argument other than that is the easiest path forward. That rarely hsppens in life, and in financial markets never.

except when the Fed has your back. And that's not going to change anytime soon. Probably the exact opposite, frankly.

Go ahead and dismiss it, but it is real, effective, pernicious. And you can just about bank on it.

I’ll bank on shorting what you are buying?

Will we see that the Dow at 13,000 next year? Or will the Fed push off the inevitable until 2022?

The Unkle wrote:

Will we see that the Dow at 13,000 next year? Or will the Fed push off the inevitable until 2022?

7+ years and you’re still singing the same tune.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I’ll bank on shorting what you are buying?

How's that working for ya? (Hint: i've been tracking it and already know the answer).

Punter wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Will we see that the Dow at 13,000 next year? Or will the Fed push off the inevitable until 2022?

7+ years and you’re still singing the same tune.

Do you have no idea as to what is happening?

The economy is in tatters and going to get a lot worse as we head into a winter of business lockdowns.

There is only long the Fed can artificially prop up the market by printing money.

The Unkle wrote:

Punter wrote:

7+ years and you’re still singing the same tune.

Do you have no idea as to what is happening?

The economy is in tatters and going to get a lot worse as we head into a winter of business lockdowns.

There is only long the Fed can artificially prop up the market by printing money.

mebbe you aren't aware that the economy is growing.

Just checking to make sure you know that.

ISM services, ISM mfgring, GDP, all expanding very quickly

The Unkle wrote:

Punter wrote:

7+ years and you’re still singing the same tune.

Do you have no idea as to what is happening?

The economy is in tatters and going to get a lot worse as we head into a winter of business lockdowns.

There is only long the Fed can artificially prop up the market by printing money.

lots riding on a covid relief package. ANd the market seems to acknowledge that.

Igy you don’t seem to understand that this is not a distortion of the old market, but is instead an entirely new market, after a fundamental transformation.

Having said that, I am once again considering buying Berkshire. I like the convertibility, and I like that others might be doing some of the leg work. I also like the cash on hand, and the possibility of acquisition or further buybacks. What do tou think, looking ahead 10-15 years?

agip wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Do you have no idea as to what is happening?

The economy is in tatters and going to get a lot worse as we head into a winter of business lockdowns.

There is only long the Fed can artificially prop up the market by printing money.

mebbe you aren't aware that the economy is growing.

Just checking to make sure you know that.

ISM services, ISM mfgring, GDP, all expanding very quickly

Sure it is. Millions of businesses gone forever with many more to follow as we head into lockdown.

Tens of millions of evictions teed up.

More food insecurity than any time in my lifetime.

Unemployment claims surging.

States and cities all broke --

The economy is doing great.

The Unkle wrote:

agip wrote:

mebbe you aren't aware that the economy is growing.

Just checking to make sure you know that.

ISM services, ISM mfgring, GDP, all expanding very quickly

Sure it is. Millions of businesses gone forever with many more to follow as we head into lockdown.

Tens of millions of evictions teed up.

More food insecurity than any time in my lifetime.

Unemployment claims surging.

States and cities all broke --

The economy is doing great.

definitely short the market. Please.

Punter wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Of course that is even greater confirmation bias. Hoping the past represents the future without any intellectual argument other than that is the easiest path forward. That rarely hsppens in life, and in financial markets never.

So it’s different this time?

My argument was as intellectual as yours, just more succinct.

No, not different except in your mind:

Maserati wrote:

Igy you don’t seem to understand that this is not a distortion of the old market, but is instead an entirely new market, after a fundamental transformation.

Having said that, I am once again considering buying Berkshire. I like the convertibility, and I like that others might be doing some of the leg work. I also like the cash on hand, and the possibility of acquisition or further buybacks. What do tou think, looking ahead 10-15 years?

20% is Apple I believe. Good business, way too expensive right now for a fundamental guy. All you have to be is patient and you’ll get it 50% cheaper. Let is come to you.

agip wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Sure it is. Millions of businesses gone forever with many more to follow as we head into lockdown.

Tens of millions of evictions teed up.

More food insecurity than any time in my lifetime.

Unemployment claims surging.

States and cities all broke --

The economy is doing great.

definitely short the market. Please.

Don't whine.

Maserati wrote:

Igy you don’t seem to understand that this is not a distortion of the old market, but is instead an entirely new market, after a fundamental transformation.

Having said that, I am once again considering buying Berkshire. I like the convertibility, and I like that others might be doing some of the leg work. I also like the cash on hand, and the possibility of acquisition or further buybacks. What do tou think, looking ahead 10-15 years?

That has been the conservative part of my portfilio for quite some time now. currently up 65% overall. Not really watching it much, buy it and forget about it part of the portfolio.

Talking about AIrBnB, my gut on that one is long term will probably work out as a very good investment. It has the usual earmarking of those that defied logic. At these levels, not buying, but will watch for a much lower entry point.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Punter wrote:

So it’s different this time?

My argument was as intellectual as yours, just more succinct.

No, not different except in your mind.

You contradict yourself. First you posit that in financial markets the past never represents the future (history suggests otherwise in the long term). Now you suggest it is not different this time. Confused much?

Yes I have been waiting. Almost pulled the trigger on a few in March, but capital was tied up. I would dearly love to get it half price, but how long to wait. Plus I already own AAPL.