Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

For now.

Actually it’s been for over a decade.

The power of $7 Trillion in QE. Exactly my point.

Great return on investment. Exactly my point.

let's just say there is a giant flood of money out there looking for a place to work.

In other news, I bought some XLE, for a trade. Oil stocks are showing signs of a short squeeze and after watching around 40 of these things, I want to finally play one.

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1337105117175279618?s=20

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 4 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 4 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 4 have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 4 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 4 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 4 have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Now for the rest of the story:

“If -9.9% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the third-largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009, trailing only the first and second quarters of this year. It will also mark the seventh time in the past eight quarters in which the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings.”

agip wrote:

let's just say there is a giant flood of money out there looking for a place to work.

In other news, I bought some XLE, for a trade. Oil stocks are showing signs of a short squeeze and after watching around 40 of these things, I want to finally play one.

I am convinced Citadel has an algo driven bot that just fades every DgtD poster's call; XLE -1.15%.

In other news, Sven goes home devastated.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

agip wrote:

let's just say there is a giant flood of money out there looking for a place to work.

In other news, I bought some XLE, for a trade. Oil stocks are showing signs of a short squeeze and after watching around 40 of these things, I want to finally play one.

I am convinced Citadel has an algo driven bot that just fades every DgtD poster's call; XLE -1.15%.

In other news, Sven goes home devastated.

https://twitter.com/fed_speak/status/1337470481948094466/photo/1

Sven Heinrick maneuver came in 8th with 6.6% of the votes. I guess we aren't the only ones to recognize him as the loser who just doesn't quit.

They didn’t pick the Fed number one? Huh!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

They didn’t pick the Fed number one? Huh!

Oh, come on, Igy! It was a ballot and people voted. People don't agree with you. So, just claim fraud like every other sore loser we have come to recognize as our neighbors and fellow citizens.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

They didn’t pick the Fed number one? Huh!

They did get 7 votes but the actual voting was for those on or were on fintwit in 2020. Interesting that Nathan Tankus got 78 write in votes ( I doubt anyone here knows who he is ) and Stephanie Kelton received 14 write in votes. ( I'm currently reading her book "the Deficit Myth" )

Not familiar with either one. Several of the others mentioned I am familiar with. A friend of mine subscribed to Sven for several months at $180/month. :-)

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

They didn’t pick the Fed number one? Huh!

Oh, come on, Igy! It was a ballot and people voted. People don't agree with you. So, just claim fraud like every other sore loser we have come to recognize as our neighbors and fellow citizens.

Count evey vote?!

seattle prattle wrote:

Sven Heinrick maneuver came in 8th with 6.6% of the votes. I guess we aren't the only ones to recognize him as the loser who just doesn't quit.

There is a great late Alexander Cockburn quote I came across in Doug Henwood's eulogy to Bob Fitch some years ago. "Alexander Cockburn once said the mission of the bourgeois pundit is “to fire volley after volley of cliché into the densely packed prejudices of his readers.” Left media often do the same ..." The same could be said of perma bears ( and perma bulls ), they play to the biases of their readers who are seeking confirmation. One of the raps against Sven is he writes a newsletter and thus as Taleb would say, has no skin in the game. He collects his subscriber's cash, it doesn't matter if he is right or wrong.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

They didn’t pick the Fed number one? Huh!

Oh, come on, Igy! It was a ballot and people voted. People don't agree with you. So, just claim fraud like every other sore loser we have come to recognize as our neighbors and fellow citizens.

Oh, snap!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Oh, come on, Igy! It was a ballot and people voted. People don't agree with you. So, just claim fraud like every other sore loser we have come to recognize as our neighbors and fellow citizens.

Count evey vote three times (and still don't believe it) ?!

fixed it for you.

OK, but every Wall Street firm and main financial media fall into the perma bull camp. So where does that leave you? On a daily basis there is far more perma bull versus perma bear market information. Even in retirement I consume more of the former since that is mostly what you get on CNBC and Bloomberg. There are a few reporters like Lisa Abramowicz willing to challenge overly bullish PMs. More likely the bear is made fun of for being wrong. Of course wrong because the Fed destroyed market pricing, and encouraged speculation across a broad base of assets. Door Dash and ARNB shows this era more like the Tech Bubble and home price gains reveal it is more like the Housing Bubble. Two for one.

Of course the majority of pundits are bullish. The markets have been on a steady, long rise. They have been right.

Equities became a collector market already a decade ago. They are almost totally speculative, relying on a community of interest to constitute a market.

As with other collectibles, the community of interest maintains a shared theory of value, often built on a foundation of he sanction of authority and buttressed by surrounding structures. It is as simple as that.

Assignations of value are no different than in any other collector phenomenon, be it stamps, coins, dolls, art, luxury RE, watches, violins, orchids, cars, wine, jewels, etc. With equities the surrounding structures are enormous, and the community of interest is huge and increasingly monolithic.

It matters at this point not one bit if a company is a zombie, if it has ever made a cent, whatever. In fact, those are often the most highly-prized collector items, as are defective coins and stamps. The interest and resulting value lies not in its potential to generate business return, but instead on its intangible qualities like hope, vision, intrigue, power, identity.

The surrounding structures maintain and strengthen attitudes toward that which should be seen as important, and people manifest these attitudes in what they buy, and for how much. This includes not only retail investors, but fund managers and programmers of investing machines, even AI algos.

Yes there are “fundamentals”, but they are not the business fundamentals of yesteryear.

Of course equity and debt markets pale in comparison to currencies and money, which is where the real action is, and will be.