Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
Igy, did you finally buy HSGFX?
Yes.
Igy - why would you buy a fund that has the lowest Morningstar rating, has a track record that is historically bad, and has an expense ratio of about 1.23%? You do understand that index funds beat the performance of actively managed funds by a large margin? Yes?
The Unkle wrote:
agip wrote:
because the economy is forecasted to grow at a pretty high rate of speed starting in 2Q21.
you say that the forecasts are wrong...but those forecasts are why stocks are doing well.
I mean people are going to start being vaccinated in 5 weeks.
meanwhile we have a growing economy, with companies having shed a lot of dead wood, interest rates at a low, the Fed has their back, the trade wars are likely over....good bullish stuff.
You don't know that stringent and long lasting lockdowns of businesses is coming and our economy will be in tatters in 2021?
How can you not?
because politicians don't believe there would be compliance with massive shutdowns.
take a gander at the wire houses' predictions for the 2021 economy. Your 'how could anyone think we aren't doomed' questions would be easily answered.
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes.
Igy - why would you buy a fund that has the lowest Morningstar rating, has a track record that is historically bad, and has an expense ratio of about 1.23%? You do understand that index funds beat the performance of actively managed funds by a large margin? Yes?
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
You lose Sally:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - why would you buy a fund that has the lowest Morningstar rating, has a track record that is historically bad, and has an expense ratio of about 1.23%? You do understand that index funds beat the performance of actively managed funds by a large margin? Yes?
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
Over the "next" 10 years. Too funny. You have been promising their demise for many years now.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You lose Sally:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance
That chart you linked showed the Hussman strategic fund dropping like a lead balloon (or Led Zeppelin) since 2010. You really wanted to show that?
I’ll just continue to remind you of your naivety.
Igy let's compare the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund to VTI (Vanguard total markete- a very popular index fund over the last 10 years or so ...
Hussman - EVERY YEAR Hussman has a negative return
2019
-18.86%0.45%
2018
8.78%-0.26%
2017
-12.72%2.37%
2016
-11.49%2.23%
2015
-8.40%-0.25%
2014
-8.50%0.76%
2013
-6.62%2.92%
2012
-12.62%0.18%
2011
1.64%-0.30%
2010
-3.62%-2.00%
2009
4.63%
VTI
2019
30.80%N/A
2018
-5.13%N/A
2017
21.16%N/A
2016
12.68%N/A
2015
0.40%-0.63%
2014
12.56%11.79%
2013
33.51%31.44%
2012
16.41%14.21%
2011
1.06%1.68%
2010
17.26%17.79%
2009
28.82%32.26%
Past history is not indicative of future performance.?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I’ll just continue to remind you of your naivety.
I deal in facts. You deal in fantasy.
Hussman Fund - 10 year annual return - NEGATIVE -6.43%
VTI - 10 year annual return - 12.81% Positive 12.81%
You bought a dog.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Past history is not indicative of future performance.?
Let's hope that is true for your Hussman fund!
agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
You don't know that stringent and long lasting lockdowns of businesses is coming and our economy will be in tatters in 2021?
How can you not?
because politicians don't believe there would be compliance with massive shutdowns.
take a gander at the wire houses' predictions for the 2021 economy. Your 'how could anyone think we aren't doomed' questions would be easily answered.
I’m hoping Dementia Joe attempts a lockdown and mask mandate outdoors as promised.
The pushback from us despised Trumpers will be epic. In general, we aren’t crazy violent anarchists like the leftists, but we’ll only be pushed around so much before we say no more.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
There’s your buy signal, folks.
agip wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
You don't know that stringent and long lasting lockdowns of businesses is coming and our economy will be in tatters in 2021?
How can you not?
because politicians don't believe there would be compliance with massive shutdowns.
take a gander at the wire houses' predictions for the 2021 economy. Your 'how could anyone think we aren't doomed' questions would be easily answered.
Lots of countervailing forces atm.
Barring an extraordinary external event (like the onset of a significant regional war with either oil or weapons support implications), I believe the narrative will continue to carry the day, defining the short term, for the reasons I gave earlier. They were akin to agip’s factors, and I believe in them insofar as they are useful for the narrative.
Market-damaging instability will take a while, IMO. I think things stay reasonably upbeat until midterm campaigning really kicks in—especially in the short term if D gets the senate. They will be in full control of the narrative, and the Fed will be kept in check.
I will be in for the short term, but remain very nimble. It will be like a fragile peace.
Btw IMO R’a are a failure, notwithstanding their House performance. IMO T’s campaign sucked except for his personal energy, and the gift of RBG’s death.
When R really blew it was when they were in full control, after voters sent a strong message about Obama/Hillary. They REALLY blew that opportunity. D will not, if they get it, unless they succumb to in-fighting. I think the in-fighting will be fiscally smoothed over at the direct expense of the taxpayer, which is why I am working assiduously to reduce my US tax liability to zero—not only this year, but going forward. I used to be ok with it, but no longer. Someone else can pay now.
Also, money printing will further inflation when—not if—the printed money goes anywhere other than to bank reserves. Full D control will make this happen.
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Because your index funds will be the absolute worst investment over the next ten years.
There’s your buy signal, folks.
Remember HSGFX and XLE. This guy is big money.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
There’s your buy signal, folks.
Remember HSGFX and XLE. This guy is big money.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. You’ll make money betting against this guy.
What does everyone thing about bank stocks? Obviously with low interest rates profits are not looking great over the short to medium term, but many are still down pretty hard. Citigroup and Wells Fargo especially are two mega banks that are still down big time... Wells Fargo has a lot of issues, but it seems like the Fed isn't allowing big banks to fail, so it should survive and come back with time. If it does, a person could earn some pretty substantial profits... But of course there's speculation there.
I took a lot of profits recently when things shot up 15% in a day. Been wanting to get back to where the vast majority of my holdings are in S and P 500 index funds, but I'm still keeping several of my individual stocks and ETFs...
On top of all that, why the hell is the market near all time highs? Shouldn't we have a 10% correction or so? If you had a large sum of cash right now, would you wait to put it in or not?