Also, you weren’t there talking with him.
Also, you weren’t there talking with him.
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - do you think a 40,000 Dow is on the not-too-far horizon? Say 3 years?
Sally,
I think you find the answer in this book. It should be an appropriate road map for the future. Plus you can get it on sale.
https://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998Igy
Sally Vix wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - do you think a 40,000 Dow is on the not-too-far horizon? Say 3 years?
I just saw this after my post. Igy - would you agree with this ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/dow-jones-could-hit-the-40000-point-level-next-year-analyst-says-.html
You would be wise to study this chart rather than someone selling you their stock inventory.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/7-1.pngNo, he bought as much as I did. He never asked me about my vote, though, which I took as a sign that he wasn’t interested in people who seemed legit.
Got decimated in the markets today. I am thinking of going back to my old trading ways, since the only thing I have as a memento of that mentality is some TSLA—and it’s the only thing that’s up, apart from the early gold gains.
Maserati wrote:
I’m not going into particulars, other than to say that that day, he was mostly signing people up to vote. I would guess that their ballots were all sent to his place, or somewhere where he could get them, since nobody had a fixed address. I would also guess they were voted absentee.
Anybody can request a ballot here, registered or not. If a bunch of registered voter ballots go to one place, they can be executed and returned without any witness signature requirement. Unregistered ballots can also be signed by whomever. Nowhere along the chain of a mail-in vote are the identities of the voter or witness, if needed, verifiably established.
Not only that, but there was no ID requirement for in-person voting here—you just gave a name that they checked, and went in. I watched as incredulous voters asked about it. I know someone who checked the status of her ballot after having voted, only to find out that she had voted twice. Only when she called to set the record straight was the one already on record canceled.
https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/other-ways-to-vote/vote-early-by-mail/I knew I shouldn’t have mentioned this issue that inflames such passions.
That's neat! Only requires that someone get, ya know, 1000s of legitimate ballots in their possession.
There's a been a billion studies on this. Voter fraud doesn't happen. The entire process is pretty bipartisan
Studies? Somebody studied my personal experience?
I’m no sucker. It is my nature and training as a lawyer to be skeptical of everyone and everything. I judged him to have been credible.
The only really questionable judgment on my part is my generalization of my personal experience to other jurisdictions. I have made that generalization because subsequent to my experience, I have heard accounts published which relate exactly the same facts that I experienced. Exactly. Too exact to be accidental, IMO.
What IS difficult to believe is that anybody would accept the conclusion that “voter fraud doesn’t happen”, as if it were a physical law. Apparently this is an article of faith for you, and that’s fine. Again, I am not here to change anybody’s mind, just to relate my experience as the foundation of my prediction about airlines.
In actual bad news, I just got an $18k assessment to pay off a botched hvac project on our US condo building. I told them, and here we are, it fell on deaf ears. We will litigate when damages are finally ascertained, which will be within the month, the filings are ready.
Tesla doesn't make sense.
Their software isn't special.
Their design isn't special.
Their name COULD BE special if they keep it premium.
Their battery tech or supply line COULD BE special... but aren't those engineers going to eventually work for other car manufacturers and the tech will spread.
So imagine BMW or Audi puts out a high end electric. Toyota does cheap low end. What makes Tesla so special there.
sorry to hear that about the HVAC project. Bummer.
As for the homeless voter fraud, if "thousands" were being alleged between the guy Mas talked to and the guy's buddies, it may be of interest to note that as recently as Jan. or last year, there was estimated to be only 8,000 homeless on any given day in Minn.
That's not a terribly large number, so for thousands to be collected amongst them, perhaps the census bureau would be wise to enlist that guy and his buddies.
I don't know what's going on there, but something sounds amiss and I am having a hard time reaching any conclusions from all this.
Maserati wrote:
Studies? Somebody studied my personal experience?
I’m no sucker. It is my nature and training as a lawyer to be skeptical of everyone and everything. I judged him to have been credible.
The only really questionable judgment on my part is my generalization of my personal experience to other jurisdictions. I have made that generalization because subsequent to my experience, I have heard accounts published which relate exactly the same facts that I experienced. Exactly. Too exact to be accidental, IMO.
What IS difficult to believe is that anybody would accept the conclusion that “voter fraud doesn’t happen”, as if it were a physical law. Apparently this is an article of faith for you, and that’s fine. Again, I am not here to change anybody’s mind, just to relate my experience as the foundation of my prediction about airlines.
OK so I'm not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that I was doubting your personal experience with this guy actually occurred. I have no doubt about that, I'm simply calling the validity of this stranger you talked to in a take out line.
The fact you've seen "accounts published which relate exactly the same facts that I experienced. Exactly. Too exact to be accidental" is not evidence of an actuality. It's simply evidence of a narrative. Without anything to actually support that narrative, it's simply called "fiction". And funny enough, I've read a lot of fiction books, many very similar to each other. Perhaps too similar to be accidental.
There are dozens of high profile research cases on voter fraud. It doesn't happen unless you string together the most improbably conspiracy theories on Earth.
The Heritage Foundation is one of the most conservative think tanks you can possibly find. The looked into it - and found 1200 cases... in all time.
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraudIt does not happen. I encourage you to talk to the hard working volunteers and poll workers on how the process works. I think it will encourage you, and you'll find opportunities for such fraud pretty low
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_1 wrote:
Tesla doesn't make sense.
Their software isn't special.
Their design isn't special.
Their name COULD BE special if they keep it premium.
Their battery tech or supply line COULD BE special... but aren't those engineers going to eventually work for other car manufacturers and the tech will spread.
So imagine BMW or Audi puts out a high end electric. Toyota does cheap low end. What makes Tesla so special there.
making a brand worth something is one of the hardest things in business. I read somewhere that in the last 30 years the entire country of Italy has created only one new valuable brand: Geox. That's how hard it is.
The Tesla brand is worth trillions or at least hundreds of billions of dollars. People know it, trust it and are fanatical about it. That alone will ensure the survival of the company in some form. Maybe not independent, but as a brand, it is set for a generation or two.
Geez Racket, we have lived here for 6 federal election cycles now, since Bush v Gore. Our building has always been a polling place until this election! I HAVE BEEN THE BUILDING REP, WORKING WITH THE STATE ELECTIONS COMMISSION TO ENSURE THE INTEGRITY OF THE PROCESS. Pretty much all of the poll workers/judges are/have been residents of our building, people I know personally. One neighbor and good friend was the party whip! We have even had primaries here!! And another friend neighbor ran in this election!!! And I got a friend to be an election judge before she was even eligible to vote—when she was 16!!!!
Even though I have never voted, I have ALWAYS been present at the polling station.
Believe me, I know how elections here have been conducted since 2000.
agip wrote:
The Tesla brand is worth trillions or at least hundreds of billions of dollars. People know it, trust it and are fanatical about it. That alone will ensure the survival of the company in some form. Maybe not independent, but as a brand, it is set for a generation or two.
People are just as fanatatical about GM, VW (or Audi), BMW, or Ford.
Really, it lines up best with Porsche. Cheap fanatics looking to buy into a name yuppie name brand to impress their friends. Is Porsche worth 350 billion? No, it isn't
Maserati wrote:.What IS difficult to believe is that anybody would accept the conclusion that “voter fraud doesn’t happen”, as if it were a physical law.
I’m not sure too many people think voter fraud doesn’t happen. Certainly it does, in every election in various forms. Some degree of cheating is human nature and happens in all aspects of life.
Suggesting that widespread fraud occurred in orchestrated fashion undermines the validity of the democratic process, building a case for totalitarianism.
One doesn’t have to believe the system perf3ct to trust that it works; one only needs to believe that there are enough checks and balances so that it works “well enough” to yield a fair outcome.
There was probably voter fraud by some parties on behalf of Biden, which you seem to be suggesting. The only way that is objectively bad in the broader sense is if Trump supporters were lily white, with no jiggery pokery among that group. Imagining wide scale fraud on behalf of Biden unopposed by the same on behalf or Trump doesn’t withstand this idiot’s sniff test.
The past week I've been playing around with some of the Fed's new granular research on household balance sheets ( Z.1 ) and wealth ( The Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA) ), when not babysitting the grandchildren and helping my wife rescue an abandon kitten. I'll share some of the results.
First, here is an approximate chart of US household ( and non-profit ) percentage holdings of equities ( ebony line ), cash -currency, savings and checking deposits and money market funds ( avocado line ) and bonds ( azure line ) from 1945 to 2Q 2020. I've also drew lines representing each asset's average allocation for the entire series.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=xPsa
Now here are some charts of each asset allocation with average and 1 standard deviation. Interestingly, equities and cash have about the same deviation; equities average allocation 45.2% and stdev 10.24, cash aver 36.3% and stdev 10.26 and bonds aver18.5 and stdev 4.4.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=xV3A
It is pretty clear that investors and home owners have benefited enormously in the rise of asset values over the last five years. If I wanted to purchase my current house, which has doubled in value in the seven and half years since I purchased it, I could not afford it. So I am not sure the growth in paper wealth is all the meaningful, if the other side of the hill is a dramatic fall in prices, or the asset inflation is so great the distortion becomes the equalizer.
gente great stuff.
maybe give us a thumbnail description of what you found and what you think it means?
agip wrote:
gente great stuff.
maybe give us a thumbnail description of what you found and what you think it means?
Here's a link to the data you can interact with.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xN9C#0First thing I noticed was the under allocation to equities from the 1974 crash until the early 90s; low points were in Q2 1982 and Q3 1985, a 2 STDEV ( the Dotcom peak was 1.85 STDEV ). Yet there was a Bull Market in the 80s!
CASH- starting in the mid to late 60s, and mirroring the decline in equities, there is a gradual rise in cash peaking in Q2 1982 ( 59.4% a 2.25 stdev ) and staying elevated until Q4 1984, from there it declines down to 21.7% ( 1.4 stdev ) in Q1 2000.
BONDS- a decline in allocation from the end of WW2 ( 24% ) until Q4 1972 ( 10% almost a 2 stdev ). Equity allocation would be above 50% that same Q and would not top 50% until Q2 1997. Bond allocation would rise until Q4 1994 ( 27.4% a 2 stdev ) and from there would drop to 14.2% in Q1 2000; same Q low as cash and the highest allocation to equities in the series ( 64.1% ). During the 80s while equity allocation was flat, bonds were replacing the falling cash allocation. The aggregate bond index registered a loss in 1994, the first since its inception in 87, and the 90s Bull Market began in Q1 1995. Bond allocation would rise after the Financial crisis to a new high, over 28% ( 2.25 stdev )
Also, not covered by this data, 3 month T-Bills outperformed S&P 500 from mid 60s to mid 80s!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If I wanted to purchase my current house, which has doubled in value in the seven and half years since I purchased it, I could not afford it.
Of course you could afford it. You should be able to afford anything equal to the net value of your home. Of course, I am assuming you do not have a mortgage, or much of one.
Stew wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If I wanted to purchase my current house, which has doubled in value in the seven and half years since I purchased it, I could not afford it.
Of course you could afford it. You should be able to afford anything equal to the net value of your home. Of course, I am assuming you do not have a mortgage, or much of one.
I could not afford it based on my risk tolerance. I had a friend move to the Bay Area, and undertook a huge mortgage. He feels with five years to retirement, he can sell it down the road and be ahead of renting. I suppose if the next five years were like the last he will be ahead. Nothing I would bet on, however.
