Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1299344772377739264/photo/1

Haha, that's pretty funny, and probably not too far off the truth... and the gazillion dollar question is, when does the money run out, and what happens then? Meanwhile, they're fueling a fast moving train.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1299344772377739264/photo/1

Obviously longer than the 9 years.

Shooting down your comment that equity purchases since 2011 will not do well.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1299344772377739264/photo/1

Haha, that's pretty funny, and probably not too far off the truth... and the gazillion dollar question is, when does the money run out, and what happens then? Meanwhile, they're fueling a fast moving train.

Policies designed to encourage debt, and support consumption have extended markets. Unfortunately economic growth comes from savings, and investment. So I would assume markets are here by a misunderstanding of these facts, and where we ultimately land. In other words, the Fed’s power lies in it’s ability to influence speculation, and boy have they.

Since you commented, John Hussman’s response:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1299364979263582210

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I would much rather own TECS here.

and short tesla while you're at it.

David Einhorn might agree with you there

I’d be curious to know what Ghost of Igloi’s performance has been. With how much of gains that have been missed if he did what he actually did.

With all of the gains missed, market would need to have epic collapse of like 90%.

If you consider gains durable since March 23rd then quite a bit. That is not my view however.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

If you consider gains durable since March 23rd then quite a bit. That is not my view however.

Price appreciation doesn't have to be durable in order to be profitable.

OK. Most investors will act like they did in March. Fortunately for them $Trillions bailed them out.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

If you consider gains durable since March 23rd then quite a bit. That is not my view however.

If you have done quite well, do you do opposite of what you say on here? I don't see how you have been doing well for the past 5 or more years. I would think your performance will mirror John Hussman's portfolio.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

I’ll take that as a yes.

407/447 posts and limpy guy still needs a hard.....

It’s cheaper than Viagra.

My total portfolio does not match Hussman. I believe his view of where we are headed is correct, however. There is a good chance over a five year period I had one of the higher returns at market close on March 23, 2020. Currently, I am most likely trailing nearly everyone currently, perhaps ahead of those that sold and never got back in. These things happen. That said, I will likely be near the top, as fundamentals reassert themself, and speculators begin to get burned, and the Fed is exposed as powerless to stop the rollover.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2020 (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 84% is the final percentage, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My total portfolio does not match Hussman. I believe his view of where we are headed is correct, however. There is a good chance over a five year period I had one of the higher returns at market close on March 23, 2020. Currently, I am most likely trailing nearly everyone currently, perhaps ahead of those that sold and never got back in. These things happen. That said, I will likely be near the top, as fundamentals reassert themself, and speculators begin to get burned, and the Fed is exposed as powerless to stop the rollover.

What have you been investing the last 5 years that you believe you had one the highest returns? I was invested almost everything in AMZN the last 5 years. Just curious what you have been investing that would give you such a high return.

Good job. I would sell it all if I were you. Good luck anyway.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good job. I would sell it all if I were you. Good luck anyway.

What were you invested in that made your returns so high at end of March? Were you ahead of everyone in February as well?

Bummbull wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My total portfolio does not match Hussman. I believe his view of where we are headed is correct, however. There is a good chance over a five year period I had one of the higher returns at market close on March 23, 2020. Currently, I am most likely trailing nearly everyone currently, perhaps ahead of those that sold and never got back in. These things happen. That said, I will likely be near the top, as fundamentals reassert themself, and speculators begin to get burned, and the Fed is exposed as powerless to stop the rollover.

What have you been investing the last 5 years that you believe you had one the highest returns? I was invested almost everything in AMZN the last 5 years. Just curious what you have been investing that would give you such a high return.

I would love to know the answer to this as well. Igy is equity-adverse so he has missed out the 400% increase over the last 12 years. He is huge on CDs which have had NEGATIVE real rates of return over the last 10 years. Bonds? I don't think so. Igy, what ARE you invested in? You had previously mentioned laddered CDs. Again, CDs are pretty much the worst investment going.

Bummbull,

Most investment managers are measured against some index. For large company managers that is typically the S&P 500. At the March lows the five year annualized S&P 500 Index return was about 0.70%, and the Dow slightly better. The NASDAQ Composite was the equity winner annualized at about 6.3% a year. Dividends would drive the total annualized return of the S&P and Dow up by another 2%, or so, and get the NASDAQ closer to 7%. Russell 2000 Small Cap the loser for that period with a negative total return of -1%. During that same time period the I-Shares 20+ Treasury ETF was up annualized at 7%, and with dividends added close to 10%. Gold was annualized at 10% with no dividend. In summary, there were plenty of investments that did better or worse than the S&P 500.

Now Sally likes to say I have been in CDs that entire time even though I have corrected that troll on numerous occasions. Buy Sally suffers from gender confusion, and really is a man named Bob. So go figure. That said, CDs outperformed the S&P 500 in 2018, and just slightly behind that index in the five year period outlined above. One of the other points not discussed is risk adjusted return, or measuring the risk you are taking, against your return. CDs dramatically outperformed on the basis.

In past posts the views I have made is stocks and bonds are very expensive relative to history; even more so today. On many measures never higher, like Market Cap to GDP for stocks, or yield for bonds. Therefore, one needs to balance asset exposure against risk tolerance, and time horizon. Many sober market analysts project meagre investment returns over the next ten years, with the likelihood of significant downdrafts along the way. Fed actions for the moment saved the market from wiping out a decade of returns. It is my opinion that risks remain high, and the recent speculation increases the possibility of further slides, likely below where we were in March.

Good luck.

Igy