Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Happy Anniversary, DGTD. 7 years of this. Wouldn't trade a minute of it. Well maybe a few.

We're up 90% in pure Dow points, plus what? 15-20 percent points worth of dividends. A double despite all the nasty garbage we've had to live through.

Not too shabby. Buying every dip has proven to be wildly profitable

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“It’s useful to remember that long-term returns represent not only trough-to-peak advances, but peak-to-trough resolutions as well. Buy-and-hold investors don’t get the trough-to-peak return. They get the full cycle return. Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the longer the subsequent period of disappointing returns, in several instances extending more than a decade, though not without intermittent failure-prone bull market rallies to add excitement. This is what I often call ‘going nowhere in an interesting way.” I

– John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Risk Management is Generous, December 2004

This guy obviously does not understand how investments work. And despite his obvious misstatements (“Buy-and-hold investors don’t get the trough-to-peak return”), he actually makes the case FOR buy-and-hold. What a dunce.

agip wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Happy Anniversary, DGTD. 7 years of this. Wouldn't trade a minute of it. Well maybe a few.

We're up 90% in pure Dow points, plus what? 15-20 percent points worth of dividends. A double despite all the nasty garbage we've had to live through.

How bad will the next crash be?

Consider 2008-2009, the Depression.

And that our economy by all measures is far worse now.

Unemployment, millions of jobs and businesses gone, tens of millions of evictions looming.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

Happy Anniversary, DGTD. 7 years of this. Wouldn't trade a minute of it. Well maybe a few.

We're up 90% in pure Dow points, plus what? 15-20 percent points worth of dividends. A double despite all the nasty garbage we've had to live through.

Not too shabby. Buying every dip has proven to be wildly profitable

Talk to me in a year

Give it up, K5. You were wrong.

Poto wrote:

Give it up, K5. You were wrong.

Not yet.

The Dow will be less than 13k when this is all said and done.

The Unkle wrote:The Dow will be less than 13k when this is all said and done.

I think you're wrong Giles, but would be interested to know how you're organizing your portfolio to allow for that outcome?

The Unkle wrote:

agip wrote:

Happy Anniversary, DGTD. 7 years of this. Wouldn't trade a minute of it. Well maybe a few.

We're up 90% in pure Dow points, plus what? 15-20 percent points worth of dividends. A double despite all the nasty garbage we've had to live through.

How bad will the next crash be?

Consider 2008-2009, the Depression.

And that our economy by all measures is far worse now.

Unemployment, millions of jobs and businesses gone, tens of millions of evictions looming.

Hey, it's K5! You still hanging around after all the embarrassment associated with starting this thread? Way to go!

The Unkle wrote:

Racket wrote:

Not too shabby. Buying every dip has proven to be wildly profitable

Talk to me in a year

We've already given you 7 years. Still not enough?

Here's a prediction for you. Some time in the next few months or years, the market will drop by 25%. When it does, it will still be WAY up since you first predicted its doom on this thread. And you will gloat, "I told you so!" even though, in the big picture, you will continue to be embarrassingly wrong.

The Unkle wrote:

Poto wrote:

Give it up, K5. You were wrong.

Not yet.

The Dow will be less than 13k when this is all said and done.

It's never "all said and done."

But I'm sure you'll still be saying, "just wait for it" as the Dow passes 100k.

Obvi wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Not yet.

The Dow will be less than 13k when this is all said and done.

It's never "all said and done."

But I'm sure you'll still be saying, "just wait for it" as the Dow passes 100k.

Where do you put your money? In the bank? The banking system could collapse, too.

Anything could happen. And I am confident i will react appropriately if and when the time might come.

Reasoning like that keeps me from burying my money in holes in the back yard.

Point being, - assets, whether realized or unrealized, carry liabilities. If you can't live with the threat of those liabilities, it undermines the whole idea of having them in the first place.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

Valuation should be at its highest with all of the money feds pumping. Also, market has been trending up for the past century so not a surprise that market at some point will be at all time high.

Anyways, I definitely am concerned now compared to beginning of April. So, that’s why I went from 130% in equity down to 60/40 equity/bond.

Explain why the Fed pumping money should put the market at highest valuation.

More easy money with low interest rates. Where are we supposed to put the money? Under our mattress?

Anyways, like I've said, I was at 130% equity at beginning of April. Now, I'm at 60% equity, 40% bond. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.

Bummbull wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Explain why the Fed pumping money should put the market at highest valuation.

More easy money with low interest rates. Where are we supposed to put the money? Under our mattress?

Anyways, like I've said, I was at 130% equity at beginning of April. Now, I'm at 60% equity, 40% bond. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.

So, a pig would be a bull, but definitely not a bear. And so could a hog, but just more bullish, Unlike a bear.

And a sheep can be either a bull or a bear.

Okay,

I got that, but what's up with Netflix. Surging 10% on the day.

seattle prattle wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

More easy money with low interest rates. Where are we supposed to put the money? Under our mattress?

Anyways, like I've said, I was at 130% equity at beginning of April. Now, I'm at 60% equity, 40% bond. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.

So, a pig would be a bull, but definitely not a bear. And so could a hog, but just more bullish, Unlike a bear.

And a sheep can be either a bull or a bear.

Okay,

I got that, but what's up with Netflix. Surging 10% on the day.

To borrow from K5/Igy/Unkle ... "Talk to me in a year."

seattle prattle wrote:

Bummbull wrote:

More easy money with low interest rates. Where are we supposed to put the money? Under our mattress?

Anyways, like I've said, I was at 130% equity at beginning of April. Now, I'm at 60% equity, 40% bond. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.

So, a pig would be a bull, but definitely not a bear. And so could a hog, but just more bullish, Unlike a bear.

And a sheep can be either a bull or a bear.

Okay,

I got that, but what's up with Netflix. Surging 10% on the day.

Yea, not really sure of NFLX surge. I've sold some of my shares today. I feel good being totally out of leverage and close to 40% bond holding now. If market keeps going up, great for me. I'll capture the gains. If market goes down, great, I'll sell my bonds and buy equity.

Sally Vix wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

So, a pig would be a bull, but definitely not a bear. And so could a hog, but just more bullish, Unlike a bear.

And a sheep can be either a bull or a bear.

Okay,

I got that, but what's up with Netflix. Surging 10% on the day.

To borrow from K5/Igy/Unkle ... "Talk to me in a year."

hahaha. I feel really good with where I'm at now. Smart or stupid, I had close to 100% of my net worth tied to AMZN shares which I bought in 2014. Actually, more than 100% as I held onto those shares and had some other debt. Then in March, I sold some at its lows, but luckily, it didn't drop as much compared to the rest of the market and purchased bunch of TSLA, and some of NFLX, AAPL, RDFN, and PRPL. At that time, I went on margin and rode it until about beginning of August. But by then, I started to learn more about Asset allocation and now feel good to be totally deleveraged, and my portfolio little more in other stocks besides just AMZN. Although, about 20% of my net worth, I'm still holding AMZN. I'm still tech heavy which is a problem, but atleast I'm holding about 40% bonds now. If tech crumbles, I'll have my bonds to sell to probably just buy VOO or SPY.

Can I ask how old you are?

SeattlePrattle, have you made any adjustments lately? Cant believe my AMZN is above 3400. I just bought some XOM at 40 today- dividend is at 8.5%.

Besides hugely missing out on the 500% increase in the markets since 2008 and the 50% increase in the last 5 months, K5/Unkle/Igy have always been huge advocates of CDs. CDs are about the worst investment ever (besides the Hussman fund) and are even worse when you factor in inflation with the investment.

Question to K5/Igy/Unkle - are you still huge on CDs?

Here are the numbers that matter - the last 30 years of real returns (inflation-adjusted) of CDs versus the S & P...

https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-438020ebd137b884ec76b0eb4ad47cfe.pdf