Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You see nothing. You’re blind, like most investors. Nothing special, a waste of posting.
Go Fats!
Yet my returns over the last decade dwarf yours.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You see nothing. You’re blind, like most investors. Nothing special, a waste of posting.
Go Fats!
Yet my returns over the last decade dwarf yours.
Man... i feel like this market is crazy.
How do Tesla and Apple just keep going up? Like companies that have a market cap in the billions and trillions adding 25-50% cap in weeks and days... wtf lol
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_1 wrote:
Man... i feel like this market is crazy.
How do Tesla and Apple just keep going up? Like companies that have a market cap in the billions and trillions adding 25-50% cap in weeks and days... wtf lol
this was what 1999 felt like...the only way to make money was in .com stocks so everyone piled in.
I'm not saying the parallel is exact...Apple, FB, MSFT and AMZN make tons of money and .coms didn't. But this is not unprecedented market action.
Note that in 2000-2002 when tech stocks cratered, small caps weren't hurt nearly as bad. Same will happen here eventually...the trick will be knowing when to make the switch.
Could be as easy as holding tech until it falls below the 200 day.
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You see nothing. You’re blind, like most investors. Nothing special, a waste of posting.
Go Fats!
Yet my returns over the last decade dwarf yours.
And my net worth has dwarfed yours during the same period. :-)
agip wrote:
this was what 1999 felt like...the only way to make money was in .com stocks so everyone piled in.
I'm not saying the parallel is exact...Apple, FB, MSFT and AMZN make tons of money and .coms didn't. But this is not unprecedented market action.
Note that in 2000-2002 when tech stocks cratered, small caps weren't hurt nearly as bad. Same will happen here eventually...the trick will be knowing when to make the switch.
Could be as easy as holding tech until it falls below the 200 day.
Hmm... I really really messed up this pandemic opportunity, besides buying at BTC low. Was completely in cash at the beginning.
But how does this crazy overvaluing of tech stocks end? Does it just plateau and then people get bored and pull out their earnings?
The hype is so high, everybody knows the Fed will just keep injecting free money... I feel like if they dip -10%, people just buy more.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_1 wrote:
agip wrote:
this was what 1999 felt like...the only way to make money was in .com stocks so everyone piled in.
I'm not saying the parallel is exact...Apple, FB, MSFT and AMZN make tons of money and .coms didn't. But this is not unprecedented market action.
Note that in 2000-2002 when tech stocks cratered, small caps weren't hurt nearly as bad. Same will happen here eventually...the trick will be knowing when to make the switch.
Could be as easy as holding tech until it falls below the 200 day.
Hmm... I really really messed up this pandemic opportunity, besides buying at BTC low. Was completely in cash at the beginning.
But how does this crazy overvaluing of tech stocks end? Does it just plateau and then people get bored and pull out their earnings?
The hype is so high, everybody knows the Fed will just keep injecting free money... I feel like if they dip -10%, people just buy more.
yeah well no one knows, obvi.
And as some dude said, the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. Meaning this could go on for a very long time.
Look up the 200 day moving average risk control method. It's pretty much made for weird times like this.
A couple of things are clear. The Administration is pushing the market higher. Institutions are tagging the same stocks as Robinhood, Portnoy, and all the daily momentum stocks. Institutions are creating narratives and price targets to match the market moves. Even if you believe in a V-shaped recovery, markets have priced in an excessive amount of good news. At the same time on a variety of metrics valuations have never been this extreme. The market moves up for seemingly inconsequential news, therefore a drop likely comes the same way.
Interesting AAPL up to $513 pre-market, now at $496. NASDAQ up 1.3% thirty minutes ago, now negative. Bizarre price action on many levels.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Yet my returns over the last decade dwarf yours.
And my net worth has dwarfed yours during the same period. :-)
Not likely given your debt load.
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
And my net worth has dwarfed yours during the same period. :-)
Not likely given your debt load.
Igy - do you mean the increase in your net worth has dwarfed his in the same period?
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course that is not true. Buying NASDAQ will burn investors. Just like those that thought Small Caps were a free ride.
Based on what thesis? Quite frankly, I don't think you're going to get the financial crisis you're hoping for. There are a lot of businesses hiring right now and there are quite few that are extremely well capitalized despite your beliefs that seem to stem only from headline news from one of the most questionable sources in investing media (which is already 99% horsesh!t) and insistence that a big non-GAAP conspiracy has brewed for a decade.
It's funny you pick on the NASDAQ though. Let's take a look at the biggest hitters shall we?
Apple : more cash on hand than God, paying employees through all this.
Facebook : just gave everyone $1000 bonuses and everyone can work from home.
Microsoft : more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Amazon : hiring 100k workers and will probably hit record revenues on Marketplace and AWS right now.
Google: more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Just because you don't like how much debt Netflix has gone into doesn't mean the whole economy is fvcked. I just saw in WSJ that Wal-mart is hiring 150k jobs and doling out $550 million in bonuses to hourly workers. Yeah, airlines are screwed and we'll have to bail them out and the auto-market is probably going to get shook, but the Fed just went way out of it's way to help redeem assets held by huge institutions so they can be liquid enough to provide credit to large businesses that can in turn pay employees down the line for a month or two. In fact, all the big banks just suspended stock buybacks through Q2 so that they could provide liquidity to said businesses. On top of all that, the Fed is buying back massive amounts of bonds and the US Treasury is about to inject over a trillion dollars into the economy.
Your cynicism has been amusing, and I'm sure you'll take victory laps over "predicting" a literally unprecedented global shock event, but at the end of this you're going to be just as grumpy as you and all your ZeroHedge friends were in 2009 because even though stocks fell hard, they didn't fall hard enough to whatever esoteric and arbitrary "vaLuE" you wanted them to.
Hope your running and all that is going well. USA ftw, just give it a couple of months
March 19th, from yours truly.
It's not easy being right all the time. Actually, yes it is. It comes naturally to me so I don't even have to think about it.
Sally Vix wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Not likely given your debt load.
Igy - do you mean the increase in your net worth has dwarfed his in the same period?
The Fed says debt is good. Isn’t that why the market is going up?
?
Racket wrote:
Racket wrote:
Based on what thesis? Quite frankly, I don't think you're going to get the financial crisis you're hoping for. There are a lot of businesses hiring right now and there are quite few that are extremely well capitalized despite your beliefs that seem to stem only from headline news from one of the most questionable sources in investing media (which is already 99% horsesh!t) and insistence that a big non-GAAP conspiracy has brewed for a decade.
It's funny you pick on the NASDAQ though. Let's take a look at the biggest hitters shall we?
Apple : more cash on hand than God, paying employees through all this.
Facebook : just gave everyone $1000 bonuses and everyone can work from home.
Microsoft : more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Amazon : hiring 100k workers and will probably hit record revenues on Marketplace and AWS right now.
Google: more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Just because you don't like how much debt Netflix has gone into doesn't mean the whole economy is fvcked. I just saw in WSJ that Wal-mart is hiring 150k jobs and doling out $550 million in bonuses to hourly workers. Yeah, airlines are screwed and we'll have to bail them out and the auto-market is probably going to get shook, but the Fed just went way out of it's way to help redeem assets held by huge institutions so they can be liquid enough to provide credit to large businesses that can in turn pay employees down the line for a month or two. In fact, all the big banks just suspended stock buybacks through Q2 so that they could provide liquidity to said businesses. On top of all that, the Fed is buying back massive amounts of bonds and the US Treasury is about to inject over a trillion dollars into the economy.
Your cynicism has been amusing, and I'm sure you'll take victory laps over "predicting" a literally unprecedented global shock event, but at the end of this you're going to be just as grumpy as you and all your ZeroHedge friends were in 2009 because even though stocks fell hard, they didn't fall hard enough to whatever esoteric and arbitrary "vaLuE" you wanted them to.
Hope your running and all that is going well. USA ftw, just give it a couple of months
March 19th, from yours truly.
It's not easy being right all the time. Actually, yes it is. It comes naturally to me so I don't even have to think about it.
Just goes to show you what $Trillions can do.
You and Portnoy for the win.
The house with four car garage filled with toys by year end.
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
And my net worth has dwarfed yours during the same period. :-)
Not likely given your debt load.
The only thing going up faster than the NASDAQ is the value of my home. The debt is like buying on margin, and even better when you can write it off.
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Not likely given your debt load.
The only thing going up faster than the NASDAQ is the value of my home. The debt is like buying on margin, and even better when you can write it off.
?
The Nasdaq has gone up an average annual increase of 44% (ANNUALLY) in the last 10 years. Do you have any idea how much your house would be worth today (let's say it was worth $1 million in 2009) at that same rate???
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Not likely given your debt load.
The only thing going up faster than the NASDAQ is the value of my home. The debt is like buying on margin, and even better when you can write it off.
?
My home’s value is also increasing tremendously and I am not paying a mortgage. Unlike you, I own my home.
P.S. You can’t write off the debt. Those interests payments are coming off your bottom line.
Racket wrote:
Racket wrote:
Based on what thesis? Quite frankly, I don't think you're going to get the financial crisis you're hoping for. There are a lot of businesses hiring right now and there are quite few that are extremely well capitalized despite your beliefs that seem to stem only from headline news from one of the most questionable sources in investing media (which is already 99% horsesh!t) and insistence that a big non-GAAP conspiracy has brewed for a decade.
It's funny you pick on the NASDAQ though. Let's take a look at the biggest hitters shall we?
Apple : more cash on hand than God, paying employees through all this.
Facebook : just gave everyone $1000 bonuses and everyone can work from home.
Microsoft : more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Amazon : hiring 100k workers and will probably hit record revenues on Marketplace and AWS right now.
Google: more cash on hand than God and everyone can work from home.
Just because you don't like how much debt Netflix has gone into doesn't mean the whole economy is fvcked. I just saw in WSJ that Wal-mart is hiring 150k jobs and doling out $550 million in bonuses to hourly workers. Yeah, airlines are screwed and we'll have to bail them out and the auto-market is probably going to get shook, but the Fed just went way out of it's way to help redeem assets held by huge institutions so they can be liquid enough to provide credit to large businesses that can in turn pay employees down the line for a month or two. In fact, all the big banks just suspended stock buybacks through Q2 so that they could provide liquidity to said businesses. On top of all that, the Fed is buying back massive amounts of bonds and the US Treasury is about to inject over a trillion dollars into the economy.
Your cynicism has been amusing, and I'm sure you'll take victory laps over "predicting" a literally unprecedented global shock event, but at the end of this you're going to be just as grumpy as you and all your ZeroHedge friends were in 2009 because even though stocks fell hard, they didn't fall hard enough to whatever esoteric and arbitrary "vaLuE" you wanted them to.
Hope your running and all that is going well. USA ftw, just give it a couple of months
March 19th, from yours truly.
It's not easy being right all the time. Actually, yes it is. It comes naturally to me so I don't even have to think about it.
A simple formula for being often right on this thread is to just say the opposite of what Igy says. But I see you’ve already learned that.
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The only thing going up faster than the NASDAQ is the value of my home. The debt is like buying on margin, and even better when you can write it off.
?
The Nasdaq has gone up an average annual increase of 44% (ANNUALLY) in the last 10 years. Do you have any idea how much your house would be worth today (let's say it was worth $1 million in 2009) at that same rate???
Do you realize from the March 2000 high the NASDAQ Composite did not reach a new durable high until August of 2016? Do you realize that at the March 2020 low the 20 year annualized return on the NASDAQ Composite was 0.014%. I suppose you are enamored by the easy money since then that takes TSLA from $200 to $2,000 in a year, or AAPL from $200 to $500 in the same time.
True my house is not keeping up with the NASDAQ lately, but up about 80% from where I bought it in 2013. The marvels of Fed policies. I do think my house will hold on to a good portion of the gains while I believe the NASDAQ Composite will underperform all major indices, and equities will bottom about 70% lower than today.
So drink at the punch bowl, enjoy the party into the wee hours of the morning. I wouldn’t kid myself that there is an elixir for the major hangover to come.
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The only thing going up faster than the NASDAQ is the value of my home. The debt is like buying on margin, and even better when you can write it off.
?
My home’s value is also increasing tremendously and I am not paying a mortgage. Unlike you, I own my home.
P.S. You can’t write off the debt. Those interests payments are coming off your bottom line.
That’s great, congratulations. I can tell you are a very wise troll. Demented, and obsessed, but wise.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I wouldn’t kid myself that there is an elixir for the major hangover to come.
After a couple of years, it's nice to see some things never change.