Racket wrote:
Punter wrote:
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
Or at least quote the interesting part of it that's relevant to whatever point you're trying to make.
It’s right in front of your eyes.
Punter wrote:
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
“behind the facade of ratios and metrics, investing is about storytelling. The main narrative right now is one that has turned out to be the tallest of tall tales in the past. The story is that cheap money justifies the market's high valuations, so we need not worry that the S&P 500 hasn't been so expensive since the dot-com bubble, or that the five biggest U.S.”
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1287785792895627277?cxt=HHwWmsC1xeGWkd8jAAAA
If that was all we knew (DJIA virtually unchanged over the past 2 years), we would be expecting better than average gains over coming months and years as the markets revert to the mean trend.
Looking at S&P500 since 1928, the average 2-yr change (for all trading days) is 12.2%. If I look at only days where the change over the previous 2-yr period was between 0-10% (roughly bracketing the observed + 4.5% for DJIA over the past two years), we get an average forward 2-yr change of +19.1%, or about 7% better than average.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Punter wrote:
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
“behind the facade of ratios and metrics, investing is about storytelling. The main narrative right now is one that has turned out to be the tallest of tall tales in the past. The story is that cheap money justifies the market's high valuations, so we need not worry that the S&P 500 hasn't been so expensive since the dot-com bubble, or that the five biggest U.S.”
why is 'well the market is only up because of the Fed' the constant excuse bears make? For 20 years I've heard this.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“behind the facade of ratios and metrics, investing is about storytelling. The main narrative right now is one that has turned out to be the tallest of tall tales in the past. The story is that cheap money justifies the market's high valuations, so we need not worry that the S&P 500 hasn't been so expensive since the dot-com bubble, or that the five biggest U.S.”
why is 'well the market is only up because of the Fed' the constant excuse bears make? For 20 years I've heard this.
Because they were on the verge of launching the biggest "I Told You So" known to man in 2008 but then the Fed stepped in to prevent the collapse of the US economy and robbed our dear friends who spend way too much time at Zerohedge the chance to do so. The Federal Reserve has been the enemy ever since
Bears take their profits in the form of smugness and and pseudo-intellectual finger pointing, not in actual dollars.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Or at least quote the interesting part of it that's relevant to whatever point you're trying to make.
It’s right in front of your eyes.
wAkE uP sHeEpLe
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“behind the facade of ratios and metrics, investing is about storytelling. The main narrative right now is one that has turned out to be the tallest of tall tales in the past. The story is that cheap money justifies the market's high valuations, so we need not worry that the S&P 500 hasn't been so expensive since the dot-com bubble, or that the five biggest U.S.”
why is 'well the market is only up because of the Fed' the constant excuse bears make? For 20 years I've heard this.
You certainly had a less cocky attitude on March 23rd. Remember? Oh, that’s right, $Trillions made it all better. :-)
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
why is 'well the market is only up because of the Fed' the constant excuse bears make? For 20 years I've heard this.
Because they were on the verge of launching the biggest "I Told You So" known to man in 2008 but then the Fed stepped in to prevent the collapse of the US economy and robbed our dear friends who spend way too much time at Zerohedge the chance to do so. The Federal Reserve has been the enemy ever since
Bears take their profits in the form of smugness and and pseudo-intellectual finger pointing, not in actual dollars.
See the above. Has MSFT been your housing savior yet?
Because it has been true for 20 years.
But the point is to not be an idiot like the ZH crowd. The fact of the last 20 years has been very bullish if you know how to play it—same as now. I lament that everything sucks now, but for me that’s bullish because it turns out that I know how to trade it successfully, and the fact that I was optimistic that I could is what made me a bull, not a bear.
Now things might be turning. While the ZH crowd is now ascending with their gold, guns, xenophobia, etc and are hence bullish as their own prospects, I am now less so. The Fed pumping is having less effect, and to their “credit” they are doing less of it, at least for now.
I am still awaiting some cogent investment ideas from anyone, for the next 1-2 years. Ideas at will beat, not just follow the indexes.
Meanwhile I lament the fact that Racket has likely had to put his travel plans on hold. There are ways into Europe if you still really want to go, btw.
Maserati wrote:There are ways into Europe if you still really want to go, btw.
I'm not sure how easy it is to get into Europe from North America (pretty sure in most cases you need to quarantine for 2 weeks unless you've got some kind of diplomatic loophole), but travel within Europe is possible. We've been to Italy and France in recent weeks, and plan to travel to a couple of Nordic countries soon. With luck, our home country and planned destinations will not clamp down on entries or exists during our trip, else we may be holed up somewhere cold through the winter... :-)
Maserati wrote:
Because it has been true for 20 years.
But the point is to not be an idiot like the ZH crowd. The fact of the last 20 years has been very bullish if you know how to play it—same as now. I lament that everything sucks now, but for me that’s bullish because it turns out that I know how to trade it successfully, and the fact that I was optimistic that I could is what made me a bull, not a bear.
Now things might be turning. While the ZH crowd is now ascending with their gold, guns, xenophobia, etc and are hence bullish as their own prospects, I am now less so. The Fed pumping is having less effect, and to their “credit” they are doing less of it, at least for now.
I am still awaiting some cogent investment ideas from anyone, for the next 1-2 years. Ideas at will beat, not just follow the indexes.
Meanwhile I lament the fact that Racket has likely had to put his travel plans on hold. There are ways into Europe if you still really want to go, btw.
Gotta wait till next summer now. Apparently the Rhineland has more Michelin star restaurants than any other place in the world. Hopefully they don't all go out of business!
I'm sure I don't know squat about this but it seems to me that things in our economy are not all that rosy given the pandemic and the market should reflect that but it's not... my guess is that's because we just printed a bunch of money and the only place it can be put currently is in the stock market hence it's inflation.
To me the market is just one big ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme. Just keep people throwing money into it and it will keep going up. There is nothing wrong with that until the trend starts going the other way which never seems to happen for very long so keep on investing in the market, I guess?
Racket wrote:Apparently the Rhineland has more Michelin star restaurants than any other place in the world. Hopefully they don't all go out of business!
I live in a small town (not in the Rhineland) and there are three Michelin star restaurants in walking distance, one I just saw for the first time yesterday (looks to have made the list just this year).
There is at least one Schengen country into which US citizens and LPR’s can get without quarantine if they have two negative tests 48 hrs apart within the five days prior to entry. And yes there are also national interest exemptions.
Maserati wrote:There is at least one Schengen country into which US citizens and LPR’s can get without quarantine if they have two negative tests 48 hrs apart within the five days prior to entry.
I suspect they'd be stuck in that country though (which is it?). When we visited Italy (by air) and returned home, in both cases we would have been quarantined if we had travelled to/from countries outside the Schengen. I could be wrong; I'm not expert on travel restrictions, just relaying what I believe to be true from recent experience and my own investigations to support vacation planning...
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Punter wrote:
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
“behind the facade of ratios and metrics, investing is about storytelling. The main narrative right now is one that has turned out to be the tallest of tall tales in the past. The story is that cheap money justifies the market's high valuations, so we need not worry that the S&P 500 hasn't been so expensive since the dot-com bubble, or that the five biggest U.S.”
And?
One is Hungary, where if you don’t have prior negative results, you can get out of quarantine with a negative result there. They are specific on the tests accepted, results must be in Hungarian or English.
From there much of Schengen is restriction-free, including apparently France—where, by the way, there are now exemptions for students, and for those with an established French residence.
Belgium is afu again, right? The fluidity of the situation is what has prevented me from going, so far.
15_50 wrote:
I'm sure I don't know squat about this but it seems to me that things in our economy are not all that rosy given the pandemic and the market should reflect that but it's not... my guess is that's because we just printed a bunch of money and the only place it can be put currently is in the stock market hence it's inflation.
To me the market is just one big ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme. Just keep people throwing money into it and it will keep going up. There is nothing wrong with that until the trend starts going the other way which never seems to happen for very long so keep on investing in the market, I guess?
For the longest time, while the markets were grinding upward, I kept saying that new money was coming in because there was nowhere else to go that even beat inflation. The key to keeping afloat is timing, and the key to beating is lack of diversification.
It’s a strange year. Those I know with normal diversification are barely treading water this year, some not even. But of course the year is only 7 months old, there’s still a lot of time remaining.
If you plan on living out your days in the US, the markets are still probably a pretty good place to be, along with some RE.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Has MSFT been your housing savior yet?
Mine is up 27% since March. Thanks, Igy!