agip wrote:
plus, of course. parents need to get away from their kids and going to work is how they do that.
I read that article. My reaction is "meh." Some companies like Twitter and Facebook will probably make it work long term but obviously it's less sustainable for other businesses. I think everyone sort of knew that in the beginning and claims of a paradigm shift of that order were overblown.
People are getting out of the cities though.
Maserati wrote:...Van RE is down again, it varies with changes in HK’s situation, I wonder what Idiot thinks, although he has already bought in.
Vancouver RE isn't down if you believe the MLS House Price Index:
https://housepriceindex.ca/#chart_compare=c11,bc_vancouver,ab_calgary,on_ottawa,on_toronto,qc_montrealProbably high-end properties have been affected; thankfully we don't have enough money to worry about such problems... :-)
We own places in two of the markets showing in that plot; Vancouver area and one other. I'll admit to having been quite worried about their value through the covid crisis, but so far (fingers crossed), our RE holdings have done better than our stock / ETF holdings. My own best investment remains that in the company I work for; lucky that I stumbled into that...
Gold.
The economy is tanking.
Run to gold
I get my Van RE info from a major investor. He has only mid to high priced properties, it is true. And as I said, it varies, and could easily recover as it has done before—but it is not a place I would put money atm.
stocks up, VIX up, gold up, bonds up, it's a party man!
agip wrote:
stocks up, VIX up, gold up, bonds up, it's a party man!
Just another day in 2020! Based on the chatter I've seen around gold and silver I'd say there's a good chance we'll see a massacre sometime soon. A lot of people are pushing pump and dump schemes for like junior miners and sh!t like that
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
stocks up, VIX up, gold up, bonds up, it's a party man!
Just another day in 2020! Based on the chatter I've seen around gold and silver I'd say there's a good chance we'll see a massacre sometime soon. A lot of people are pushing pump and dump schemes for like junior miners and sh!t like that
re; gold...I dunno. My anecdotal sense is that the general public is just getting interested in gold now. With the trillions on the sidelines plus zero percent interest from cash and bonds plus instability all over the planet plus a falling dollar, seems like the public could really drive gold price up.
Have to say, gold is one of the only trend changing trades I've managed well, ever. I have c. 50% total returns on my 7% gold position. Although I didn't buy it all at once.
I believe Racket to be incorrect, although it is true that the paper market can be easily pushed or pulled. Institutional money is only now just starting to take notice. And it’s not about gold, it’s about the USD. Buy gold to hold it, including stocks. It doesn’t matter what happens in Nov.
And yes people have been burned in the past on junior miners, but this is different—there is now nowhere better to run with your gains.
I am almost sure there will be a retracement, but it doesn’t matter. It is much bigger than a trading phenomenon. Same with that other stuff I always mention—real limited property, real art/antiquities, real productive land, real water and timber resources (but less so).
Yes my AMZN is ip today, because small retailers are decimated, in every retail sector. Even larger ones are filing bankruptcy in droves. I said all of these things would happen, and they are—because people don’t understand economics anymore. You have to put in productive work to add value, not just add zeroes. In the adding zeroes game the honest little guy will never get anywhere, because it’s all about who can have the most zeroes added—and that is a political process, not a business process.
Nothing is good right now except select agricultural yields, which are off the charts. Some of the last remaining small lending I did is now paying off very well, it looks like an epic season.
Maserati wrote:
And yes people have been burned in the past on junior miners, but this is different—there is now nowhere better to run with your gains.
I am almost sure there will be a retracement, but it doesn’t matter. It is much bigger than a trading phenomenon. Same with that other stuff I always mention—real limited property, real art/antiquities, real productive land, real water and timber resources (but less so).
Yes my AMZN is ip today, because small retailers are decimated, in every retail sector. Even larger ones are filing bankruptcy in droves. I said all of these things would happen, and they are—because people don’t understand economics anymore. You have to put in productive work to add value, not just add zeroes. In the adding zeroes game the honest little guy will never get anywhere, because it’s all about who can have the most zeroes added—and that is a political process, not a business process.
Nothing is good right now except select agricultural yields, which are off the charts. Some of the last remaining small lending I did is now paying off very well, it looks like an epic season.
What do you mean "you have to put in productive work to add value." That sounds suspiciously like labor theory of value which is Marxism.
As for gold, I think it's 75% legit and 25% bullsh!t, so there's room for a 25% correction. Miners used to diversify until that got unprofitable so know they're all exposed almost 100% to gold. On top of that, you're basically taking some mine boss (probably a mafia guy too tbh) on their inventory and carry rate. It's got way too much bitcoin type hype around it.
Yes, there is all that—and yet you still give it only 25% bs.
I would point out that mafia mine bosses are no different than similarly-situated people in other industries. BS is everywhere.
Funds spread risk across different metrics.
What drops the funds is re-balancings and profit-taking. Rebalancings ok, but taking profit to where?
As I said, I have no idea. If you have any good insights and recos into a year or two from now, I’m all ears. In the past few years I gave you guys these recos: US megacaps, US tech megacaps, currency diversification, Tesla, SELL, and gold—and all at precisely the right times. I have put money where my mouth is and outperformed vastly over the few years during which I have made the recos.
Now it’s your turn, because I know enough to know that I know when I have nothing other than the few expensive and esoteric things I mentioned recently.
Waiting for specifics. Seriously. I have heard much, but it’s all carnival barkers. What, and why, for the next year or two, for someone with int’l interests and US- and euro-denominated assets?
What I mean is that adding zeroes is not only inflation, but an easy means to redistribution. It does not build wealth.
Price is not utility. Price is always relative. Yes I know the labor theory of value, but it’s more than that. It is vastly easier for humanity to destroy than it is to create. To overcome that giant asymmetry requires a lot of work—productive work. Our wealth lies not only in material goods, but in systems and institutions, including cultures—cultures of belief, society, and of work itself.
Molly-coddled westerners often no longer understand that. I LMAO whenever I hear some idiot going off about the evils of capitalism, until I ask them to define it. I also LMAO when i hear that capitalism is “white”, when the most basic and rapacious capitalism is all in non-white places. White places have moved on to corporatism, crony capitalism, monetarism, fascism—all to their detriment. This is why hope lies currently in EM’s and developing markets, but even there it is a question of scale.
Many have no idea what it means to do valuable, productive work. They think that anything they do should be rewarded, and make the second mistake of believing that their reward has net positive value. As the number on their individual paycheck rises, each dollar has less buying power—and what there is to buy is increasingly carp...and I’m not talking about just private sector goods and services, I’m talking about especially gov-offered services of all kinds, about gov-sponsored organs of civil society, and about public infrastructure itself.
People don’t get it because they’re too stupid, plain and simple. They are stupid because everything was great until a while ago, like maybe the year 2000, and they have never had to be smart. Now they don’t know how, and make the further mistake that doubling-down on stupid is smart.
This mentality drives almost everything in the US except for actual private-sector small business—which is in the process of being eradicated. It’s a dead-end. Even if you are one of those—like me—to end up with more zeroes, they become increasingly meaningless in this society. And now that you get less for converting those zeroes to things in other societies, said zeroes become not worth the heartache.
Breaking up with someone you used to love, but who is deteriorating and who is mo longer the same person, can be difficult. It is easier once they become actually hostile or dangerous to you. Don’t have battered-wife syndrome—get out, like I have been doing, or suffer the consequences. The good news is that the US actually produces some satisfactory wine now, and there is no need to buy increasingly-expensive French imports, for general purposes.
Unpasteurized milk cheese, that’s another story?
Maserati wrote:
Yes, there is all that—and yet you still give it only 25% bs.
I would point out that mafia mine bosses are no different than similarly-situated people in other industries. BS is everywhere.
Funds spread risk across different metrics.
What drops the funds is re-balancings and profit-taking. Rebalancings ok, but taking profit to where?
As I said, I have no idea. If you have any good insights and recos into a year or two from now, I’m all ears. In the past few years I gave you guys these recos: US megacaps, US tech megacaps, currency diversification, Tesla, SELL, and gold—and all at precisely the right times. I have put money where my mouth is and outperformed vastly over the few years during which I have made the recos.
Now it’s your turn, because I know enough to know that I know when I have nothing other than the few expensive and esoteric things I mentioned recently.
Waiting for specifics. Seriously. I have heard much, but it’s all carnival barkers. What, and why, for the next year or two, for someone with int’l interests and US- and euro-denominated assets?
I have no idea. I'd like to think some US manufacturing diamond in the rough might be a good play because it seems like we're headed to a sort of "Heartland Revival" mentality and maybe a Cold War-lite with China. I did just take a really small profit on wheat futures but barely. I thought they'd do better considering the Biblical plague of locusts in Africa and a pandemic that I hoped would fuel fires for more food.
“Hey Igy I did seriously consider gunning up and moving to Idaho.”
Maserati,
I’m not in the survivalist camp. Some areas of Idaho are quite liberal, and generally more diverse than what is portrayed. There will be no defund the police, which is fine with me. I just got back from a backpacking trip with my son. Sawtooth Wilderness for three days, just to the north of Sun Valley. On the drive thru my son thought we would see some BLM in the liberal bastion, but no luck.
Igy
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
Punter wrote:
If you really want us to read articles such as this, you should not provide a link to something behind a paywall.
Or at least quote the interesting part of it that's relevant to whatever point you're trying to make.
Maserati wrote:
What I mean is that adding zeroes is not only inflation, but an easy means to redistribution. It does not build wealth.
Price is not utility. Price is always relative. Yes I know the labor theory of value, but it’s more than that. It is vastly easier for humanity to destroy than it is to create. To overcome that giant asymmetry requires a lot of work—productive work. Our wealth lies not only in material goods, but in systems and institutions, including cultures—cultures of belief, society, and of work itself.
Molly-coddled westerners often no longer understand that. I LMAO whenever I hear some idiot going off about the evils of capitalism, until I ask them to define it. I also LMAO when i hear that capitalism is “white”, when the most basic and rapacious capitalism is all in non-white places. White places have moved on to corporatism, crony capitalism, monetarism, fascism—all to their detriment. This is why hope lies currently in EM’s and developing markets, but even there it is a question of scale.
Many have no idea what it means to do valuable, productive work. They think that anything they do should be rewarded, and make the second mistake of believing that their reward has net positive value. As the number on their individual paycheck rises, each dollar has less buying power—and what there is to buy is increasingly carp...and I’m not talking about just private sector goods and services, I’m talking about especially gov-offered services of all kinds, about gov-sponsored organs of civil society, and about public infrastructure itself.
People don’t get it because they’re too stupid, plain and simple. They are stupid because everything was great until a while ago, like maybe the year 2000, and they have never had to be smart. Now they don’t know how, and make the further mistake that doubling-down on stupid is smart.
This mentality drives almost everything in the US except for actual private-sector small business—which is in the process of being eradicated. It’s a dead-end. Even if you are one of those—like me—to end up with more zeroes, they become increasingly meaningless in this society. And now that you get less for converting those zeroes to things in other societies, said zeroes become not worth the heartache.
Breaking up with someone you used to love, but who is deteriorating and who is mo longer the same person, can be difficult. It is easier once they become actually hostile or dangerous to you. Don’t have battered-wife syndrome—get out, like I have been doing, or suffer the consequences. The good news is that the US actually produces some satisfactory wine now, and there is no need to buy increasingly-expensive French imports, for general purposes.
Unpasteurized milk cheese, that’s another story?
Honestly I don't even know where to start with this but it sounds like maybe you'd be happier if you gave all your money away and joined a monastery?