Down goes the Dow

Listen, everyone, we need to give Igy a break. I asked you all to do this yesterday, but apparently you feel the need to point out every mistake that Igy makes. Have you never been wrong before? Poor Igy has been lambasted for two days in a row. Let’s cut him some slack and just ignore his mistakes instead of making each one a federal case.

#maga2020 wrote:

Listen, everyone, we need to give Igy a break. I asked you all to do this yesterday, but apparently you feel the need to point out every mistake that Igy makes. Have you never been wrong before? Poor Igy has been lambasted for two days in a row. Let’s cut him some slack and just ignore his mistakes instead of making each one a federal case.

So says the guy that still can’t get the soil out of his undies. The last two days sell off brought back bad memories for him, and the rest of of the Bullish muppets.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

#maga2020 wrote:

Listen, everyone, we need to give Igy a break. I asked you all to do this yesterday, but apparently you feel the need to point out every mistake that Igy makes. Have you never been wrong before? Poor Igy has been lambasted for two days in a row. Let’s cut him some slack and just ignore his mistakes instead of making each one a federal case.

So says the guy that still can’t get the soil out of his undies. The last two days sell off brought back bad memories for him, and the rest of of the Bullish muppets.

Wait, what?

Your soiled shorts, the one you crapped all over on March 23rd. I know you haven't forgotten.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Your soiled shorts, the one you crapped all over on March 23rd. I know you haven't forgotten.

I’m a runner. I go commando.

Igy and I have basically the same view on things, we just use different approaches. I don’t touch bonds or REiTs, and Igy doesn’t seem to diversify out of US-situs assets. Igy carries some debt while I do not. Igy does not seem to be in alternative asset classes like art and metals, as am I. Igy still seems to believe that business fundamentals drive the markets, I do not.

I have long opined on here that business hasn’t mattered in a while, that numbers were politically fake, and that asset prices were abstracted. Essentially, that we entered a command-and-control economy several tears ago.

During my absence you have witnessed more manifestations of that situation. The whole thing is a sham in the US. People no longer understand basic economic concepts like work and value, and they behave accordingly. We have been living on borrowed time because the USD remains the reserve, and because the US military is used by certain oil concerns as its own private security force.

I have beat the markets every year, and as things get “worse”, my outperformance grows, and I have had to divest myself of nothing that I like—not RE, not art, no holdings at all. I am just playing the downfall, laughing and sobbing at the ignorance of the masses, and the “investor class”.

I am a guy who really enjoys the best of what society has to offer, and I weep as I see it systematically eroded and dismantled in the US and elsewhere like Canada and England.

Big problems lie ahead, especially in credit and banking. The report cited by Igy doesn’t surprise me, but neither does it indicate anlack of ability to service that credit. People are just not paying, and stuffing the money in their pockets instead, because they think it won’t matter.

And they are probably right. For a long time now it has been much better to have been a borrower than a lender.

As DXY continues to fall, I am rotating the last available bunch into other currencies, but still leaving some USD exposure.

This year has been outrageous. I even loaded up on more gdx and gdxj when they dropped 3%. I hope to hold them for a long time, but of course would sell in a heartbeat.

[quote]Maserati wrote:

“Igy and I have basically the same view on things, we just use different approaches. I don’t touch bonds or REiTs, and Igy doesn’t seem to diversify out of US-situs assets. Igy carries some debt while I do not. Igy does not seem to be in alternative asset classes like art and metals, as am I. Igy still seems to believe that business fundamentals drive the markets, I do not.“

Massrati,

I do have art, precious metals covered, as well as real estate. You are correct on my international exposure. Primary reason over the short term I am out of international equities is the one to one correlation with the U.S. stocks in a severe market decline. At some point I will shift funds to emerging market, international stocks and debt. I will remain underweight U.S. stocks for the next couple of years.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

So says the guy that still can’t get the soil out of his undies. The last two days sell off brought back bad memories for him, and the rest of of the Bullish muppets.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Your soiled shorts, the one you crapped all over on March 23rd. I know you haven't forgotten.

What’s up with your infatuation with this guy’s underwear?

just to pass on some information, my office landlord reached out to me to offer me a 28% discount on my office rent. I think that's happening pretty much everywhere - retail etc.

You'd think that REIT stock prices would already include this, but maybe not. This is all new.

as for my positioning...

I'm at

60% stocks

25% bonds

7% gold

7% cash.

Nothing unusual about the allocations inside each of those categories - pretty much reflecting whatever the indices have. Probably a bit tech heavy. US overweight too.

US stocks are at about 6% over their 200 day moving average. I'll probably go to 50% stocks should we go below the 200 day. I'm a bit of a weak hand here...will likely be one of the people selling in the next 5% downturn. Probably I should sell here instead of later but I'm usually wrong on market timing so I'm hanging in there.

I'm having a legit bad year - one of the first ever where I am materially below the indices.

I'm down around 3% for the year, while stocks are down 2% (globally). That doesn't sound so bad but the painful comparison is the Vanguard 60/40 index fund. That one is +4% for the year, way better than me. I really shouldn't trail that one by much.

I sold stocks in the spring and missed out on the massive rally in long term bonds.

The relief is that my clients are doing much, much better than I am. Because I didn't panic sell their accounts, but I did panic sell my own money in late march and early april. They're doing about what the VG balanced index shows.

I'd be happy to keep up with inflation for the next 5 years...I'm much more worried about keeping my money intact than making much money. That's what makes me a weak hand, too easy to hit the sell button.

Sucks to hear that agip, but remember, the year is long. Anything can happen.

I thought you were nailing it before I left the thread for a while, what happened? Weren’t you buying on the cheap? Maybe my memory is faulty.

Good break on the rent. Before the shtf I closed a rented office and moved into one I own, it has been a nice simplifying move. We still have one rental space, no break offered on rent—but it is month-to-month so I prefer the flexibility that affords. It is a space we rent by choice, not necessity.

I always try to look ahead, and find the next good asset class. At this time, I see precious metals, currency diversification by way of high-end waterfront RE in europe, and possibly food production in Mexico/central America, Morocco and N Africa. In terms of equities all I have is AMZN, and tbh, I have no ideas at this time of what else I would get, and why.

Yes the big techs etc are propped up, but things are too unstable. Business practices, as historically understood, are irrelevant. I am sitting out the transition periods in both business practices, and in market management. Things have jumped the shark, no telling what will outperform in equities.

Talk about wealth preservation, I have received huge cash offers on some antiquities I own, but I haven’t sold because I am in the same position. People are still paying good money for things they want to have, and want to enjoy having—and that doesn’t include equities, in particular.

Bonds and bond-holders will get slaughtered. TIPS will underperform in my world, because they use the inflation number that isn’t relevant to my life. Oil is sketchy because of evolving political situations and related supply phenomena—it could go either way.

I wouldn’t touch REITs at the moment, and am glad I didn’t buy into the Canadian one that was on offer, even though the portfolio looked ok at the time. Van RE is down again, it varies with changes in HK’s situation, I wonder what Idiot thinks, although he has already bought in. Farmland in the US is still a bit interesting, just not commodity crops. Maybe some Singaporean banking and intermediaries.

It’s turmoil, and best to keep my head down, YMMV. This is my best year ever, in a general sense, and I don’t see anything changing. I will not even play the election, unless things change. Even though I have prepared well and it’s panning out, I am scared shtless. It is not the kind of thing one wants to be right about.

Hey Igy I did seriously consider gunning up and moving to Idaho. I’m not 100% sure we will leave the US, and it remains a longshot option. Looking at more property in the Alps and on the Med, Greece even being interesting as a place to reside and hold some assets.

agip wrote:

just to pass on some information, my office landlord reached out to me to offer me a 28% discount on my office rent. I think that's happening pretty much everywhere - retail etc.

You'd think that REIT stock prices would already include this, but maybe not. This is all new.

REIT Tier 1 holdings might drop as people gtfo of the cities and realize the suburbs are a lot nicer.

Other than that, this is part of an interesting thing happening in white collar jobs where a lot of well off people are getting breaks they don't really need. My parents took the mortgage deferral on their house despite being very well off. And why not? Three months of no mortgage payment sounds pretty good

Well according to Mas the dollar index is gonna get massacred. Weak dollar is bullish for stocks so hang in there!

Maserati wrote:

I will not even play the election, unless things change. Even though I have prepared well and it’s panning out, I am scared shtless. It is not the kind of thing one wants to be right about.

Scared money don't make money, Mas. This is a casino now and the lunatics run the crazy house where there's no shortage of liquidity thanks to our patron saint Jerome Powell. Pull a chair up to the table and throw the dice

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

just to pass on some information, my office landlord reached out to me to offer me a 28% discount on my office rent. I think that's happening pretty much everywhere - retail etc.

You'd think that REIT stock prices would already include this, but maybe not. This is all new.

REIT Tier 1 holdings might drop as people gtfo of the cities and realize the suburbs are a lot nicer.

the reaction against work from home is already starting:

Four months ago, employees at many U.S. companies went home and did something incredible: They got their work done, seemingly without missing a beat. Executives were amazed at how well their workers performed remotely, even while juggling child care and the distractions of home. Twitter Inc. TWTR -2.34% and Facebook Inc., among others, quickly said they would embrace remote work long term. Some companies even vowed to give up their physical office spaces entirely.

Now, as the work-from-home experiment stretches on, some cracks are starting to emerge. Projects take longer. Training is tougher. Hiring and integrating new employees, more complicated. Some employers say their workers appear less connected and bosses fear that younger professionals aren’t developing at the same rate as they would in offices, sitting next to colleagues and absorbing how they do their jobs.

Months into a pandemic that rapidly reshaped how companies operate, an increasing number of executives now say that remote work, while necessary for safety much of this year, is not their preferred long-term solution once the coronavirus crisis passes.

plus, of course. parents need to get away from their kids and going to work is how they do that.