Down goes the Dow

Global over supply and falling demand. Now if investors get concerned that money can never be paid back?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Global over supply and falling demand. Now if investors get concerned that money can never be paid back?

Falling demand of what? The US is the only thing actually worth in investing in. Europe would be up their too, and is to some extent, but the whole negative interest rate thing pushed the US to the top spot.

Where else are investors going to go? Nowhere, that's where.

Vaccine news? Stimulus news? Falling Covid cases news? Anything but reality, and of course that is ignored. That’s what bubbles do.

raquette wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Global over supply and falling demand. Now if investors get concerned that money can never be paid back?

Falling demand of what? The US is the only thing actually worth in investing in. Europe would be up their too, and is to some extent, but the whole negative interest rate thing pushed the US to the top spot.

Where else are investors going to go? Nowhere, that's where.

Even I-Phones sales are reportedly down 23% in Q2.

Investors are pushed into risky assets by the belief in the Fed. Likely a foolish assumption.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Vaccine news? Stimulus news? Falling Covid cases news? Anything but reality, and of course that is ignored. That’s what bubbles do.

the market corrected a little as re-openings had to be reconsidered, slowed, and in some cases, even reversed. Now we are back to looking for any encouraging news. That's the bias at the moment.

Bubble or the groundwork for a new market recovery cycle?

That's what's being considered.

Sure:

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1285614802774130689

You need to stop ingesting pablum from Twitter and CNBC. That’s “news” for fools.

Johannes wrote:

You need to stop ingesting pablum from Twitter and CNBC. That’s “news” for fools.

Is that so? You never seem very informed, by the way.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Johannes wrote:

You need to stop ingesting pablum from Twitter and CNBC. That’s “news” for fools.

Is that so? You never seem very informed, by the way.

That’s hilarious coming from someone who is informed by Twitter and CNBC. And then you wonder why you are wrong so often.

Johannes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Is that so? You never seem very informed, by the way.

That’s hilarious coming from someone who is informed by Twitter and CNBC. And then you wonder why you are wrong so often.

So says the guy who still has soiled shorts from March.

raquette wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Global over supply and falling demand. Now if investors get concerned that money can never be paid back?

Falling demand of what? The US is the only thing actually worth in investing in. Europe would be up their too, and is to some extent, but the whole negative interest rate thing pushed the US to the top spot.

Where else are investors going to go? Nowhere, that's where.

Emerging markets have been flying, beating the US

1M:

VWO (emerging markets) +8.8%

VTI (US total stock market ) +5.2%

3M:

VWO +22.4%

VTI: +17.4%

Is this it? Is this the flip after a decade of garbage performance by EM stocks?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-2q-2020/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=episerver-campaign&utm_campaign=article-subscription-push&utm_content=GMO-7-Year-Asset-Class-Forecast&email=jesse%40thefelderreport.com&first_name=Jesse&last_name=Felder

$1 says that in 2013 GMO said something like 'stock returns in the US are likely to be flat to +2%.

And probably they loved emerging markets stocks.

I remember grantham bragging that he put 100% of his grandkids' money in emerging stocks. This was maybe 7 yrs ago. Oops. Awkward thanksgiving.

Just for Johannes, ?

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1285646020815261700

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-2q-2020/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=episerver-campaign&utm_campaign=article-subscription-push&utm_content=GMO-7-Year-Asset-Class-Forecast&email=jesse%40thefelderreport.com&first_name=Jesse&last_name=Felder

$1 says that in 2013 GMO said something like 'stock returns in the US are likely to be flat to +2%.

And probably they loved emerging markets stocks.

I remember grantham bragging that he put 100% of his grandkids' money in emerging stocks. This was maybe 7 yrs ago. Oops. Awkward thanksgiving.

There may be future awkward conversations with different asset classes. Grantham’s bubble chart from 1/2018 was pretty accurate so far:

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-2q-2020/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=episerver-campaign&utm_campaign=article-subscription-push&utm_content=GMO-7-Year-Asset-Class-Forecast&email=jesse%40thefelderreport.com&first_name=Jesse&last_name=Felder

$1 says that in 2013 GMO said something like 'stock returns in the US are likely to be flat to +2%.

And probably they loved emerging markets stocks.

I remember grantham bragging that he put 100% of his grandkids' money in emerging stocks. This was maybe 7 yrs ago. Oops. Awkward thanksgiving.

No! I was way too optimistic and generous.

GMO's 2013 7 year forecast predicted a -2% per year return for US large caps.

Instead the SP500 roughly doubled.

Oops.

(and yes they loved emerging markets in 2013 - oops again)

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

$1 says that in 2013 GMO said something like 'stock returns in the US are likely to be flat to +2%.

And probably they loved emerging markets stocks.

I remember grantham bragging that he put 100% of his grandkids' money in emerging stocks. This was maybe 7 yrs ago. Oops. Awkward thanksgiving.

There may be future awkward conversations with different asset classes. Grantham’s bubble chart from 1/2018 was pretty accurate so far:

https://cms.qz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/gmo.png?w=1240&h=654&crop=1&strip=all&quality=75

except that we're at near all time highs right now and that's not on those charts

Huh, you need glasses agip.....high was just under 3,400....?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Huh, you need glasses agip.....high was just under 3,400....?

correct - we're around 4% below all time highs on the SP500