Sub 3HR Fall Marathon Thread - The quest for less amateur glory begins?

You absolutely have sub-3 in you. I thought I could run sub-3 my first marathon 3 years ago off of too little base and blew up hard at mile 18. Slit 1:29, 1:50 and ran 3:19. My next marathon I was overly cautious, but even with just a bit better base mileage and more race/course specific work. I ran 3:02 in 70+ degree weather and a dew point in the 60s. You're definitely scarred from your first marathon (I was too), but you're a much better runner than you were then. If you're running 1:21 for the half, you probably already have the aerobic capacity for 2:50, so 3:00 is in the bag if you just making smart running and fueling decisions for the first 13.1.

Northener - My last 12 weeks long runs have been (16, 14, 15, 14, 17, 15, 18, off, 20, 16, 20, HM race 1:21:36)

Most of the long runs have been at a pretty easy pace (8-8:30) but I've incorporated a couple workouts into some of the more recent ones. The last 16 miler was : 3 miles E + [4 x (5 min T with 1 min rests)] + 45 min E + 15 min T + 2 miles E. My T pace during that workout was around 6:35-6:40 pace. Technically following Daniels my T pace should be a little faster but I am training with someone else and I'd rather run together, but not sure I would have run any faster anyway going by effort. I've been following a slightly modified/condensed Daniels plan the last 8 weeks.

The last 20 miler was 7:54 average pace with the last few miles the fastest (mile 20 was 7:30) but it wasn't a real hard effort. I haven't really done any extended MP runs like that though. Planning on doing a 16 mile workout this weekend and then probably an 18 or 20 miler the following week with some MP in it.

I had kinda given up on shooting for a sub 3 until my half marathon race. I hit 10 miles in 1:03 (6:19 pace) and felt amazing like I could have kept going at that pace for a lot longer had I not sped up. After that I thought hopefully running 6:50 pace I could keep it together for the marathon or at least until like mile 22 then grind it out.

finallyransub17 - Thanks for the confidence. You're right I am still scarred form that first marathon, I was hurting really bad those last few miles! But you're right I am a much better runner this year with a much bigger base. I had pretty perfect race conditions for that 1:21 half so I'm hoping for more good weather for the marathon and now I'm thinking I can do it.

Now I'm wondering if I should hit halfway in 1:30 or if 1:28/1:29 would be better to give a little cushion because I feel like I'll be hurting the last few miles regardless.

With all those long runs and a fast HM I would be shocked if you didn't break 3. I'd say you could do it in training right now never mind in 4 weeks time after a taper.

The fact that you are even doubting it is a real knock to my confidence in going sub 3 since you're training is so much more impressive than mine. If you can't do it then I've no chance!

MaybeSub3 wrote:

Now I'm wondering if I should hit halfway in 1:30 or if 1:28/1:29 would be better to give a little cushion because I feel like I'll be hurting the last few miles regardless.

For sure aim for halfway at 1:28. Not so much for the cushion, but more because you're in sub-2:55 shape. Your fitness is way ahead of where you were for your last marathon. Closing that half-marathon with three miles at sub-6 pace certainly reflects that. The only thing that gives me pause (very slight pause!) is the number of 20+ mile long runs. I like to have more under my belt, including one 23-miler, but you've run a quite a few, and your overall mileage is certainly more than I've ever consistently run.

Tebow Pinot - Thanks and true the taper will help. I think I just have bad memories from the end of my last marathon. That and up until a few weeks ago it seems like it has been so hot out that I really haven't had many impressive training runs (I live in TN). I slogged away at 8:30 pace on my long runs in the heat with water breaks and the effort was through the roof. That definitely made me question what a realistic marathon goal was. But since it has finally cooled off I feel much better. But I wouldn't say my training is that impressive I just try and get 2 solid runs in a week (1 midweek workout 10-12 miles and a long run on the weekend) but other than that I have just been running easy mostly around 8:30 sometimes over 9 min pace depending on how I feel.

last chance runner wrote:

MaybeSub3 wrote:

Now I'm wondering if I should hit halfway in 1:30 or if 1:28/1:29 would be better to give a little cushion because I feel like I'll be hurting the last few miles regardless.

For sure aim for halfway at 1:28. Not so much for the cushion, but more because you're in sub-2:55 shape. Your fitness is way ahead of where you were for your last marathon. Closing that half-marathon with three miles at sub-6 pace certainly reflects that. The only thing that gives me pause (very slight pause!) is the number of 20+ mile long runs. I like to have more under my belt, including one 23-miler, but you've run a quite a few, and your overall mileage is certainly more than I've ever consistently run.

Yes I agree about the 20 milers! I wanted to run a few more but some had to be cut short or moved around due to traveling on weekends or time constraints. Oh well. My mileage wasn't great in the summer but since beginning of last month I've increased and had weeks of 70, 65, and 68 leading up until last week. I only had 37 with a couple rest days last week then hoping for 2 more weeks of 65-70 before a 2 week taper.

MaybeSub3 wrote:

My last 12 weeks long runs have been (16, 14, 15, 14, 17, 15, 18, off, 20, 16, 20, HM race 1:21:36)

Following up on my previous comments, I think you and I are in remarkably similar shape. I also raced a half marathon several weeks before my planned marathon (three weeks out). I ran a very similar time as you, especially considering I lost almost a minute to a potty break. The big difference was that while you cranked the final three miles at sub-6, I faded to 6:20s.

Advantage: YOU

On the other hand, during the 12 weeks prior to my HM, I logged more long runs, including four of 20 miles or longer.

You: 16, 14, 15, 14, 17, 15, 18, none, 20, 16, 20, HM race 1:21:36, (plus planned 16 and 20)

Me: 15, none, 15, 18, 18, 20, 20, 15/14, 23/14, 21/14, 17, HM race 1:22:47, (plus actual 20 and 17)

Advantage: ME

However, you've averaged 50 mpw versus 44 mpw for me.

Advantage: YOU

You ran 3:29 last year, with a second-half fade. My most recent was a full hour slower, two years ago - 4:29 with a bonk.

Advantage: YOU

True, I have more experience - 23 previous marathons versus your 1.

Advantage: ME

But, I'm an old man in my 40s, while at 29, you're at peak marathoning age.

Advantage: YOU

Hopefully my results this weekend will add to your confidence. Uh oh, the pressure is on me now!

MaybeSub3 wrote:

Northener - My last 12 weeks long runs have been (16, 14, 15, 14, 17, 15, 18, off, 20, 16, 20, HM race 1:21:36)

Dude. For sure go out in 1.28. This is still conservative in your shape and sets you up nicely for a sub 3. I'm planning on hitting half in 1.28 and I came of a 1.22.52 half some weeks back. It was not an all out effort and I have probably 30sec -1min faster in me.

I understand that you are a bit nervous regarding the marathon since you've only done one before. But don't be. Just go for it and passing in 1.28 is a perfect start.

Prepare mentally for the fact that the marathon does hurt. This is fact and you will not get away from that. But it will hurt a bit less if you don't bonk and have to death march last 5miles. Just be ready, you're not going to cruise the last 5 miles, they are going to hurt. For sure not as much as last year, but still, hurting. Prepare for that and you're fine.

A suggestion. Next long run, do 2h easy (8min pace), directly followed by 5-6miles at 6'35-6'40. No rest. This long run would be good for you because it will mimic latter stages of a marathon, it will give you confidence about being able to go sub 3 and it prepares you mentally.

At the race, don't go out too fast. Cruise on autopilot on 6'35-6'40.

You got this.

Aiight. Last MP check before race. Did 3.8mi at 6'27 pace. Had to brake to keep the speed down. Pulse was 6-8 beats lower than normal when doing 6'40 speed. Nice!

Still planning on not going out faster than 1.28.

All is done. Only racing left to do.

Looking forward to Sunday morning.

Nice analysis! I'll be sure and check back to see how you did. Good luck!

Nice analysis! I'll be sure and check back to see how you did. Good luck!

Meant to include this post. I'm still figuring all this out I've read a lot of threads but haven't posted much.

Thanks for the confidence! Going out in 1:28 sounds like a good plan. I like to think I can push through some pain so I'll be giving it everything I've got those last few miles. And good long run suggestion I might do that next weekend before my taper!

And good luck on Sunday! Sounds like you're ready to go.

MaybeSub3 wrote:

Yes I agree about the 20 milers!

I wouldn't sweat it. Did the Daniel's 2Q plan and was averaging 63-70 miles for the few months before the taper. Only did 2 20 mile runs, one really hilly, another pretty flat and was just fine in the marathon. I also agree with others, you are well under 3:00 shape and given a flat course and good conditions you could probably crack 2:55.

Just read through a detailed course breakdown of mine on Sunday. My heart rate definitely spiked as I read through. Temp is looking perfect, maybe 40 at the start 45-50 by the end.

It is going to feel weird (hopefully great) to run with a group this time (starting with sub 3 pacer). Last time I strided to the start and weaved through the 3:30 and 3:45 groups for about 30 minutes. Not ideal. Can only imagine hitting 1:28-1:30 this time the better way (e.g. paced and with like-paced runners) will feel a LOT better. Last time I was like I can do this at the half mark (hit in 1:27 flat), but I had a bit of a sense of impending doom especially in miles 17-20 where I was able to manage well enough (6:45-7:00 pace), but it was a struggle, and I recognized the need to run with someone (I made the mistake to ditch him as he slowed and then my legs bonked). When I ran my half I also started with a slower group and basically ran solo the whole way.

Good luck to all. Only 2 and a half days away!

northener - You're describing my last day in the office to a "T". I'm sure you're still bouncing in your chair today, and for good reason. I know that it may seem silly to get all worked up about a race that in the grand scheme of things doesn't have a huge impact on the rest of your life, but the reality is that you have put a LOT of work into that one special marathon day. In that sense, it may be one of the most "important" things you do this year! :)

I enjoyed reading your background story. You've had a lot of success in the marathon -- that 2:48 at 42 is extremely impressive. I've also been following your training and you have a solid base of mileage and you've been running paces that indicate strong sub-3 potential. You've got what it takes to get this done. Not only that, you must get this done -- for me and for all of the other 47 year olds who need some hope. My dreams of sub-3 glory now ride on your shoulders, northener! No pressure!! :)

last chance -

Easy: 39.7 mpw (7:00+ pace)

MP: 0.5 mpw (6:40-7:00 pace)

HM/LT: 3.0 mpw (5:50-6:40 pace)

VO2max: 1.2 mpw (5:20-5:50 pace)

Total: 44.5 miles per week

This appears to be quite different from the 2Q based on the above, but since this is averaged over 16 weeks, I have to assume that things would look different over the last 8 weeks. Is that the case? You have impressive speed, as evidenced by your half and your 5k times. The only question is whether 44.5 miles per week provides enough endurance for you to bring home the glory!

I need to go over my numbers. The app I use doesn't allow me to easily get a pace histogram with the actual numbers, but I'm able to get a chart and it's possible to figure it out by looking at the graph.

Here's my monthly mileage graph for the last 4 years or so:

https://i.imgur.com/sSTwYMH.png

Compared to 2016, where I had a lot fewer miles slower than 8:00, I had a lot more volume in 2019. I really thought that was what I needed -- more easy volume to build strength. I ran fewer miles in the 5:30 to 7:00 pace in 2019, but, man, looking at the graph I feel like I should have done better this year. Definitely should have done better than 2018. I think it was the 4.5 months of complete de-training that killed me. I was putting in the miles this cycle, but my workouts never came together at the end. Maybe it was too much mileage too quickly after that relative break.

MaybeSub3 - You're "trying to decide"?? The moment you posted in this thread, you committed yourself to the sub-3. Seriously, will you be happy with anything else? Is there anything else? It's either sub-3 or not sub-3 -- there is no "maybe".

I don't care if there are tears. I don't care if you crap yourself. You will do what it takes to run a sub-3 in 4 weeks and you will keep us posted on your progress.

last chance runner wrote:

MaybeSub3 wrote:

Now I'm wondering if I should hit halfway in 1:30 or if 1:28/1:29 would be better to give a little cushion because I feel like I'll be hurting the last few miles regardless.

For sure aim for halfway at 1:28. Not so much for the cushion, but more because you're in sub-2:55 shape. Your fitness is way ahead of where you were for your last marathon. Closing that half-marathon with three miles at sub-6 pace certainly reflects that. The only thing that gives me pause (very slight pause!) is the number of 20+ mile long runs. I like to have more under my belt, including one 23-miler, but you've run a quite a few, and your overall mileage is certainly more than I've ever consistently run.

Great HM - should give you a lot of confidence - I defer to the seasoned 'vets on this thread to guide you on the marathon distance. Most importantly, you've made incredible progress and show a lot of talent with that HM effort.

Northener wrote:

Aiight. Last MP check before race. Did 3.8mi at 6'27 pace. Had to brake to keep the speed down. Pulse was 6-8 beats lower than normal when doing 6'40 speed. Nice!

Still planning on not going out faster than 1.28.

All is done. Only racing left to do.

Looking forward to Sunday morning.

excited to see your post - our thoughts are with you! You've given some great advice on this thread - really thank you for that.