2019 National XC rankings/predictions

my impression was Methner ran a comfortable race for him, just running to win. i think he could have gone faster if he had to (if the pace was faster).

Creaky Bones wrote:

Ah, my bad. Milesplit had 15:06 as the best prior time.

watchout has been posting some of the NXR All-Time lists this year. Here's what he posted for the NW Boys course (Eagle Island, Eagle ID):

greenliner wrote:

But St. Charles East just beat WWS with York a way distant third.

York apparently had some issues at the state meet.

St. Charles East beat WWS at State, so that's an At-Large point for them on top of what was a very strong race at State. As long as they weren't blown out of the water today, I think they are a near lock as an At-Large.

Oh? wrote:

NW Girls Championship - 2k Split

Thorvaldson continuing to crush it, 6:25.4 at the "2k" split

Chase pack led by Fiona Max (Summit) ranges from 6:39.8-6:41.5.

Also in the chase pack: Kate Peters (Lincoln OR), Lexy Halladay (Mountain View ID), Allie Janke (North Central WA), Julia David-Smith (Issaquah WA).

Mattalyn Geddes (Twin Falls ID) is about 3 seconds back in 6:44.7

With Thorvaldson going out this fast she will no doubt go with Tuohy at Nationals. Whether she can stick with her the whole race, is to be seen. But perhaps more competition than the last several.

N Naperville won MW 95 to 112 for Beaver Creek

https://nxrmw.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=298&do=news&news_id=589893

fastTuohy wrote:

my impression was Methner ran a comfortable race for him, just running to win. i think he could have gone faster if he had to (if the pace was faster).

His State meet speed rating was 197. I am going to estimate this one as 193-195.

[quote]JTFC! wrote:

last year 15:12 was 193. Was the course that much faster this year?

Comparing the two races it looks like this year was 9-15 seconds faster to me. But, Meylan is the master. So we will see what he come up with.

Boyden has the course record and he ran it alone two months ago with no one behind him. Will be very interesting to see what the Stanford commit does at footlocker with 6 weeks rest since Utah state meet. He’s my sleeper to beat Methner. Just watch.

NW boys teams

1. Kamiakin

2. Jesuit

3. Franklin

NW Girls teams

1. Summit

2. North Spokane

3. Jesuit

Oh? wrote:

Potential At-Large Teams:

188 Eden Prairie MN

227 Middleton WI

I don’t think these 2 teams have much potential for an at-large bid. Heartland is not that strong of a region this year on the boys side.

Bang Bang wrote:

Oh? wrote:

Potential At-Large Teams:

188 Eden Prairie MN

227 Middleton WI

I don’t think these 2 teams have much potential for an at-large bid. Heartland is not that strong of a region this year on the boys side.

I agree, I just listed them because they are eligible. Doesn't mean I think they are going to get much if any consideration (IMO they shouldn't, the HL just isn't good on the boys side this year).

NXN SW should be fun. Likely to be dominated by UT/CO guys and teams on the Boys' side with Daschbach out.

Top returners:

1. Sprout (CO)

2. Allred (UT - CC)

3. Ohlson (CO - DR)

4. Schubert (CO)

5. Boyle (UT - CC)

6. Norman (CO)

7. Le Roux (CO)

8. Whitworth (UT)

9. Daley (CO)

10. Rogers (UT)

Rogers hasn't run well all year, and Culpepper didn't run last year and has beaten Schubert and Le Roux this year at 4A State. My predictions are 1. Cole Sprout, 2. Connor Ohlson, 3. Cruz Culpepper, 4. Jordan Black, 5. Easton Allred. But I think Ohlson and Boyle will auto-qualify with their team, so I'll throw Schubert and Le Roux in.

On the girls side, top returners are:

1. Hall (AZ)

2. Stewart (CO - CC)

3. O'Sullivan (CO - MV)

4. Whitfield (CO)

5. Sumsion (UT)

6. James (CO - Niwot)

7. Arrigton (UT - LP)

8. Blair (CO)

9. Dishon (CO - Niwot)

10. McConnell (CO - CT)

The Pings will be in there as well. I am assuming Hutchins will run FL again. My predictions are 1. Lauren Ping, 2. Stewart, 3. Dishon, 4. McConnell, 5. Grace Ping.

Here are the top SW girls ranked by their speed ratings at their state meet

145 - AZ - Lauren Ping (150 at Mt Sac)

143 - CO - Sierra Bower

141 - AZ - Ali Upshaw

139 - CO - Riley Stewart (152 at Griak)

139 - CO - Samrawit Dishon (140 at Desert Twilight)

138 - CO - Samantha Blair (142 at Cherry Creek Invite)

138 - AZ - Grace Ping

135 - CO - Cameron McConnell (138 at Desert Twilight)

Dishon and Stewart are possible team qualifiers.

Milesplit is indicating that Thomas Boyden is going to run NXR SW. He didn't run it last year, so they could just be wrong. If he does run and he's healthy from whatever happened at state XC, I think he'll get 2nd.

I can confirm Boyden is not running at NXR Southwest... although I'm sure he'd love to run the same course (Desert Twilight) with his future teammate Cole. Speaking of NXR, EJ Holland was three seconds shy of Boyden's record at Eagle Island last weekend.

it's a mistake wrote:

I can confirm Boyden is not running at NXR Southwest... although I'm sure he'd love to run the same course (Desert Twilight) with his future teammate Cole. Speaking of NXR, EJ Holland was three seconds shy of Boyden's record at Eagle Island last weekend.

How did conditions differ on the two days?

My interpretation of the splits was that Holland really only pushed the last mile or so--stayed with the pack before that. Green led them through the first mile or 1.5 I believe. Who knows, but I gotta think Holland was good for that record if he wanted it.

Boyden will have a good chance at winning Footlocker if he's healthy, in my opinion (assuming he is not running NXR because he is running FL). The four top guys (excluding Daschbach since he shut it down for the year) that I think are a cut above Boyden (Young, Sprout, Methner, Holland) are all running NXN. If Methner runs both again, he'll have had three hard races in a row leading up to it. I'll give Boyden the slight edge over Morris, Solomon, and Daniel O'Brien.

Is Aidan Puffer injured?

Just saw that Gavin Sherry, another CT sophomore, is in Meylan's top 10-15 speed rankings nationally. Wonder how he'll do and whether he'll do FL or NXN.

Conditions for bob firman and NXR were nearly identical with the weather. Agreed EJ may have not been gunning for a record but Boyden also ran alone once Green dropped out of that race so who knows how much faster he could have gone.

Word is Boyden is back in very good shape and will be ready for footlocker after a ton of time off so I think it will be Boyden, Methner, and Morris throwing down. Should be fun to watch.