Armstronglivs wrote:
Playing with statistics doesn't change the fact that t and f is one of the dirtiest sports on the planet - and they are all dirty. The sport also gets tested more often because it is one of the worst offenders - like Kenyan running. The dirtier the sport - and country -the more official attention it attracts.
You didn't deny you literally cannot understand why more samples would lead to more positives, in and of itself.
The statistics you can't understand show why you are jumping to wrong conclusions. If we talk in terms of the likelihood of one sample testing positive, track and field ranks #7, around the global average.
Even if we talk about Kenyan doping, I'm waiting for the data that shows this likelihood is significantly proportionally worse than the overall average. Recall the Sunday Times summarizing the leaked blood test results of the IAAF from 2001-2012. Suspicion of blood doping among the Kenyan and Ethiopian medal winners was actually below the global average. Yet East Africans were winning when all of the other average athletes were not. Since then, Kenyan doping positives have gone up, as the testing has dramatically increased both in numbers of athletes tested, and the number of samples per athlete. In 2023, the AIU announced an increase in the domestic OOC testing pools from from 38 to 300. (This is in addition to the AIU's international RTP of 140 athletes). If we increased the domestic testing pool of distance runners in any country to 300, in addition to 140 athletes tested by the AIU, and ramped up testing to 5000 samples per year, we should similarly expect a significant increase in the number of positives, and should be unsurprised if it doubles.
What is missing from these figures is a likelihood figure of positive tests per athlete tested.