agip wrote:
rally hats, gents.
VWO (emerging market etf) is up around 11% in 3 weeks.
I was just reading this article in WSJ lol
https://www.wsj.com/articles/developing-world-migrant-workers-remittances-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-reopen-11593969595Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
rally hats, gents.
VWO (emerging market etf) is up around 11% in 3 weeks.
I was just reading this article in WSJ lol
https://www.wsj.com/articles/developing-world-migrant-workers-remittances-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-reopen-11593969595
the catalyst today is good econ numbers out of china.
It’s amazing how badly both the auditors and the regulators dropped the ball with Wirecard. It makes you wonder how common this sort of fraud is.
Tesla all time high up 14% today.
And another 4% after hours.
The very most shorted company in the world. Good gawd vast fortunes have been lost betting against that company.
Did y'all see that Elon had some bright red shorts made to mock the short sellers? And sold them all out? Love that stuff.
cfo departures wrote:
https://amp.ft.com/content/f697a093-4e1b-4ef4-9b16-820198e4a67f?__twitter_impression=trueIt’s amazing how badly both the auditors and the regulators dropped the ball with Wirecard. It makes you wonder how common this sort of fraud is.
The most disconcerting compliment I ever received was from an Ernst Young ( Wirecard's auditor ) analyst; that I understood balance sheets and capital structure better than most of his co-workers. For the record, I'm not an accountant.
It’s amazing how badly both the auditors and the regulators dropped the ball with Wirecard. It makes you wonder how common this sort of fraud is.
So a mathematician, and engineer and an accountant die, and go before St. Peter. They are asked one question before entrance into heaven: What is 2x2. The engineer says "2 plus or minus 1/2", the engineer says "4", and the accountant says, "I don't know Pete, what do you want it to be?"
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through July 6, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 1.58%. China's Shanghai is in second with a loss of 2.15% and in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.98%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 16.66%.
agip wrote:
Tesla all time high up 14% today.
And another 4% after hours.
The very most shorted company in the world. Good gawd vast fortunes have been lost betting against that company.
Did y'all see that Elon had some bright red shorts made to mock the short sellers? And sold them all out? Love that stuff.
It's funny though because no one would be surprised if the price gets cut in half next week too. It's the world's most expensive penny stock with the 21st century version of Jordan Belfort at the helm. It's valuation is derived strictly from memes and several hundred thousand metric tons of koolaid .
A car company that makes a few mid level luxury vehicles on par with Genesis and it's worth over $100 billion? Right. At least Amazon had novelty when it was hemorrhaging cash every quarter.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
The most disconcerting compliment I ever received was from an Ernst Young ( Wirecard's auditor ) analyst; that I understood balance sheets and capital structure better than most of his co-workers. For the record, I'm not an accountant.
Can’t trust the auditors and the regulators are nerfed because the politicians just want to see market numbers go up even if it’s all based on fraud. The next Wirecard could be a great short opportunity if you time it right. According to Mirabaud Securities (early and vocal Wirecard short seller) these are the signs to look for to find the next big fraud. Wonder what company fits all these criteria?
1. Massively promotional CEO who actively looks for publicity and spends a lot of time courting Wall Street/investors etc and is very media savvy
2. Huge CEO/Senior Management compensation package NOT tied to cash flow or Earnings but just to Sales and/or the stock price, creating the possibility of egregious wealth creation if the stock goes up a lot. Huge pledging of collateral by the CEO in return for margin loans to fund a billionaire lifestyle
3. Management compensation generally way out of line with peers despite notably less profitability
4. Glossy future projections that have a habit over a long period of being proven to be too optimistic
5. Questionable product quality, ie defects (boon??) or debatable technological leads over similar products
6. Some evidence of self certifying, whether it be through strange international subsidiaries or not having an Auditor or experiencing unusual and slightly sudden end of quarter surges in revenues, up to and including the last day
7. Unusual or unverified and large Receivables in a business where the product is exchanged for cash up front
8. Evidence that the company is existing on a shoestring, not paying Suppliers, Employees, Landlords etc
9. Unusual margin progression, with SG +A going down over time despite a rising global footprint, or GM's staying flat despite much lower ASP's over time, for instance.
10. High levels of Gross Debt. Cash balances not matched by notable Interest Income thereby suggesting they are fraudulent
11. High employee turnover, especially in the LEGAL and FINANCE areas. Co-founders or Board members leaving.
12. Aggressive pursuit via paid third parties and/or “heavies” of any critics or people who have too many questions, which in any case are “boring”
13. Dislike of Hedge Funds
14. Possible Narcissistic Personality Disorder on the part of the CEO. Additional points if he/she uses Twitter a lot
15. Large cabal of outcasts/weirdos/bloggers/Twitter groups who have been saying for years that everything is amiss but just get a lot of criticism because the stock keeps going up ergo they must be idiots
16. Slowing top line growth rate despite all the hoopla and supposed “growth stock” status. Evidence of competitors rapidly eroding unsustainably high market share.
17. Loss making. Ideally never made a profit but likes to pretend it did or failing that, that it will for sure in 2-3 years due to highly questionable new products. But the 2-3 years gets pushed out constantly
18. Extensive use/exclusive use of NON-GAAP Accounting and occasional bridging to get from a Net Loss to a (small) Net Profit via poorly explained one-offs/Other Items/unusually large Credits of some kind in a desperate attempt to get into an Index by illicit means
19. Weak Board, preferably also small and ideally in hock in some way to the CEO, who therefore do his/her bidding. Helps if some of them are related physically to the CEO.
20. Gullible media, gullible analysts and dozens of paid bloggers who produce Price Targets out of nowhere based on “Option Value” or put another way products that are at least 5 years away from having any material impact
Portia wrote:
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through July 6, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 1.58%. China's Shanghai is in second with a loss of 2.15% and in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.98%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 16.66%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/07/06/world-markets-update-july-6-2020?bt_ee=9VyHVOzWwaDaGfhy53JIk6%2FBjd0YP3LM2S7DQUcIBRyu8gIzf5XwiP47Vj9tygwV&bt_ts=1594124601673
“During the second quarter, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the quarter. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median Q2 EPS estimates for all the companies in the index,) declined by 37.0% (to $23.25 from $36.93) during this period. How significant is a 37.0% decrease in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter? How does this decrease compare to recent quarters?
During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.2%. Over the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.4%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 4.6%. Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the second quarter was much larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, and the 15-year average.
In fact, this marked the largest decline in the quarterly EPS estimate during a quarter since FactSet began tracking this data in Q1 2002. The previous record was -34.3%, which occurred in Q4 2008.” – FactSet
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Tesla all time high up 14% today.
And another 4% after hours.
The very most shorted company in the world. Good gawd vast fortunes have been lost betting against that company.
Did y'all see that Elon had some bright red shorts made to mock the short sellers? And sold them all out? Love that stuff.
It's funny though because no one would be surprised if the price gets cut in half next week too. It's the world's most expensive penny stock with the 21st century version of Jordan Belfort at the helm. It's valuation is derived strictly from memes and several hundred thousand metric tons of koolaid .
A car company that makes a few mid level luxury vehicles on par with Genesis and it's worth over $100 billion? Right. At least Amazon had novelty when it was hemorrhaging cash every quarter.
did you know that the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling car in California? I mean the best selling car. Maybe there's some subtlety to the stats of which I'm not aware though.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-california-best-selling-car/agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
It's funny though because no one would be surprised if the price gets cut in half next week too. It's the world's most expensive penny stock with the 21st century version of Jordan Belfort at the helm. It's valuation is derived strictly from memes and several hundred thousand metric tons of koolaid .
A car company that makes a few mid level luxury vehicles on par with Genesis and it's worth over $100 billion? Right. At least Amazon had novelty when it was hemorrhaging cash every quarter.
did you know that the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling car in California? I mean the best selling car. Maybe there's some subtlety to the stats of which I'm not aware though.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-california-best-selling-car/
Three things from that.
The first is that I would expect California, the wealthiest and gooberiest state in the US, to eat this sh!t up more than anyone else. Koolaid drinking, cargo short and sandal wearing bros with absolutely no sense in taste or even the slightest idea how to fix a car is their bread and butter market. Second, they sold the most Model 3s yes, but Toyota was at 3, 4, and 5. They effectively sold almost triple the number of cars just in California than Tesla. Finally, lock-downs went hard in CA early which shut down dealerships early.
I'm not saying Tesla is full of hot air. They have a product, and it's not bad. It seems pretty popular. Kia also has some cars that are not bad and fairly popular.
No one thinks Tesla is appropriately valued
^Funny.
“The J.D. Power US Initial Quality Study, which gauges problems encountered in the first three months of ownership, included Tesla for the first time in 2020. It was separated from the other brands, however, as the Elon Musk-founded firm reportedly wouldn’t allow its customers to be surveyed in 15 of America’s 50 states, meaning that it didn’t meet the study’s ranking eligibility criteria.
However, in the 35 states where Tesla owners were surveyed, it performed poorly. The study rates cars in terms of the number of problems per hundred cars (PP100), meaning that the lower a car maker’s score, the better initial build quality its cars have (according to its customers).”
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
It's funny though because no one would be surprised if the price gets cut in half next week too. It's the world's most expensive penny stock with the 21st century version of Jordan Belfort at the helm. It's valuation is derived strictly from memes and several hundred thousand metric tons of koolaid .
A car company that makes a few mid level luxury vehicles on par with Genesis and it's worth over $100 billion? Right. At least Amazon had novelty when it was hemorrhaging cash every quarter.
did you know that the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling car in California? I mean the best selling car. Maybe there's some subtlety to the stats of which I'm not aware though.
This is not sales, it's registrations. Registrations lag for Tesla so Q1 includes the year-end tax credit blowout extravaganza. That and the fact regular dealerships were shut down end of Q1 make this a nothingburger.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
It's funny though because no one would be surprised if the price gets cut in half next week too. It's the world's most expensive penny stock with the 21st century version of Jordan Belfort at the helm. It's valuation is derived strictly from memes and several hundred thousand metric tons of koolaid .
A car company that makes a few mid level luxury vehicles on par with Genesis and it's worth over $100 billion? Right. At least Amazon had novelty when it was hemorrhaging cash every quarter.
did you know that the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling car in California? I mean the best selling car. Maybe there's some subtlety to the stats of which I'm not aware though.
This is not sales, it's registrations. Registrations lag for Tesla so Q1 includes the year-end tax credit blowout extravaganza. That and the fact regular dealerships were shut down end of Q1 make this a nothingburger.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^Funny.
“The J.D. Power US Initial Quality Study, which gauges problems encountered in the first three months of ownership, included Tesla for the first time in 2020. It was separated from the other brands, however, as the Elon Musk-founded firm reportedly wouldn’t allow its customers to be surveyed in 15 of America’s 50 states, meaning that it didn’t meet the study’s ranking eligibility criteria.
However, in the 35 states where Tesla owners were surveyed, it performed poorly. The study rates cars in terms of the number of problems per hundred cars (PP100), meaning that the lower a car maker’s score, the better initial build quality its cars have (according to its customers).”
No surprise. Niche cars like Tesla, Jeep, Porsche, Jaguar, etc. are meant to appeal to status seekers, not knowledgeable car folks.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^Funny.
“The J.D. Power US Initial Quality Study, which gauges problems encountered in the first three months of ownership, included Tesla for the first time in 2020. It was separated from the other brands, however, as the Elon Musk-founded firm reportedly wouldn’t allow its customers to be surveyed in 15 of America’s 50 states, meaning that it didn’t meet the study’s ranking eligibility criteria.
However, in the 35 states where Tesla owners were surveyed, it performed poorly. The study rates cars in terms of the number of problems per hundred cars (PP100), meaning that the lower a car maker’s score, the better initial build quality its cars have (according to its customers).”
No surprise. Niche cars like Tesla, Jeep, Porsche, Jaguar, etc. are meant to appeal to status seekers, not knowledgeable car folks.
Sorry about the double. It didn’t like the unregistered name (I thought), so I went with my registered one.
What is a good car brand, looking for a used mid-SUV that has some space and is highly effective?
So says Detector Dude with the Honda Accord :-)