Maybe we just buy at VIX 35 and sell at VIX 28 and don't think too much more about it.
Maybe we just buy at VIX 35 and sell at VIX 28 and don't think too much more about it.
Hey, Igy, is this getting old?
The perma bears not only missed the bus these last ten years, it's been around the earth and they were given a second chance to get on, only to get missed a second time.
THe ground that's been covered in all that time, can never be made up.
interesting that high quality corporate bonds are fine today, as are REITS. That suggests to me this is not a serious market break.
Agip terror level: 7/10.
10 being fetal position under the covers.
seattle prattle wrote:
Hey, Igy, is this getting old?
The perma bears not only missed the bus these last ten years, it's been around the earth and they were given a second chance to get on, only to get missed a second time.
THe ground that's been covered in all that time, can never be made up.
Perhaps. Bears rule today!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Hey, Igy, is this getting old?
The perma bears not only missed the bus these last ten years, it's been around the earth and they were given a second chance to get on, only to get missed a second time.
THe ground that's been covered in all that time, can never be made up.
Perhaps. Bears rule today!
Enjoy it.
Seems like range bound trading. yesterday and today's finding same support levels or so it seems.
agip wrote:
interesting that high quality corporate bonds are fine today, as are REITS. That suggests to me this is not a serious market break.
Agip terror level: 7/10.
10 being fetal position under the covers.
If a little 2.5% dip has you scared then idk what to tell you. This is 2020 now and -2% for the day is business as usual for Friday.
REITs aren't breaking because it turns out the whole "mortgage and rent crisis!!!" only amounted to an additional 1-2% serious delinquency rate over the usual. In my opinion I think it's starting to look like most of the narratives about people living paycheck to paycheck were either overblown or didn't matter once everyone got in the same boat. Too early to tell though
“At GMO, we dealt with three major events before this crisis, and rightly or wrongly, we felt ‘nearly certain’ that we would be right sooner or later. We exited Japan 100% in 1987 at 45x and watched it go to 65x (for a second, more significant than the U.S.) before a downward readjustment of 30 years and counting. In early 1998 we fought the Tech bubble from 21x (equal to the previous record high in 1929) to 35x before a 50% decline. Through 2007 we led our clients relatively painlessly through the housing bust.
In all three, we felt we were nearly sure to be right. Japan, the Tech bubbles, and 1929, which sadly I missed, were not new types of events. They were merely extreme cases akin to South Sea Bubble investor euphoria and madness. The 2008 event was also easier if you focused on the U.S. housing euphoria, a 3-sigma, 100-year event, or, simply, unique. We calculated that a return trip to the old price trend and a typical overrun in those extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades. All these events echoed historical precedents. And from these precedents, we drew confidence.
But this event is unlike all those. It is new, and there can be no near certainties, merely strong possibilities. Such is why Ben Inker, our Head of Asset Allocation, is nervous. and this is why you are worried or should be.”
Jeremy Grantham, GMO
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Because of a 2% dip?!?
Actually it is true, on any dip the Bear bashing stops, especially if technology takes a hit. The gods of tech (5 stocks) 26% of the S&P 500. Pray they never crash, not likely though, so pray frequently.
What bear bashing?
What do you guys think, buy in a little now?
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1276620106781659136Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
interesting that high quality corporate bonds are fine today, as are REITS. That suggests to me this is not a serious market break.
Agip terror level: 7/10.
10 being fetal position under the covers.
If a little 2.5% dip has you scared then idk what to tell you. This is 2020 now and -2% for the day is business as usual for Friday.
REITs aren't breaking because it turns out the whole "mortgage and rent crisis!!!" only amounted to an additional 1-2% serious delinquency rate over the usual. In my opinion I think it's starting to look like most of the narratives about people living paycheck to paycheck were either overblown or didn't matter once everyone got in the same boat. Too early to tell though
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
interesting that high quality corporate bonds are fine today, as are REITS. That suggests to me this is not a serious market break.
Agip terror level: 7/10.
10 being fetal position under the covers.
If a little 2.5% dip has you scared then idk what to tell you. This is 2020 now and -2% for the day is business as usual for Friday....
But, but, but... what about all the "preferred customers" at Merrill Lynch (or whatever) who have been selling into the rally for the last two months, and the football fields of new Gen Z traders with the two wooden nickels between them? Are you keeping up?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1276620106781659136Racket wrote:
If a little 2.5% dip has you scared then idk what to tell you. This is 2020 now and -2% for the day is business as usual for Friday.
REITs aren't breaking because it turns out the whole "mortgage and rent crisis!!!" only amounted to an additional 1-2% serious delinquency rate over the usual. In my opinion I think it's starting to look like most of the narratives about people living paycheck to paycheck were either overblown or didn't matter once everyone got in the same boat. Too early to tell though
I think this is maybe the 500th time I've told you the a) I have aggressive Firefox add-ons that block embedded links (and all the other dumb ads on this site) and b) Twitter is plague so even if I could see it, I wouldn't bother with it, and finally c) dropping links to Twitter, or any other website for that matter, without providing any context does nothing to advance the argument.
Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Group Inc. is more than 30 days delinquent on $273.7 million of debt tied to a portfolio of business hotels, a sign that large real estate investors are considering walking away from properties in the pandemic
economy.
^That’s right....apologies.
seattle prattle wrote:
Racket wrote:
If a little 2.5% dip has you scared then idk what to tell you. This is 2020 now and -2% for the day is business as usual for Friday....
But, but, but... what about all the "preferred customers" at Merrill Lynch (or whatever) who have been selling into the rally for the last two months, and the football fields of new Gen Z traders with the two wooden nickels between them? Are you keeping up?
Not really sure what you're getting at really. Volatility is primarily being driven by the fact we're in an unprecedented economic sh!t show with a literal retard (and I feel strongly about this: if Trump were to take an IQ test I'm quite confident he would score in the necessary range for such a classification) at the helm in the White House.
If you thought I was implying it was a bunch of broke tik tok users then I think you misread me. Then again, confusion tends to abound on Internet message boards
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Group Inc. is more than 30 days delinquent on $273.7 million of debt tied to a portfolio of business hotels, a sign that large real estate investors are considering walking away from properties in the pandemic
economy.
^That’s right....apologies.
Big box mall retail stores were screwed long before COVID so this isn't too surprising. Honestly $273.7 million doesn't seem like that much either given the circumstances but I don't know what the size of the retail mortgage market is in total so maybe it is.
“As the United States continues to face record unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic, 30% of Americans missed their housing payments in June, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform.
That’s up from 24% who missed their payment just two months earlier in April and about on par with the 31% who missed payments in May. Renters, younger and lower-income households and urban dwellers were the groups most likely to miss their housing payments, Apartment List found. “
CNBC
Racket wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
But, but, but... what about all the "preferred customers" at Merrill Lynch (or whatever) who have been selling into the rally for the last two months, and the football fields of new Gen Z traders with the two wooden nickels between them? Are you keeping up?
Not really sure what you're getting at really. Volatility is primarily being driven by the fact we're in an unprecedented economic sh!t show with a literal retard (and I feel strongly about this: if Trump were to take an IQ test I'm quite confident he would score in the necessary range for such a classification) at the helm in the White House.
If you thought I was implying it was a bunch of broke tik tok users then I think you misread me. Then again, confusion tends to abound on Internet message boards
i was seconding your assertion that it wasn't anything to worry about unless you were prone to look for things to worry about, which never sounded plausible to me in the first place.
I hear you and I don't know how many times different ways folks in the media and elected officials alike can say that a pervasive lack of cohesive leadership is compounding difficult circumstances into untenable ones.
But lets just look at it this way, the big news of the last couple of days has been that opening is not going as well as hoped by an alarming degree. So, after yesterday's downturn followed by a rebound, a smart investor might want to limit their exposure over a weekend when it would be quite likely that some bombshell along those lines might hit. All while the markets are closed. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Monday with a big rebound if the weekend is uneventful or just more of the same.
Blackstone is big in private equity, to just walk away is what is surprising
Also in the CNBC story:
“Some 37% of renters and 26% of homeowners are at least somewhat worried that they will face eviction or foreclosure in the next six months, Apartment List reports. Columbia University researchers estimate that homelessness could increase by between 40% and 45% this year over where it was in January 2019.
Some legal experts expect “at least” 50,000 eviction filings in New York City alone when the state’s blanket eviction moratorium lifts June 20, most for nonpayment of rent. (A more restricted eviction ban is in place in the state until August 20.) “
Twitter, sorry but only way it can be copied:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1276835865214541826/photo/1