deferrals...
deferrals...
Is this market ever going to do down? If so, when? Even when it stalls at a new ATH (nasdaq), you don't see a rush to the exits.
seattle prattle wrote:
Is this market ever going to do down? If so, when? Even when it stalls at a new ATH (nasdaq), you don't see a rush to the exits.
.... and again, not today.
They’ll push the mega cap tech any time the market lags. Dow up .62% while NAZ .92%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
They’ll push the mega cap tech any time the market lags. Dow up .62% while NAZ .92%.
i've kind of noticed that. Almost a flight to security in that the big tech is safer than counting on a small cap rebound anytime soon.
Is it just that there's simply so much free cash out there that the market has to go up?
i attribute it to the Fed support, and the promise of yet more relief, bond buying, etc. Seems like it is still in the infusion phase overall.
seattle prattle wrote:... a flight to security in that the big tech is safer than counting on a small cap rebound anytime soon.
Don't say I never told you so... :-)
I gotta get one call right!
seattle prattle wrote:
i attribute it to the Fed support, and the promise of yet more relief, bond buying, etc. Seems like it is still in the infusion phase overall.
In other words, stocks are as good as ever to invest in even though some of the companies might not be as good as ever, at least in terms of revenue generated. Rates are gonna be low for the next couple of years and pension plans and other funds have to make big returns YoY or else they're more screwed than they already were.
What do you guys think?
I'm all cash now. Worth getting some exposure in the market even though I think there's a good shot of resurgence of covid in Sept?
Swaglord_the_real_one_1 wrote:
What do you guys think?
I'm all cash now. Worth getting some exposure in the market even though I think there's a good shot of resurgence of covid in Sept?
COVID-19 resurgence is certainly possible but the political will to lock down again just isn't there. Regardless of the situation, you're best bet is almost always "just give it to Vanguard." If you wanna gamble on futures or options give yourself no more than 5% to play with.
Racket wrote:
Swaglord_the_real_one_1 wrote:
What do you guys think?
I'm all cash now. Worth getting some exposure in the market even though I think there's a good shot of resurgence of covid in Sept?
COVID-19 resurgence is certainly possible but the political will to lock down again just isn't there. Regardless of the situation, you're best bet is almost always "just give it to Vanguard." If you wanna gamble on futures or options give yourself no more than 5% to play with.
that would pretty much be my first read on it, too. But..... i think the effect on business and the economy may be underestimated by the market, no matter how well the re-opening may go. One, i have learned to never under estimate the importance of the consumer, and 2) i think a whole lot of the population of the US is none too eager to embrace anything approaching normalcy anytime soon.
Yeah, you can open, but will they come? Some, obviously, but how much and how frequently?
seattle prattle wrote:
Racket wrote:
COVID-19 resurgence is certainly possible but the political will to lock down again just isn't there. Regardless of the situation, you're best bet is almost always "just give it to Vanguard." If you wanna gamble on futures or options give yourself no more than 5% to play with.
that would pretty much be my first read on it, too. But..... i think the effect on business and the economy may be underestimated by the market, no matter how well the re-opening may go. One, i have learned to never under estimate the importance of the consumer, and 2) i think a whole lot of the population of the US is none too eager to embrace anything approaching normalcy anytime soon.
Yeah, you can open, but will they come? Some, obviously, but how much and how frequently?
I saw a study that found the upper 25% of income families aren't spending much.
But the lower 75% had returned to almost normal spending.
This might seem weird but the reasoning seems sound: regular people don't have a lot of discretionary income. It comes in and goes out, to mortgage, cars, student loans, food.
But rich people have the discretionary income...and they aren't spending it on travel, entertainment, clothes, sports, restaurants.
Not sure how to turn this into an investment thesis tho.
And the regular people might run out of money after aid packages end.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1 wrote:
What do you guys think?
I'm all cash now. Worth getting some exposure in the market even though I think there's a good shot of resurgence of covid in Sept?
ask me! ask me!
I'm an excellent contrary indicator this year.
what worries me is a vicious cycle: less discretionary spending (which could be due to people choosing not to and because employment aid packages running out), which creates more lay-offs, which begets yet less spending....
Add to that, I would think the rich spenders tend towards the older segment of the population, and they are the ones that aren't coming out no matter what opens up.
So, those that would spend will find it harder to do so as aid runs out and lay-offs increase, and those that can spend, won't ..... until there's a vaccine.
agip wrote:
Swaglord_the_real_one_1 wrote:
What do you guys think?
I'm all cash now. Worth getting some exposure in the market even though I think there's a good shot of resurgence of covid in Sept?
ask me! ask me!
I'm an excellent contrary indicator this year.
HEy agip, good time to be jumping in? WHat do you think?
seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
ask me! ask me!
I'm an excellent contrary indicator this year.
HEy agip, good time to be jumping in? WHat do you think?
yeah no but I think it's not a unbad time to log in and click some buttons.