Down goes the Dow

George Corwin wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

What I find interesting is many here criticize inequities in the economy, but cheer a market that creates more of the same.

Specific examples, please.

Bump.

Swaglord_the_real_one wrote:

The market is so dumb. What changed in the past few days?

I’m just gonna DCA downward once it’s gets to 2800

All I can think is that we had a very significant run up in a short period of time with the Nasdaq hitting record highs and the S and P 500 turning positive for the year. Anyone who invested in high risk stocks like airlines cruise companies, and the financial sector (not really high risk IMO but it seems to be being treated that way) had a light bulb moment and decided to take profits. I sold out my entire position in United and was going to do the same with another airline but decided not to as I missed the day by 1 day and the drop was huge. Perhaps I should have sold anyway as now everything is down so much more...

Plus, news just broke about the insane deficit the US now has. I think it's a bit of panic-selling combined with finally seeing reality. CHK trading halted due to Chapter 11 which was probably a reality check/wakeup call to the Robinhood crowd which also caused them to sell Hertz and airlines et al.

I expect the markets to drop steadily over the next week or more, but who knows at this point. Been a truly wild couple of months. Gonna wait a couple days to see how things are going and then probably dump more money into an energy ETF. VDE, XLE, and IXC are all lower at present than they were at the bottom of 2009 and the lowest they've been since about 2004. They also come with a dividend yield of over 5%. Seems like a pretty safe bet unless I am completely missing something. Can't really see big oil going bankrupt any time soon even with the slow trend towards green energy.

bad investor wrote:

Guess I’m glad I’m not gambling my money on airline stocks. Let alone investing significant portion of my net worth on it.

With how much airlines tanked, not sure if 42% gain is that good. Probably much less now.

When you say 85th percentile and being proud, you shouldn’t be. From posting on letsrun as well as having the ability to take 5 months off for backpacking, you weren’t born into some kind of poverty.

I guess it makes sense that there are so many poor people on this thread timing the market and gambling with their money.

I wouldn't call it gambling. It is investing knowing the risk. I sold my United for a ROI of about 50% and am still positive or ~neutral on the others, though I expect them to go negative over the next week.

Jealous much? I spent 2.5 months in Asia after I quit my job and put my stuff in storage (no rent). I was able to afford this through living beneath my means. The other trips were done during my off-season (my job is seasonal). Again, I can afford that because I save around 50% of my net income during my work season. Talk about a silver spoon!

George Corwin wrote:

George Corwin wrote:

Specific examples, please.

Bump.

Google it, even came up at the Powell press conference.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

George Corwin wrote:

Bump.

Google it, even came up at the Powell press conference.

You said “many here”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Powell does not post here. My guess is you pulled that out of your ass.

George Corwin wrote:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Powell does not post here.

Oh my God it all makes sense now.

So that's where Maserati has been!

George Corwin wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Google it, even came up at the Powell press conference.

You said “many here”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Powell does not post here. My guess is you pulled that out of your ass.

My certainty is you’re wasting time, Detector Dude. You suck as usual.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

George Corwin wrote:

You said “many here”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Powell does not post here. My guess is you pulled that out of your ass.

My certainty is you’re wasting time, Detector Dude. You suck as usual.

Thanks for proving my point, Liar Dude.

Racket wrote:

George Corwin wrote:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Powell does not post here.

Oh my God it all makes sense now.

So that's where Maserati has been!

?

George Corwin wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My certainty is you’re wasting time, Detector Dude. You suck as usual.

Thanks for proving my point, Liar Dude.

How many handles is it now crazy one?

Oh, and you suck, scum bag.

No, not jealous at all. I’m only six years older than you and made about 3 times more than you at your age. Now around 4 times more, a wife, son, 2 paid off cars, 1 house rented and my current house has appreciated by over $200k. Oh, and I have good amount of AMZN bought several years ago that’s appreciated about 800% now and still holding. Bought TSLA at $460 as well. I’ve got quite a bit of bond to keep my portfolio balanced. Oh yea, and I have my 401k plan. This is what happens when you save 50% with much higher income.

This is why I say it’s stupid or dumb when you give play by play of trying to time the market with airline and cruise stocks that you’re gambling and you won’t make as much in the long run going in and out of position. And talk about massive amount of tax you have to pay for all of that short term gain.

You are fed with silver spoon. That’s why you have no ambition and make only $50k/year and take long backpacking trips. Only people who do this are people with massive safety net where they can fall back on if they fail like their parents.

I’m just annoyed of all these market timers and traders on here. I don’t want other younger readers to believing they can get rich quick in the market and get squashed. It’s about long term investment in great companies as well as low cost index funds with great portfolio balance. Also, it’s about maximizing income and reducing your spending. Not this gambling of buying some crappy airlines. How is not gambling when you got crushed today. You were also saying like last month that market was going to go down. You totally missed it and I’m sure you missed on massive gains from being out of the market. You were giving some very specific info like there’s no way that Dow was going to go up from some certain number that you pulled out of your behind.

I know it’s fun to play the market and gamble with it, but when you talk like you know what you’re doing, you’re going to get smoked trying to time the market and you’ll actually make more by just staying in the market instead of trying to time it.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

George Corwin wrote:

Thanks for proving my point, Liar Dude.

How many handles is it now crazy one?

Oh, and you suck, scum bag.

One, pantywaste.

?????

NDX back under the weekly 9 after liquidity grab bull trap wick above all time high. Massive bearish divergence in RSI. Looks headed back to a test of the Bollinger Band midline at minimum.

https://i.imgur.com/LsNEIr8.png

Giles Corey wrote:

Damn.

Getting slaughtered on my three airline stocks.

Up $31k on Monday close.

Two plus days later down $10k for the week

H/T @StockCats

Stock Cats has some funny posts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

?????

Looks like Igy lost yet another argument. LOL!

the idiot wrote:

Racket wrote:... there are ways to model stock price movement for various scenarios that would induce varying degrees of drift and volatility. It's not unlike signal processing in many ways.

You keep teasing us with promises... "put up or shut up," they say. I hear a lot of noise, but see no accompanying action.

Something occurred to me. Is your education in operations research by chance? Specifically between, say, 1975 and 1985 or so? It would make a lot of sense really and complete a lot of missing pieces of the puzzle as to why you just can't seem to grasp basic concepts that quantitative analysts with PhDs in math and physics use every day. Maybe you're trying to argue for or against Bayesian interpretations and it's just not coming through. Perhaps you're talking about fuzzy theory. I don't know.

I truly and honestly am perplexed by this. I think this is maybe the 7th or 8th time I've pointed you at generally accepted models: geometric Brownian motion, and Levy processes (specifically, alpha stable processes). There might even be more that I don't know of, it's not really my area of interest! And if an expert wants to chime in than I'm all ears!

The stochastic processes above are rigorously defined by Ito's lemma which provides a construction for stochastic calculus, which provides a method of analysis for stochastic differential equations (like those that define stock price movement).

Someone has told you, apparently (probably some hack in OR), that "probability" doesn't exist or is subjective in some way, shape, or form. This is incorrect. Probability was rigorously axiomatized by Kolmogorov into a consistent space aptly called a probability space (Lp spaces come into play here but I'm only familiar with them in terms of some of their applications to Hilbert spaces). The space is measurable through the probability measure.

The linear regression you do in an Excel spreadsheet is cute. If you want to up your game and actually understand how certain financial instruments behave then let me know. Otherwise, enjoy tilting at windmills.