Besides, the chart was market cap to GDP, the Buffett Indicator.
Besides, the chart was market cap to GDP, the Buffett Indicator.
For Racket:
“Existing Home Sales in April plunged 17.8% MoM to the lowest SAAR since September 2011 (at 4.33mm, slightly better than the 4.22mm exp).”
Dropped $25k or so into UAL before opening this AM.
Up 6.14%!
Tesla down nearly 0.5% on me though
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Low interest rates reflect poor future growth. Massive corporate debt does not fuel growth only more financialization. So like a snake that eats it’s tail, ultimately destructive. Every economic crisis requires more stimulus to keep the game going, and the resulting GDP shrinks further. All the while the vast majority of Americans have less. There is an end point to the madness.
low interest rates reflect low inflation more than anything else. Tech has crushed inflation. There is no sign it will come back at levels requiring high interest rates.
sure, there is always an end point. Eventually. It never seems to arrive for those looking for the big stock market crash though.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The nine year return 3/2000 thru 3/2009 would have said you are very wrong: -6.81% annualized, so would the 2/2020 high. So disagree.
huh? The stock market did not decline 6.81% per year for 9 years.
Giles Corey wrote:
Dropped $25k or so into UAL before opening this AM.
Up 6.14%!
Tesla down nearly 0.5% on me though
dude you are a riverboat gambler
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Low interest rates reflect poor future growth. Massive corporate debt does not fuel growth only more financialization. So like a snake that eats it’s tail, ultimately destructive. Every economic crisis requires more stimulus to keep the game going, and the resulting GDP shrinks further. All the while the vast majority of Americans have less. There is an end point to the madness.
Now who’s forward looking?
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The nine year return 3/2000 thru 3/2009 would have said you are very wrong: -6.81% annualized, so would the 2/2020 high. So disagree.
huh? The stock market did not decline 6.81% per year for 9 years.
S&P 500 Index return -6.81% during that period....Two Over 50% Last 20 years, currently in middle of the third....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
huh? The stock market did not decline 6.81% per year for 9 years.
S&P 500 Index return -6.81% during that period....Two Over 50% Last 20 years, currently in middle of the third....
you put in the word 'annualized' -6.81%
I don't think you meant that.
agip wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Dropped $25k or so into UAL before opening this AM.
Up 6.14%!
Tesla down nearly 0.5% on me though
dude you are a riverboat gambler
Not even close.
I have maybe 6% of my liquid assets in equities.
Instead of going with funds, I decided to go with TESLA and some airline stocks
S&P 500 Calculator
Starting Month 3 Starting Year 2000
Ending Month 3 Ending Year 2009
Adjust for Inflation (CPI)? No
Calculate Reset
Total S&P 500 Return -47.51%
Annualized S&P 500 Return -6.91%
Total S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) no
Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) no
Inflation Adjusted (CPI)? no
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
S&P 500 Calculator
Starting Month 3 Starting Year 2000
Ending Month 3 Ending Year 2009
Adjust for Inflation (CPI)? No
Calculate Reset
Total S&P 500 Return -47.51%
Annualized S&P 500 Return -6.91%
Total S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) no
Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) no
Inflation Adjusted (CPI)? no
ok I stand corrected
Hope you are well.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hope you are well.
I'm good yes. Having a rough running week (sore, tired, flat), but health is good. Was in great shape in April but May was a bit sketch. I need to settle down into a system and just build on what I have. Fundamentals. 100% healthy though.
All the best to you and your family.
agip,
Thanks, we are all good. I will be working from at home until my retirement 9/30. My fitness was progressing early March and as I said at the time planning to run Carlsbad 5k. I was in ~23:00 5k shape at the time, and have significantly regressed since then. I was slowed with closed gym and public track. Pounding the asphalt does not work well on this nearly 70 year old body. Next week plan one organized workout with my group and one YMCA session. So gearing back up, but no races in sight.
Igy
agip,
I am “forward looking” on my running :).
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I am “forward looking” on my running :).
Igy
heh I see what you did there.
Like you, I was ready for a big running year. It's small potatoes compared to what other people have suffered, but it has been disappointing not to put a big race in the books. Like Carlsbad would have been for you.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Thanks, we are all good. I will be working from at home until my retirement 9/30. My fitness was progressing early March and as I said at the time planning to run Carlsbad 5k. I was in ~23:00 5k shape at the time, and have significantly regressed since then. I was slowed with closed gym and public track. Pounding the asphalt does not work well on this nearly 70 year old body. Next week plan one organized workout with my group and one YMCA session. So gearing back up, but no races in sight.
Igy
Glad to hear you're still able to keep putting one foot in front of the other, at least, and willing to do so. You, too, Agip.
As for the pounding, i've had really good luck with the new Nike carbon plate shoes and the Hoka Clifton (similar cushioning but no carbon plate), and I am told there's now a NB shoe with a lot of cushioning and a carbon plate that folks here recommend as a good everyday trainer. You might want to try it out, since that extra cushioning is allowing me to run every day without feeling beat up anymore.
Cheers.
Seattle,
Thanks. I have a few issues, but who doesn’t with age. I did my neighborhood run in the Hoka Clifton’s yesterday, and agree they are a joint savior. I got some carbon fiber Nike for racing, haven’t thought about the carbon training shoes. So good recommendation there. Our local tracks are pretty nice, and prefer a mix of track work with spin bike, swimming, and free weights. It looks like pool swimming will be weeks out in Idaho.
Take care.
Igy
agip wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Dropped $25k or so into UAL before opening this AM.
Up 6.14%!
Tesla down nearly 0.5% on me though
dude you are a riverboat gambler
Lol. I thought the same thing. If you bought UAL and are up, sell. I say this as someone who bought UAL at an average price of about $29/share. I own stock in several other airlines, and I think UAL is probably the ugliest one I own and plan to sell if/when it turns a profit for me. I see United struggling for some time, moreso than airlines like Alaska, Southwest, Skywest, Delta. It definitely is in way better shape than American though.
Which brings me to my question: what happens to the other airlines if American files Chapter 11? Won't that be a good thing for the other airlines? I realize Chapter 11 doesn't mean death of the business, but won't it severely reduce the competitiveness of American? They will have to drastically downsize and sell assets for cheap to come up with cash? Reduce flights to only the most profitable? Given their size, I would think American filing chapter 11 would be a major boost to airlines like United, Delta, Southwest, etc.