agip wrote:
L L wrote:
Yes, if everyone votes, Democrats will win most races and pick up seats.
The issue is that Republicans control a lot of local legislature where Democrats are trying to keep their seats.
Look at Georgia, for instance and Texas (which picked up two districts).
Also Arizona.
They will make it hard to vote in cities and Democrat strongholds.
Will there be mail-in voting again?
Will there be easy access to early voting?
I think the economy will be pumping along as we head into November 2022.
I wonder if that will change a single conservative's vote.
Biden's approval ratings are almost entirely based on partisanship.
Basically, 95% of Democrats approve of Biden's job and 10% of Republicans.
And no one is changing their ideology.
Maybe we can count on the Republican fracture.
I saw a good graph the other day...
It had the Ds and Rs predictably polarized. The inverse of Trump. So that will be roughly a wash 2018 compared to 2022. Was 90/10 now it's 10/90. Dumb US politics.
BUT
Independents far, far, far favor Biden over Trump. That's a big switch.
The hope is that indies will throw midterms to the Ds.
I do not worry one bit for the 2024 presidential election because trump’s involvement will deliver an easy win for Biden, but it’s a different story for the House races. Although, presumably a lot of trumpers voted in a number of Congress members due to their support for trump. Since he lost, will those voters be motivated enough from lib fear?