wejo wrote:
Constantine Tomescu won the 2008 Olympic marathon. Granted she was a 2:21 runner in her prime but her win was a total surprise.
As far as I can tell, the Olympic women's marathon has never been won in under 2:23. If Gwen can train to close the last 10k very fast off a ~2:25 pace (or faster), she might have a better chance. Same might be true with the US trials. On the other hand, someone is bound to run sub-2:20 eventually.
What indisputably evidence do you have her chance is less than 1%; therefore, given you the right to round down to zero.
Honestly she may never do it but given her 2 performances after maternity and limited training, I see Gwen as one of the most promising prospects WITH THE TALENT and ability to crack the all-time top 5 list in both the 5 and 10000m by 2020. And ultimately the U.S marathon all-time top 5 by 2024. S
Sometimes what person does off limited training speaks tremendously about what they will be capable of with more and suitable training siuations such as Gwen has now with Shalane and Jerry (which she never had or been part of).
Dril wrote:
But does LR have a 0% probability of being right about Gwen's 0% probability to win OG? Seems like VIPAM is 100% wrong about LR being 100% wrong about Gwen having 0% chance.
Jeez, I need a drink!
VIPAM wrote:
What indisputably evidence do you have her chance is less than 1%; therefore, given you the right to round down to zero.
Honestly she may never do it but given her 2 performances after maternity and limited training, I see Gwen as one of the most promising prospects WITH THE TALENT and ability to crack the all-time top 5 list in both the 5 and 10000m by 2020. And ultimately the U.S marathon all-time top 5 by 2024. S
Sometimes what person does off limited training speaks tremendously about what they will be capable of with more and suitable training siuations such as Gwen has now with Shalane and Jerry (which she never had or been part of).
She sets her goals high which is a good check mark on the “high self esteem “ column.
It would be fair to say that provided she does not get injured, makes the Olympic trials marathon, classifies and goes to the Olympic marathon she has a fair chance of being top ten. More realistic now and setting aside any numerical chance?
HAAAAAhahahahahaaaa wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
This year her on could be sub 15 and sub 31:10. By 2020 all the way down to sub 14:50 and sub 30:40.
Vipam, I usually like your posts, but in this case you're entirely dreaming.
Plus she'd have to run 14:30 / sub 30 to have any chance.
VIPAM - You are correct.
HAAAAAhahahahahaaaa - You are incorrect.
Settled.
Soprano wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
MY POINT is a running publication has a responsibility to ensure they promote the sport their followers and athletes read and to do so with intentionally writing negative remarks that could offend our elite athletes. Especially when they are wrong.
No, we do not have any responsibility whatsoever to worry about not writing negative remarks or offending elite athletes. If you're a journalist and you're letting fear of offending someone influence your analysis, then you're doing it wrong.
A 'journalist' from Letsrun has no business lecturing anyone about journalism. For that matter, most of today's 'journalists' have no place lecturing people about 'good' journalism.
wejo wrote:
I think people do a poor job of estimating highly unlikely events.
If she's on the team I wonder what her odds of winning are. The good thing with the Olympics there are only 6 Kenyans and Ethiopians she has to beat.
In 2014 we had an article we said the odds of Ryan Hall or Meb winning Boston were between 3.7% (1/27) and 0051% (1/19,813). Clearly, Meb won Boston. But how often is there a totally crazy race? Maybe more often than we think.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/04/can-american-win-end-30-race-drought-win-boston-yes-telling-theres-chance/Having said that I think Steve thinks Gwen's chances of winning the Olympics in the marathon are well below 1% so he said 0. Now maybe we should have pushed him "Steve is there ANY way you can see Gwen winning the marathon?"
So I put that question out there now.
Steve is there anyway she can win the marathon?
I just looked this up Emma Coburn was 5% to win Worlds last year and she was already on the team and won of the top runner's in the world.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/08/betting-odds-2017-iaaf-london-world-championships-track-field-athletics/But there is more variability in the marathon.
Constantine Tomescu won the 2008 Olympic marathon. Granted she was a 2:21 runner in her prime but her win was a total surprise.
So, RoJo, if G-Money were to run a 14:45 and a 30:10 sometime during the 2018 outdoor season, how would you modify your prediction?
I would have said close to zero as well, until Meb won Boston, Rupp won Chicago and Shalane won NYC. And coming from pro triathlon, Jorgensen knows how to suffer for two hours straight.. so I'm optimistic. Championship style marathons are more often than not, a crap shoot. As long as she can get a few marathon starts under her belt before then.
She could run 14:58-15:03 (5000m) and 31:10 this year and they still would stand behind that statement. No matter how much she reduce her personal best this season and the next 2 years. Which is their prerogative.
Some of you guys do not understand who is going to be competing at the Olympics for the marathon in 2020.
Ayana and Tirunesh will definitely be competing for Ethiopia, and more than likely it will be Vivian, Chelimo and Cherono.
While our women are trying to go sub 20, and break kastor's record, Africans are trying to go sub 16!
Hell Ayana might come along and run a god damn 2:14.
This is getting out of hand.
Scorpion_runner wrote:
Some of you guys do not understand who is going to be competing at the Olympics for the marathon in 2020.
Ayana and Tirunesh will definitely be competing for Ethiopia, and more than likely it will be Vivian, Chelimo and Cherono.
While our women are trying to go sub 20, and break kastor's record, Africans are trying to go sub 16!
Hell Ayana might come along and run a god damn 2:14.
This is getting out of hand.
Ah I see Scorpion has vacated his own thread to decimate Olympic dreams on this one! Happy stinging! Are you an ex-boyfriend of Gwen's or something? Maybe there's a female scorpion out there that will allow you to destroy her dreams as well!
Lol
Scorpion_runner wrote:
Some of you guys do not understand who is going to be competing at the Olympics for the marathon in 2020.
Ayana and Tirunesh will definitely be competing for Ethiopia, and more than likely it will be Vivian, Chelimo and Cherono.
While our women are trying to go sub 20, and break kastor's record, Africans are trying to go sub 16!
Hell Ayana might come along and run a god damn 2:14.
This is getting out of hand.
What about Keitany?
VIPAM wrote:
What indisputably evidence do you have her chance is less than 1%; therefore, given you the right to round down to zero.
...
You want to punish anyone who estimates her changes unless than have "indisputable evidence" ?
I don't think you understand either sports *or* handicapping.
Who said I want to punish anyone. I'm debating someone who said an elite athlete with tremendous upswing has a 0% chance at a marathon gold medal.
What's wrong with me loving my American distance runners and not wanting them subjected to unnecessary negativity on running websites from a moderator?
We definitely needed your opinion to be its own thread. The previous thread talking about this wasn’t enough.
VIPAM wrote:
I'm not trolling and not trying to angry anyone; however, to say a emerging elite athlete has a z 0% chance at an Olympic Gold is wrong. Know saying she has a 0% chance at running a sub 2::05 legal marathon is different.
In the next 2 year Gwen could very well turn out to be a 2:18 marathoner. Not saying she will but it is possible, she could make the team, and line up in Tokyo to conditions that favor her strengths. While it may be unlikely it is still very possible.
The thing I admire the most about Gwen she set her goals very high, placed herself in an environment to possibly achieve her goals, and putting in the work to best pursue said goal. She may not win Olympc Gold but I admire her goal and honestly think her chance is better than ZERO percent, REALLY!!!
VIPAM wrote:
I’m debating someone who said an elite athlete with tremendous upswing has a 0% chance at a marathon gold medal.
Still waiting on your response... what % chance do you believe she has? Or.. what odds would you take on a bet that she doesn’t win gold? 100/1? 1,000/1? 100,000/1?
I liked your post a lot. Well reasoned.
LM wrote:
Shalane is a legitimate challenger for a gold medal, at least in her shape from last year. She has run neither of those times. Moreover, Olympic marathons tend to be run more during the day and feature much high temperatures than normal which changes the game. I'd give someone like Shalane a 5-10% chance to win Olympic gold. In my mind, gwen has perhaps a 1/3 to 1/4 chance to develop into a similar caliber runner as Shalane (upper 14s, lower 30:xx). Putting those two together gives you at least a 1-2% chance, possibly going as high as towards 5%.
The major question is how does Gwen develop coming off tri. If her huge aerobic volume means she doesn't progress much and only shaves off 10s over the next two years...it's probably not in the cards for her. On the other hand, the fact that her training hasn't been geared toward running could make it possible she shaves 20s the first year and 10s the next year, and then you're talking about a Huddle/Hasay caliber athlete. Those types have a very legitimate non zero shot at winning.
Anyone that thinks Gwen has a zero percent chance has to think that people like Shalane and Hasay also have a zero percent chance at gold, or are certain that Gwen can't make some significant two year improvements because she is already near completely developed from triathlon training.
Well reason by placing personal % on opinions,is the only thing I disagree with on this and the ZERO percent post. Don't disagree with your opinion, just debating how you come up with your numbers.
As for Shalane' chances Im not sure how high they are. To win NY she had to have two women have an off day. The field wasn't very deep.
But the women's Olympic marathon isn't often that deep either thanks to there only being 3 per country and how However women's road running is entering a new level.
Odds of Gwen or Shalane getting within 2 minutes of world record are 0. Winning Olympic marathon? Shalane is way way way ahead of Gwen. Let's get Gwen to sub 225 first.