How far could Kipchoge run sub 6 minutes per mile pace?

Analyticser wrote:

Based on my advanced analytics, since he was 25 seconds over the 2 hour barrier, he could run a 6 minute mile for 75 miles. (6x25)/2=75 miles.

How did you account for the multiple pacers doing a wind-break wedge, and the fancy pacing lights for that 2:00"25 run?

31 miles wrote:

dfafadsf wrote:

I think well over 100 miles.

It does not work that way. He does not have the fat stores to get that far. He would drop out at 30ish miles. There is no equivalency running for 2 hours versus running for 10 hours. It is like comparing a sprinter to an 800m runner—a 100m dude should be able to hold 13 seconds per 100m for at least 800m … easy as can be.

Wait, the man can average 4:38/mile for 26.2 miles, but you think he would drop out at 30 miles running 6:00/mile pace?

As far as he wanted to.

Kid running after kipchoge wrote:

Africans don't and never will humiliate themselves with ultra marathon running. It's for white slow heelstrikers.

Do you think anything might tempt him? $2m? $5m? Run marathons for a few more years, then have a go?

XHA wrote:

Kid running after kipchoge wrote:

Africans don't and never will humiliate themselves with ultra marathon running. It's for white slow heelstrikers.

Do you think anything might tempt him? $2m? $5m? Run marathons for a few more years, then have a go?

The race would draw zero revenue so where would this money come from?

I think he could get close to 100 miles at around 6-min pace...maybe he'd fade off to 6:15-6:20 pace after 80-miles or so if he got a cramp or had some major stomach issues or something (which could happen). 50-miles at sub 6-min would be a cake walk for him....esp on a track. Heck I think I could even do that.. I think his training would have to change slightly though. Some extended long runs over 45km and less high end aerobic/lactate threshold stuff....probably could cut out the 15 x 1km at 2:48 or whatever. He'd also need a dialed fueling strategy (hydration balance etc.). This would also assume ideal weather conditions. There are definitely some things that could go wrong for him after 6 + hours, but generally (like I've always said) flat-runnable ultras (esp the road and track stuff) correlate directly to marathon PRs and marathon specific running economy/fitness.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

XHA wrote:

Do you think anything might tempt him? $2m? $5m? Run marathons for a few more years, then have a go?

The race would draw zero revenue so where would this money come from?

It's just a hypothetical!

But I don't really see where the money for the sub 2 attempt came from? Would Nike have sold more shoes if he dipped under 2 hours? Did they sell more because he attempted it?

I don't even really see where all the money for elite marathoners comes from. I realise there is an enormous amount of revenue from the masses, but how much do the elites contribute? Is London more popular with the masses because it's won in around 2:05 rather than 2:10-15? Do they really receive hundreds of thousands of revenue (from TV or advertising) due to a handful of very fast runners?

XHA wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The race would draw zero revenue so where would this money come from?

It's just a hypothetical!

But I don't really see where the money for the sub 2 attempt came from? Would Nike have sold more shoes if he dipped under 2 hours? Did they sell more because he attempted it?

I don't even really see where all the money for elite marathoners comes from. I realise there is an enormous amount of revenue from the masses, but how much do the elites contribute? Is London more popular with the masses because it's won in around 2:05 rather than 2:10-15? Do they really receive hundreds of thousands of revenue (from TV or advertising) due to a handful of very fast runners?

I think part of it is the TV, NBC (or whoever broadcasted it) probably paid a pretty penny for the rights to broadcast the Berlin Marathon. I think you are underestimating the ad revenue generated from such an event.

Also the amount of money from entries is absurd, Berlin had:

1. 44,389 runners @ roughly 145 USD per entry= 6.4 million USD

2. 5258 in-line skaters @ roughly 87 USD per entry= 457k USD

The other stuff was hard to find info on, but there’s 7 million USD right there not taking into account all of the ad revenue generated from the signs lining the entire course. I have no idea what that’s worth, but 7 million USD is plenty to cover costs, pay elites entry fees and prize money and still have profit. Remember many of the people working the marathon are volunteers. So I do agree with you that that people aren’t going to sign up for marathons because the winner ran 2:05 over 2:12 but I really think that the WMM’s are so big and have so much money that it doesn’t matter, and the race directors compete to have the best elite race.

The main thing is there is minimal interest in the race. I learned about the new world record only from LR and I can't name one winner of the World 100K. The other problem is that since no elite marathoners have run it, it's not possible to estimate what the WR should be. If Kipchoge beat the record by 10 minutes it could still be a soft record.

kipchoge just does what kipchoge does, who are you to analyze him and try to undermine all these different dynamics you dang sucka you aint feelin me right now u herd what bout now boy wuzzup boo ya baby

Bekele could run that pace for 100 miles to brake 10 hours. He is the greatest runner. Just give him the shoes Kpchoge weared in Berlin and hey presto. Them shoes make things easier. Imagine what time Bekele would have run in 2016 with them. Of course the developers in Nike only finished them in 2017.

I also like to think that I could get down to brake Camel Herring's time if I had the time and trained for it myself whenever I'm in prime shape. It would be kind of cool and iconic to run 12 hours 37 minutes which would brake her time but it would also represent Bekele's WR for 5,000m with the minutes replaced by hours and seconds replaced by minutes.

Banana Bread wrote:

I also like to think that I could get down to brake Camel Herring's time if I had the time and trained for it myself whenever I'm in prime shape. It would be kind of cool and iconic to run 12 hours 37 minutes which would brake her time but it would also represent Bekele's WR for 5,000m with the minutes replaced by hours and seconds replaced by minutes.

Banana Brains speaks again on something he doesn't know about.

6 minutes is so slow it would be fatiguing for him

According to my research he could sustain a 6 minute/mile pace for 7.43 miles. Then he would, most likely, blow up and begin taking walk breaks.

Good Luck and God Bless!

He would never run those distances.

But imho 50miles or 100K is well in his reach.

He is undoubtedly a better endurance athlete than whoever has the 100 k record at this time.

He would start to cramp at 27 miles.

As a marathoner, he cannot run more than 26.2 miles. The pace is irrelevant.

mo'pak wrote:

The Soh twins did 120 kms at around 6.20 pace when training in NZ in 1983. They did this quite comfortably and could certainly have gone much further if they really wanted to.

That's so so.....