craft beer: the bubble is about to pop

All beer is crap, it doesn't matter if it was crapped out locally or somewhere else. Utterly disgusting. You have to be mentally ill to enjoy the nasty flavor.

Craft is in.. for a lot of things.. not just beer. People are getting sick of the mega corporations providing subpar products when small local individuals can produce something better for pretty much the same price. Will craft breweries reach a saturation point? Yes, because that's economics, but most areas are still underserved.

Greatlaker wrote:

Craft is in.. for a lot of things.. not just beer. People are getting sick of the mega corporations providing subpar products when small local individuals can produce something better for pretty much the same price. Will craft breweries reach a saturation point? Yes, because that's economics, but most areas are still underserved.

+1 good answer

Seems to me it burst once here in Washington about 10 years or so ago. You could pick up commercial brewing equipment for pennies on the dollar.

While I am seeing a number of newer fair sized craft breweries in the area, what I am noticing now are far more really small breweries...mini micro breweries.

A couple of big differences with 10 + years ago as well: canning very small batches, and someone is producing far smaller kegs for commercial use, some just a couple of gallons. I'd guess that is why you see a bar with 70 beers on tap.

The bubble is not going to pop any time soon. However, the rate of craft growth, which has been incredible, is slowing. Sales of the traditional major brewers in the US have been shrinking at about 2-3% at the same time that craft consumption has been growing, so the total number of beer drinkers has been relatively stable. This is the reason that the major brewers have started buying up craft brands. There will be some consolidation in the craft industry because the keys to growth are not just making great beer, but then getting distribution and shelf space in markets and stores. Also, for the small (and larger) craft brewers, brewpub operations that are even halfway well-managed tend to be almost always successful and reasonably profitable.

I see a lot of consolidation and buy outs in the future. There is very little discounting in craft beer, in don't see a collapse for many years.

In 2016 craft beer made up 12.6% of the US beer market, overall beer sales were flat while craft sales were up 6%!

I see share of market capping around 20% then a delcine, but by then most medium sized brewers will be owned by the big boys like Laugunitas 10 barrell elysium Ballast Point etc etc. are now.

But you are missing the big story - millennials drinking wine, all kinds including premium and craft. thats were the business will be going.

rabble rabble rabble wrote:

The problem is all the independent breweries are being bought up by the mega corporations like inbev and diegeo. Mass distribution kind of takes the fun out of it and leads to boring mass market pleasing less carefully made beers.

I would't expect a contraction though, probably just a plateau.

Don't believe for a second that the beers produced by large breweries are made any less "carefully" than the micros and craft brewers. I'd argue that the quality control and consistency exceeds what the little guys are capable of. The big European brewers produce exceptional beer. And the US domestics deserve respect as well. Many may not care for the style or label, but these companies produce beer across the country and even internationally that look and taste the same using different water sources and without being able to hide behind heavy doses of hops. Just don't try floating a bottle cap on the head.

Bad Wigins wrote:

All beer is crap, it doesn't matter if it was crapped out locally or somewhere else. Utterly disgusting. You have to be mentally ill to enjoy the nasty flavor.

Another day, another dumb post by BW.

Nothing like projecting your feelings onto millions (billions?) of others.

HardLoper wrote:

Agree OP. This isn't true everywhere, but beer in the PNW has become a contest to see who can make the most bitter, hoppy tasting drink with zero regard towards taste. And the few non-IPAs are really heavy stouts and porters that will knock you out in the summer and don't pair well with food. Undrinkable!

Sad if true. Come to NYS. We're doing quite nicely with our pop-up microbreweries. Yes, they too offer IPAs, but the range of other styles is greater and hits closer to the middle.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Even among the IPAs it seems like the focus has shifted from super-hoppy to things like grapefruit IPAs (I'm not a fan). I mean sure, there are still plenty of IPAs but I believe the variety has gotten wider.

Some varieties of hops will naturally produce that grapefruit-y taste. These hops became more popular, and as a result, some breweries went for broke and decided to call their IPAs "grapefruit" and also add some grapefruit juice or puree, so I hear.

So saying that the focus has "shifted" from super-hoppy to grapefruit IPAs is a bit like saying that focus of shapes on a classroom door has shifted from rectangles to squares. Too similar to be worth using the word "shifted." Perhaps "homogenized."

dissonance wrote:

Redneck: "We don't make nuthin' in 'Merica anymore! We need Trump to bring back err jerbs!"

Me: "Actually, this beer was made right here in town entirely from domestic ingredients, most of which were actually grown within a 10 minute drive of the pub. Every time you buy a pint, you are supporting American labor ranging from agricultural workers to brewers to service people. "

Redneck: "You neck-bearded hipsters are un-'Merican! Get that fancy pants burr outa hur an' bring me a Bud!"

Me: "Umm...okay. Here's your bottle of InBev. Good talking to you, sir."

Can't speak for all rednecks, but the "nuthin' [being produced] in 'Merica anymore" is, for me, referring to a lack of non-ingestible / non-food products made here. Even on Shark Tank, it seems like every product pitch is either a subscription service for emotion-products (like dog-toys or picture-books) or a food business. Maybe a symptom of fat America itself when all we produce are food products.

Macdaddy wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

All beer is crap, it doesn't matter if it was crapped out locally or somewhere else. Utterly disgusting. You have to be mentally ill to enjoy the nasty flavor.

Another day, another dumb post by BW.

Nothing like projecting your feelings onto millions (billions?) of others.

Then why do you do it?

Beer is shit.

inthepdx wrote:

sdfasdfasdfdf wrote:

You heard it here first.

The expansion has been similar to golf courses in the 1990s. Unsustainable. Expect major contraction shortly.

Carry on.

I think we are barely back to the same number of breweries as pre prohibition and there were way less people back then. There's still plenty of room to add more

Yeah, we don't want Wisconsin running out of beer.

CallMeCaitlyn wrote:

inthepdx wrote:

I think we are barely back to the same number of breweries as pre prohibition and there were way less people back then. There's still plenty of room to add more

Yeah, we don't want Wisconsin running out of beer.

Rich Piana a dbag himself wrote:

Gravy wrote:

Dang, bro. Did a hipster douchebag bang your boyfriend? Haha

Yeah, it's always interesting when someone declares their superiority over someone else by complaining how someone else thinks they are superior.

Excellent insight!

Why is "craft beer" associated with IPAs? I go right for the goses, blonds, ambers, browns, stouts. Everything but the IPA.

I used to think there was a craft brewery bubble waiting to happen. But I heard someone a few weeks ago say that craft breweries are the new neighborhood bar. At least in my small towns in upstate NY, that is pretty much true. No one goes to sports bars anymore, they congregate at the breweries in town.