"Tactical Races" make no sense to me

This would be close to true barring two things:

1) Impossible to know your fitness for that day - In other words, if you come in planning to run your race, and someone makes a big surge that you think is too aggressive he then gets a gap on you. You plug away and the gap eventually closes, but not quite in time, and you realize you had a good amount in the tank. Had you marked the surge to an extent, you would have pushed yourself more than planned, but found you had the ability on that day.

If you knew going in that you were going to be in 13:15 shape on that day, then yes running 13:15 would be the ultimate tactic. But you don't know that. If you are having a day of days and ready to PR by 10 seconds, but hang back through 2 miles running your race, with the leader winning in 13:06 and you only pushing hard in the last 2k for 13:09...well you could have won following the others

2) Drafting - You dismiss it as trivial...but far from it. There is a certain amount of energy necessary to overcome air resistance. This energy is lessened when you are tucked in behind someone. There is no magical property of a rider on a bicycle that allows drafting benefits there to magically vanish when running on two feet.

In several studies that have been done, running behind another runner reduces the energy needed to overcome wind resistance to near trivial values. At the relatively slow pace of 14:00/5k several studies have found differences in O2 consumption associated with 1s PER LAP. In other words, it takes the same effort to solo 14:00 as it does to run 13:48 in a pack. Obviously, the effect increases as the race gets faster as a larger portion of energy is spent to overcome air resistance.

This basically nullifies the idea of running away from somebody at the elite level. If you want to run away from a 12:50 guy...better be prepared to solo 12:35.

Well just take your bike and drive 5k alone in 12:50 (4:07 mile pace).

Then ask someone to drive the same 5k in front of you in 12:50 and follow him behind as close as possible.

What you will notice is how easy it is to follow some one and how much less energy needs to be spent. And this is on your bike which is much much much more energy friendlier transportation than running.

TDodd22 wrote:

A 12:50 can't run 12:50 on his own. That is the reason, if he is gonna run a 12:50, he doesn't want to do all of the dirty work the whole race. He wants to make sure he isn't using extra energy by leading, that is where tactics come into play. Not always does Mo Farah out kick his competitors, he has been out kicked numerous times by guys with less closing speed than him.

Have you ever heard of Henry Rono?

LM wrote:

In several studies that have been done, running behind another runner reduces the energy needed to overcome wind resistance to near trivial values. At the relatively slow pace of 14:00/5k several studies have found differences in O2 consumption associated with 1s PER LAP. In other words, it takes the same effort to solo 14:00 as it does to run 13:48 in a pack. Obviously, the effect increases as the race gets faster as a larger portion of energy is spent to overcome air resistance.

That's really interesting. Do you have a link to the studies that can be read without a paywall?

British physiologist Griffiths Pugh showed that at the speeds at which middle-distance track events are run (6 m/s or about 67 seconds per 400m), about 8% of the runner's energy is used in overcoming air resistance. But by running directly behind a leading runner (or drafting) at a distance of about 1 m, the athlete can save 80% of that energy.

Chester R. Kyle calculated that at world-record mile pace, a runner running 2 m behind the lead runner would save about 1.66 seconds per lap, which generally confirms Pugh's estimations.

I'm channeling Tim Noakes here.

I don't remember that article but two things come to mind. First, Pugh often used extremely small samples in his research, making it quite unreliable. But more importantly, the alleged importance of drafting varies enormously between studies from different physiologists.

Randy Oldman wrote:

British physiologist Griffiths Pugh showed that at the speeds at which middle-distance track events are run (6 m/s or about 67 seconds per 400m), about 8% of the runner's energy is used in overcoming air resistance. But by running directly behind a leading runner (or drafting) at a distance of about 1 m, the athlete can save 80% of that energy.

Chester R. Kyle calculated that at world-record mile pace, a runner running 2 m behind the lead runner would save about 1.66 seconds per lap, which generally confirms Pugh's estimations.

I'm channeling Tim Noakes here.

Need link for proof. If true its the only rational argument that has been posted.

Does anyone know if anyone has analyzed racing tactics rigorously, either using theory or data? Both are needed if we are going get any insight into this question.

So does this mean Rudisha was worth 1:38 in his solo London 800m effort?

something that no one has mentioned yet is that these are professional runners- winning races is their job. running a race at PR pace today will put more of a physical/mental strain on your body than sitting and kicking, so itll be harder to win your race next week, or next month, or whatever. If my livelihood depended on winning races, I would want to win/place with as little effort as possible. trying to gut out a PR every time you race someone with a faster kick than you is a great way to burn out and lose your job.

mehp wrote:

something that no one has mentioned yet is that these are professional runners- winning races is their job. running a race at PR pace today will put more of a physical/mental strain on your body than sitting and kicking, so itll be harder to win your race next week, or next month, or whatever. If my livelihood depended on winning races, I would want to win/place with as little effort as possible. trying to gut out a PR every time you race someone with a faster kick than you is a great way to burn out and lose your job.

Correct. You body only has so many "pr's" in it. Running for one every race will shorten your career drastically.

neato wrote:

LM wrote:

In several studies that have been done, running behind another runner reduces the energy needed to overcome wind resistance to near trivial values. At the relatively slow pace of 14:00/5k several studies have found differences in O2 consumption associated with 1s PER LAP. In other words, it takes the same effort to solo 14:00 as it does to run 13:48 in a pack. Obviously, the effect increases as the race gets faster as a larger portion of energy is spent to overcome air resistance.

That's really interesting. Do you have a link to the studies that can be read without a paywall?

I think this one at least can:

It is rare for one elite to beso much better that he can just blow away the whole field. Presumably the goal is to win the race, not just beat Farah (for example). If runner x goes out at pr pace, he might very well beat a given"kicker" only to lose to 5 others who can run a fast pace for the whole race. If you are running 12:50 pace for 5000, tiny errors in pacing can destroy you. At 13:20 pace, you have more room for error. Also, there is money, fame, and success to be had by finishing 2nd or 3rd in the Olympics or another big race. Not everyone wants to take a big chance of a horrible finish when they have a real chance at a silver medal or big cash prize.

Just watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iKt8_pkHgY

From the peanut gallery wrote:

Does anyone know if anyone has analyzed racing tactics rigorously, either using theory or data? Both are needed if we are going get any insight into this question.

Let's look at the 2012 Olympic 5000:

Place name Country OlyTime PR 2012 Best

1 Mo Farah  Great Britain 13:41.66 12:53.11 12:56.98

2 Dejen Gebremeskel  Ethiopia 13:41.98 12:46.81 12:46.81

3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa  Kenya 13:42.36 12:49.04 12:49.04

4 Bernard Lagat  United States 13:42.99 12:53.60 12:59.92

5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech  Kenya 13:43.83 12:48.64 12:48.64

6 Abdalaati Iguider  Morocco 13:44.19 13:09.17 13:09.17

7 Galen Rupp  United States 13:45.04 12:58.90 13:09.50

8 Juan Luis Barrios  Mexico 13:45.30 13:09.81 13:13.54

9 Hayle Ibrahimov  Azerbaijan 13:45.37 13:11.34 13:09.17

10 Lopez Lomong  United States 13:48.19 13:07.95 13:11.63

11 Hagos Gebrhiwet  Ethiopia 13:49.59 12:47.53 12:47.53

12 Yenew Alamirew  Ethiopia 13:49.68 12:48.77 12:48.77

13 Mumin Gala  Djibouti 13:50.26 13:17.17 12:21.21

14 Cameron Levins  Canada 13:51.87 13:15.19 13:18.29

15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro  Uganda 13:52.25 12:50.72 13:00.68

Based on their PRs they would finish:

Oly Place name Country

2 Dejen Gebremeskel  Ethiopia

11 Hagos Gebrhiwet  Ethiopia

5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech  Kenya

12 Yenew Alamirew  Ethiopia

3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa  Kenya

15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro  Uganda

1 Mo Farah  Great Britain

4 Bernard Lagat  United States

7 Galen Rupp  United States

10 Lopez Lomong  United States

6 Abdalaati Iguider  Morocco

8 Juan Luis Barrios  Mexico

9 Hayle Ibrahimov  Azerbaijan

14 Cameron Levins  Canada

13 Mumin Gala  Djibouti

Based on their 2012 fitness they would place:

Place name Country

2 Dejen Gebremeskel  Ethiopia

11 Hagos Gebrhiwet  Ethiopia

5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech  Kenya

12 Yenew Alamirew  Ethiopia

3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa  Kenya

1 Mo Farah  Great Britain

4 Bernard Lagat  United States

15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro  Uganda

6 Abdalaati Iguider  Morocco

9 Hayle Ibrahimov  Azerbaijan

7 Galen Rupp  United States

10 Lopez Lomong  United States

8 Juan Luis Barrios  Mexico

14 Cameron Levins  Canada

13 Mumin Gala  Djibouti

Most of the fastest runners set their PRs in Paris that year.

The real question is - what place would Farah have gotten if he ran in Paris?

Madmandoc wrote:

It is rare for one elite to beso much better that he can just blow away the whole field. Presumably the goal is to win the race, not just beat Farah (for example). If runner x goes out at pr pace, he might very well beat a given"kicker" only to lose to 5 others who can run a fast pace for the whole race. If you are running 12:50 pace for 5000, tiny errors in pacing can destroy you. At 13:20 pace, you have more room for error. Also, there is money, fame, and success to be had by finishing 2nd or 3rd in the Olympics or another big race. Not everyone wants to take a big chance of a horrible finish when they have a real chance at a silver medal or big cash prize.

Exactly. When my oldest son was running the mile in high school dual and tri meets he was often 15-20 seconds faster than anyone else in the field. It would have been stupid for him to have gone through the 1320 in 3:42 and risk getting out kicked by a 4:50 guy who was a really good sprinter. Steve Holman missed the 1992 (I think) Olympic team because he was out kicked at the Trials by three guys whose best times were at least three seconds slower than his which I thought was a very questionable strategy. Prefontaine was unbeatable in domestic competition and he ran from the front, hard all the way because he was much faster than his US rivals. But he never managed to win a major international race using that strategy against guys capable of running the distance at comparable speeds to his own. Someone mentioned Henry Rono. At his peak, Henry too was just so much faster than everyone else that he could run away from everyone early and hold on but there is so much competition at the top now that no one is that much better than everyone else.

As we're using the 5,000 for our sample distance here, if you've run 13:00 and are the fastest in the field with that time but only by a couple seconds you'll have a hard time winning that race by going to the front and pushing the pace. Remember that you almost certainly did not run your 13:00 by leading all the way. You were in a pack with rabbits who dragged everyone along at that pace. That's how fast times are run now days. Trying to run that pace on your own with a bunch of 13:02 to 13:10 guys sitting on you will wear you down as will that slight extra effort you're getting from wind resistance, and you'll likely be out kicked.

You realize that if races actually worked the way you think they should, they would be painfully boring to watch, right? If the eventual outcome was known, and everyone just lined up and ran the time that they had predetermined was their best potential time, no one would watch.

Ever watch a high school girls' XC dual meet? What you describe is basically how these races unfold. Everyone just sets out on their goal pace from the gun. Sure, people are setting PRs every race, but the eventual winner is decided within the first mile (usually more like the first 200m).

If you are drafting in a race that has Mo Farah there is 0% chance you will win. No chance at all. Mo wins automatic. Not 1% chance of winning or 2% chance of winning. 0% chance. If you draft in a race with Mo Farah, you are saying you don't want to win and you are only racing for 2nd or worse. The only tactic you have is the tactic to not win. If you want to win Gold in a race with Farah, it can't be a tactical race. It's crazy that there is not one elite other than Farah that wants to win Gold. Slow race against Farah is giving Farah a free pass to Gold.

Major leagues wrote:

Think about it like baseball. A talented high school pitcher can throw nothing but fastballs and dominate his competition, but no way that will work in the pros.

But it would be equally ridiculous to throw nothing but splitter, because it is your "go to" pitch. You need to mix up to be effective. The current obsession with "sit and kick" is like relying on one pitch all the time.