love the educated fanbase here wrote:
A runner gets outkicked during a slow tactical type first race of the season and the speculation begins ...
It's certainly not time to overreact but Cain is a world championships finalist at 1500, with 1:59 speed, and she just lost to a woman who didn't even make the NCAA indoor meet this year in the 800.
It would be the equivalent of one of the top three 1500m male runners in the US opening up with a 3:48-3:49.
She looked really tired. Maybe she was sick a few weeks ago.
truther wrote:
It's certainly not time to overreact but Cain is a world championships finalist at 1500, with 1:59 speed, and she just lost to a woman who didn't even make the NCAA indoor meet this year in the 800.
So what? Not making the NCAA indoor meet has nothing to do with whether or not someone has better sprint speed than Cain. I'm sure there are plenty of 400 runners who didn't make it past the regional meet who have better speed than Cain.
These races were slow enough for such types to have a chance. That's what happens in sit and kick races. Have you never watched track before? Remember Webb vs Ritz at 10k?
AlSal has proven he can develop talent. Not just Rupp, but the work he's done with Hasay, Rowbury and others.
Hasay's development in terms of strength, speed and form has been a beauty to behold.
But the armchair coaches who don't have inside info on her training are writing off Cain as if she's washed up! At least we're not getting accusations of her doping!
I said last August that something was weird with Cain but couldn't put my finger on it.
Go back and look at her her interviews in June/July. When she talks about her summer, she talks about World Juniors then focus, then being excited to go to Europe after World Juniors, etc. She even mentioned how she was going to miss some classes at the start of school year because of her European schedule. She was on several start lists in Europe beginning shortly after World Juniors.
Then...nothing. She suddenly dropped out of sight and no-showed for every race in which she was entered.
But what was weird was the absolute silence about WHY she wasn't there after saying shortly before that she was going. No comments about injury, fatigue or anything. She just disappeared. It wasn't the disappearance I found odd so much as the lack of explanation as to why. My hypothesis was that there was something going on with her that nobody wanted to talk about.
And I think there still is.
You're right that there was no immediate explanation about the Diamond League withdrawals. But Salazar did offer one when he entered Cain in the 5th Avenue mile in September.
http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2014/09/mary_cain_plans_to_run_in_next.html
After the disappointing tenth in the 5th Ave race, that was the end for 2014.
Sometimes there is no explanation, nothing "going on", nothing to blame. I'm not going to predict Cain's outcome, but if 2013 remains her best season that would not be unusual.
She looks soft. Maybe 5-7 pounds away from her fighting weight.
anyone wrote:
AlSal has proven he can develop talent. Not just Rupp, but the work he's done with Hasay, Rowbury and others.
Hasay's development in terms of strength, speed and form has been a beauty to behold.
Salazar has not done anything that significant to any of his runners except Rupp (and that took him a decade).
Rowbury is back to running the times she was already running before Salazar. Hasay has always been a strength runner and her 5k PR is still not quite there.
mathuhmagician wrote:
It would be the equivalent of one of the top three 1500m male runners in the US opening up with a 3:48-3:49.
She looked really tired. Maybe she was sick a few weeks ago.
She did look tired. Do you think she might have low thyroid? I bet that's what Salazar's thinking. What are the odds that he's already started making plans for Ms Cain to pay a visit to America's Controversial Sports Doctor, Dr Jeffrey Brown of Houston? Maybe while she's there, Doc Brown can shoot her up with whatever new miracle substance "mad scientist" Salazar is into this year.
Shift in her hormones.
rojo wrote:
I said about a month ago to a buddy that this would be a very important outdoor season for Cain. I was like, "After outdoors, people will be looking at her recent results in two very different ways."
Let me explain. Take a look at her resutls from outdoors the last few years:
1500
2011 4:23.59
2012 4:11.01
2013 4:04.62 AJR AYR
2014 4:06.34
800
2012 2:03.34
2013 1:59.51 AJR AYR
2014 2:01.67
2014 clearly shows a lack of improvement. But one can say, "Cain was focused on world junior 3000 gold. That's all they cared about, etc"
That may have been the case but the lack of a PR at that age always should make people a little nervous. Couple that with her indoor results this year in the mile:
Mary Cain Miles
2013 4:28.25i AJR
2014 4:24.11i
2015 4:31.31i
and I said to my buddy, "Wow. The importance of her outdoor season can't be understated. If she rocks outdoors, people are going to dismiss last year's lack of PBs as being nothing but the reslt of her focus on World Juniors and this year's indoor reslts on her being sick."
"But and this is a big but. If she doesn't run well outdoors, people are going to go back and look at those things TOTALLY differently. Is she yet another HS girl that peaked really early?"
This was only her season opener and I ddidn't see the race, but assuming no falls or anythiing, getting smoked by a LeBlanc who didn't even make NCAA indoors in the 800 or the finals outdoors last year isn't good.
It's not time to panic but it's definitely time to pay even more attention. I always said as a coach, it's very common to improve a lot and then hit a plateau for a while. Then wait for another breakthrough. Hasay seemingly did that for all of college. But a big step backwards is never good.
Living without her parents for the first time? Preparing her own meals for the first time?
But she did make the choice to take on these transitions as a professional runner rather than in the more sheltered/supported college team environment.
imalumberjack wrote:
You're right that there was no immediate explanation about the Diamond League withdrawals. But Salazar did offer one when he entered Cain in the 5th Avenue mile in September.
http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2014/09/mary_cain_plans_to_run_in_next.htmlAfter the disappointing tenth in the 5th Ave race, that was the end for 2014.
Sometimes there is no explanation, nothing "going on", nothing to blame. I'm not going to predict Cain's outcome, but if 2013 remains her best season that would not be unusual.
Not sure how I missed that at the time because I was watching for an explanation, but I appreciate you posting that.
Other options wrote:
The pacer did a horrible job and took them through 800 in about 2:20 and kept going for another 200 at an even slower pace. Then alexi made a move and gapped the field. Cain and Leblanc reeled her in and Cain didn't have it last 100. Was not a fast race but Cain didn't run bad. She was just racing the field not for time and someone was quicker than her the final 100. It's acceptable as she's probably not sharp yet. And yes she did a workout after the race. Everyone is always so critical! Can't win every race or be at your best all the time!
If you are the greatest HS distance runner the USA has ever seen and Alexi Pappas gaps you off of a slow pace, it is a big deal, and not in a good way.
And you say "she's probably not sharp yet" ... why on earth would she not be? She ran a complete indoor season concentrating on 800/1000m and it is late April now. If she is not ready to race, then why race?
jjsj wrote:
anyone wrote:AlSal has proven he can develop talent. Not just Rupp, but the work he's done with Hasay, Rowbury and others.
Hasay's development in terms of strength, speed and form has been a beauty to behold.
Salazar has not done anything that significant to any of his runners except Rupp (and that took him a decade).
Rowbury is back to running the times she was already running before Salazar. Hasay has always been a strength runner and her 5k PR is still not quite there.
I have no dog in this fight and am not really a fan of Rupp, but I always feel I have to point out stupid when I see it.
Rupp broke the U.S. high school record for 3000 m with a time of 8:03.67.
In the spring of 2004, Rupp won his 5000 heat against college runners at the Stanford Cardinal Invitational with a time of 13:55.32, fourth-best in U.S. prep history.
He went on to break the Oregon state records for 1500 m (3:45.3) and the mile (4:01.8), the latter mark being the eighth-best in American high school history at the time.
On July 3, 2004 in Heusden-Zolder, Belgium, he broke Gerry Lindgren’s 40-year old U.S. high school record for 5000 m by almost seven seconds, running 13:37.91 for the distance.
He finished his high school career with a 10,000 m race in 29:09.56 in Brasschaat, Belgium, fourth-fastest ever for an American high schooler.
So he was actually great TEN YEARS AGO and it did not "(take) him a decade".
4:01.8y, 5:18.5 2k HSR, 8:03 3k HSR, 13:37 HSR
I would say those are pretty good marks, considering that three of the four were HSRs and he was not best at the mile.
Did this kind of hyper overreaction exist before the internet? or is it a product of the internet age?
It's not a linear progression. Here's a fun exercise: Make a list of the worst races ever run by world record holders, or even national champs. As epic bombs go, Cain's barely even registers.