I think Maton will be under 15:00 this year. I don't have a good idea what place that will get him in this field but he's certainly stronger than last year.
Should be exciting. I hope everyone has a great race.
I think Maton will be under 15:00 this year. I don't have a good idea what place that will get him in this field but he's certainly stronger than last year.
Should be exciting. I hope everyone has a great race.
I don't know, the speed ratings on Dyestat seem reasonable. It shows 10 guys with the equivalent of a sub 9 min 2 mile performance. Probably what you would expect right?
My prediction is Zack Langston. Now, I know a lot of you are going to say he graduated last year. However, many of you may not realize that he redshirted his freshman year of HS XC. Therefore, he is planning to use his last year of eligibility to compete for a national title. Langston\'s strength running was virtually unbeatable in SC last year, and he just had an off day at Footlocker South. Langston now wears a headband which will give him a competitive edge since he will be more aerodynamic, and it is rumored he split a 1:47 anchor leg at the Taco Bell Classic.
jenapharm wrote:
Trautman had mono his Sr xc season
Trautman didn't develop mono until after the start of track season his senior year. He beat Reina and the Mastalir brothers in a fast mile race indoors. Then at the end of April he ran 8:05 for 3000 at Penn Relays.
He just had a bad race at Footlocker. He was definitely considered the slight favorite going into the meet.
dma wrote:
I don't know, the speed ratings on Dyestat seem reasonable. It shows 10 guys with the equivalent of a sub 9 min 2 mile performance. Probably what you would expect right?
That only includes the nxn also rans.
No because wrote:
dma wrote:I don't know, the speed ratings on Dyestat seem reasonable. It shows 10 guys with the equivalent of a sub 9 min 2 mile performance. Probably what you would expect right?
That only includes the nxn also rans.
If you read the thread, Watchout talks about his different approach to the speed ratings than Meylan. So you can't cross compare too much. They would be similar. However, in the middle, but on the outer ratings, they would differ.
Who did not make the sub 9 cutoff?
11. Philip Rocha- He has already run sub 9
13. Robert Brandt- I thought he was supposed to be competing for the title. No sub 9 equivalent? Sad.
So taking for account that those 2, plus Millar had off days and couldn't break 9:00 today, that seems about right.
The interesting piece will be to compare Watchout's ratings from NXN to FL and Meylan's NXN - FL ratings.
They both say that the ratings have some personal touch to them, so neither can be completely accurate. They both rate some courses similar, and other courses different. The more familiar you are with a course, the more likely you will rate it accurately.
Just my thoughts on the whole deal.
Back on topic... Who do you think will win boys Footlocker?
Fisher.
Fisher is the favorite.
But there's no such thing as a sure thing.
That's for sure.
Fisher 14:43Maton 14:53Dressel 14:56Ostberg 14:59Hacker 15:03Turner 15:05Mantz 15:08Armstrong 15:09Tamagno 15:11Pollard 15:14
On topic wrote:
Back on topic... Who do you think will win boys Footlocker?
Fisher.
Do you want to explain why you don't have Hunter in the top-10? Just wondering.
here we go wrote:
Fisher 14:43
Maton 14:53
Dressel 14:56
Ostberg 14:59
Hacker 15:03
Turner 15:05
Mantz 15:08
Armstrong 15:09
Tamagno 15:11
Pollard 15:14
On topic wrote:Back on topic... Who do you think will win boys Footlocker?
Fisher.
Andrew Hunter stinks? wrote:
Do you want to explain why you don't have Hunter in the top-10? Just wondering.
here we go wrote:Fisher 14:43
Maton 14:53
Dressel 14:56
Ostberg 14:59
Hacker 15:03
Turner 15:05
Mantz 15:08
Armstrong 15:09
Tamagno 15:11
Pollard 15:14
These are very reasonable. I think Pollard will be in the top 5 and be close to 15 if not under.
Look for Jake Brophy (PA) to hit a low 15s time and contend if the pace dawdles. The balboa course and the PA state course are very much alike, and he had a dominant last mile at Hershey.
Sorry kiddos, these guys aren't all running under 15 (and 10th place is NOT going to be 15:14). Last year 3rd place was 15:19, and 15:06 was the winning time. At BEST the winning time will be 14:55 this year...maybe...if everyone pushed from the gun AND surged AND kicked hard. I'll have Fisher in 15:02, 3 seconds over Maton.
10th place will be like last year, around 15:30.
Ahhh! "Turner" = Hunter. Not sure where that came from.So, Hunter in 6th at 15:05. He shares the lead a few times during the second mile.
Andrew Hunter stinks? wrote:
Do you want to explain why you don't have Hunter in the top-10? Just wondering.
here we go wrote:Fisher 14:43
Maton 14:53
Dressel 14:56
Ostberg 14:59
Hacker 15:03
HUNTER 15:05
Mantz 15:08
Armstrong 15:09
Tamagno 15:11
Pollard 15:14
Fisher is at least 20 seconds faster than last year IF he is giving 100% [and if the race isn't super tactical]. In races where he either went out hard (Portage) to test himself, or had a race plan to make a move at a particular point (MI state meet), he's been 20 seconds faster compared to a year ago. Given that last year he wasn't national champion yet at these races, one could reasonably assume that his performances from his junior year were achieved with more effort than this year. His FLMW 15:00 looked very relaxed, especially as he put 9 seconds on the field in the last 800m.So in my opinion, he is capable of 14:43 if the race goes out quick. 4:34-4:50-4:50 = 14:43. It isn't unreasonable to believe that a returning champion that has since put down a 4:02.02 mile and a 8:51 (4:31-4:20 with a :26 last 200m) 2 mile can run those splits at Balboa.As for the others, I believe they can run those times. Now, if they all cruise the first half of the race, or if it's raining, then it all goes out the window.
I look at other race results wrote:
Sorry kiddos, these guys aren't all running under 15 (and 10th place is NOT going to be 15:14). Last year 3rd place was 15:19, and 15:06 was the winning time. At BEST the winning time will be 14:55 this year...maybe...if everyone pushed from the gun AND surged AND kicked hard. I'll have Fisher in 15:02, 3 seconds over Maton.
10th place will be like last year, around 15:30.
and Cheserek was capable of 14:30, and Verzbicas 14:20. Yet both barely broke 15 their senior year. What you don't understand is that this is a RACE, and the top runners in the field are RACERS. They don't care about times AT ALL. The 4:31-4:20 Fisher race you talked about? It would have been 4:31-4:28 had Fisher not kicked the last 200 in 26 seconds. That's what we'll probably see this year: a few guys up front running ONLY at 15:20ish pace, and then the guys with SPEED kicking the last 600 to get right above 15:00. This ain't Fairyland, where 14:43 grows on trees. It's not happening.
here we go wrote:
Fisher is at least 20 seconds faster than last year IF he is giving 100% [and if the race isn't super tactical]. In races where he either went out hard (Portage) to test himself, or had a race plan to make a move at a particular point (MI state meet), he's been 20 seconds faster compared to a year ago. Given that last year he wasn't national champion yet at these races, one could reasonably assume that his performances from his junior year were achieved with more effort than this year. His FLMW 15:00 looked very relaxed, especially as he put 9 seconds on the field in the last 800m.
So in my opinion, he is capable of 14:43 if the race goes out quick. 4:34-4:50-4:50 = 14:43. It isn't unreasonable to believe that a returning champion that has since put down a 4:02.02 mile and a 8:51 (4:31-4:20 with a :26 last 200m) 2 mile can run those splits at Balboa.
As for the others, I believe they can run those times. Now, if they all cruise the first half of the race, or if it's raining, then it all goes out the window.
I look at other race results wrote:Sorry kiddos, these guys aren't all running under 15 (and 10th place is NOT going to be 15:14). Last year 3rd place was 15:19, and 15:06 was the winning time. At BEST the winning time will be 14:55 this year...maybe...if everyone pushed from the gun AND surged AND kicked hard. I'll have Fisher in 15:02, 3 seconds over Maton.
10th place will be like last year, around 15:30.
Time is an important component because, barring dq, the runner with the fastest time always wins.
Therefore, the runner who runs the fastest time from the start, to the finish, always wins.
Those who run slower than the fastest time they are capable of are not running their best, and therefore are not racing, but gambling and sandbagging the race. In the case that everyone does this, the winner will be the fastest sandbagger, but not the best racer.
A great example of racing was Tanner Anderson winning the recent NxN final.
It would be great to see the FLN finals develop into the same type of race.
racing vs jogging wrote:
Time is an important component because, barring dq, the runner with the fastest time always wins.
Therefore, the runner who runs the fastest time from the start, to the finish, always wins.
Those who run slower than the fastest time they are capable of are not running their best, and therefore are not racing, but gambling and sandbagging the race. In the case that everyone does this, the winner will be the fastest sandbagger, but not the best racer.
Grow up
I look at other race results wrote:
Sorry kiddos, these guys aren't all running under 15 (and 10th place is NOT going to be 15:14). Last year 3rd place was 15:19, and 15:06 was the winning time. At BEST the winning time will be 14:55 this year...maybe...if everyone pushed from the gun AND surged AND kicked hard. I'll have Fisher in 15:02, 3 seconds over Maton.
10th place will be like last year, around 15:30.
You aren't doing your homework. Go back and look at the FL times over the past 20 years and you'll see there are fast years and slow years. Usually there is a slow year (weak Sr. class) and then a faster year (stronger Sr class). The times vary significantly from year to year depending on the quality of the field and the way the race plays out. Look at what the top Juniors ran last fall and then look at the improvement in track and continued improvement this fall. This field is loaded and everyone knows Maton and Fisher have wheels. Mark it down. The pace won't go slow and the times will be fast.