Would Mary Cain have won ncaa xc?

No way Weird AL Sal lets her run. He would have pulled her off the course due to wind, pollen count, or some other bs. Remember, when he took NOP to Club Nats and wouldn't let them run because the course was too hilly?

Yeah, let's be real here. Easy second and probably first. With any specific prep, easy first.

wongg wrote:

Yeah, let's be real here. Easy second and probably first. With any specific prep, easy first.

I seem to remember Jenny Simpson crwaling around in the mud when she tried to win it. Mary Cain is also a miler, I don't see her winning it

LOL...Mary Cain didn't even run in the race and there is a longer thread about her than any of the girls who ran...it shows the lack of stars this race had...(although I can't remember seeing a cuter top 5) Listening to her interviews after 5K's ,she doesn't like running that far .."like when is this thing going to be over". So she may not have the right mindset for 5K's and XC.

"I think she just threw up." J Hasay

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Six examples from years ago. Another generation, different circumstances. Are you familiar with the concept of silent evidence? If you don't consider the possible "cemetery" (those who did not benefit) (and the burden is on you to do so) your assertion is biased and inaccurate. In probability you must consider all eventualities as much as possible.[/quote]

Cemetery? Say, cemetery, what????

The American high school and collegiate systems are fabulous.

Yes, some runners over train or are coached wrongly but overall a tremendously successful system.....The main problem for our sport is the usage and acceptance (by guys like you) of drugs. Drugs make a mockery of the clean runner.........before epo Americans were competing with AND BEATING everybody. Ever seen a picture of Frank Shorter losing to a Kenyan? No, because there aren't any.....Liquouri, Rogers, Wottle. Steve Scott, Rick Wolhutter, Ryun, Prefontaine, and the American based super stars like Coghlan and John Treacy (siver, world xc 2 time champ)... they benefitted tremendously from their earlier NCAA experience.....they "fell behind" in world rankings ONLY when the Kenyans and Epo-thians started to durg....Have I made myself clear? Mary Cain should be running for Oregon or Villanova.......7 years of solitude is not good for a young American runner...

ksoso wrote:

JP Morgan wrote:

Actually 'World Junior Champion over 3k' isn't meaningless at all. It means she won the race. Time means nothing when you win.

No. Time is the only way to compare how she would do in ANOTHER race. A title can't be used to make such a comparison or prediction like this.

Nope. Don't believe you.

Skeptic of your brain wrote:

All 1500m runners are "speed based". Matter of fact, all RACES are speed based. Cain has gobs of it. And almost as much aerobic fitness. That's why she's a world class 800/1500 runner. However, one's aerobic fitness doesn't magically stop there and without tons of aerobic fitness you can't run a world class 1500; it's just not possible.

A 4:20 1500 runner vs. a 4:01 1500 runner is akin to a 3:50 1500 runner vs. a 3:33 1500 runner. Do you honestly think that 3:50 1500 runner has any chance over 6K vs. the 3:33 guy? If any, it's exceptionally slim. Cain wins in a landslide.

That's dumb. You don't need tons of aerobic fitness to run a world class 1500m. Look at Coe, Ngeny, or Rudisha. Who would you bet on in a cross-country race? Them or someone like Ritz or Tadesse?

And no, not all 1500 meter runners are speed based. Coe is speed based. Komen is endurance based.

0348j wrote:

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Six examples from years ago. Another generation, different circumstances. Are you familiar with the concept of silent evidence? If you don't consider the possible "cemetery" (those who did not benefit) (and the burden is on you to do so) your assertion is biased and inaccurate. In probability you must consider all eventualities as much as possible.

Cemetery? Say, cemetery, what????

The American high school and collegiate systems are fabulous.

Yes, some runners over train or are coached wrongly but overall a tremendously successful system.....The main problem for our sport is the usage and acceptance (by guys like you) of drugs. Drugs make a mockery of the clean runner.........before epo Americans were competing with AND BEATING everybody. Ever seen a picture of Frank Shorter losing to a Kenyan? No, because there aren't any.....Liquouri, Rogers, Wottle. Steve Scott, Rick Wolhutter, Ryun, Prefontaine, and the American based super stars like Coghlan and John Treacy (siver, world xc 2 time champ)... they benefitted tremendously from their earlier NCAA experience.....they "fell behind" in world rankings ONLY when the Kenyans and Epo-thians started to durg....Have I made myself clear? Mary Cain should be running for Oregon or Villanova.......7 years of solitude is not good for a young American runner...[/quote]

Again you are misunderstanding completely. More noncontemporary examples. You don't list any losers cause you haven't heard of them. The pool of pros who skipped college is also pretty small. So it looks like your trigger happy forum going mind cannot grasp probability and silent evidence. Also you equate college completely and exclusively with a social life, as if the NCAA has a monopoly on socializing. Another logical fallacy. Who says professionals categorically can't have social lives? America is all about innovation and choice: we should have alternatives to the collegiate system.

Idiot couldn't close the quote. I can't fix his HTML tag formatting sloppiness cause I'm on a mobile device that makes it hard to type.

Not even close to winning!

skeptic of your skepticism wrote:

That\'s dumb. You don\'t need tons of aerobic fitness to run a world class 1500m. Look at Coe, Ngeny, or Rudisha. Who would you bet on in a cross-country race? Them or someone like Ritz or Tadesse?

And no, not all 1500 meter runners are speed based. Coe is speed based. Komen is endurance based.

We are not talking about Ngeny against Ritz over 6k. We are Talking Ngeny against someone like Grant Fisher (good runner but 15+ seconds slower over the mile) over 6k. I would take Coe or Ngeny any day in that race given that Ngeny has a 7:35 PR and coe ran a 14:06 5k.

Now bump it down to 800m runners (Rushida) you might come across some that are speed based enough to start losing.

There are currently, NO good alternatives......., the Euros have the club system which means that when you are young you train for one of several local clubs rather than your high school....cool, it works for them and could work for us --- but it just ain't there yet. It might even be better in the long run as you can stay with the same team, coach, teammates for a ten, twenty year period. (Whereas with our education based teams, it's four years and get your asse out).... so I see your point.....it's just that America's club system is so small, so weak.....if you look at our pro-sports, in a way they have this club system whereby you play for one of the 32 baseball clubs, or 30 NFL teams etc.....only problem is the owners have created ruthless monetarily based clubs. The only loyalty and comraderie amongst the fans rather than the short time players.........Now Al Sal and Nike have Mary Cain quarantined and she ain't even been to Liberia yet.

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.I was responding to tacobellguydave........

Thanks ^^^

Cain doesn't have much appetite for races longer than 3k/2miles. If the question were 3k or 1500 there's no question she would beat them all handily. She lost to Baxter in her last XC race. When she does race 5k or longer she does not stay with the lead pack, probably worrying about blowing up before the finish. I would say top 5 but not first.

NOP Skeptic wrote:

skeptic of your skepticism wrote:

That's dumb. You don't need tons of aerobic fitness to run a world class 1500m. Look at Coe, Ngeny, or Rudisha. Who would you bet on in a cross-country race? Them or someone like Ritz or Tadesse?

And no, not all 1500 meter runners are speed based. Coe is speed based. Komen is endurance based.

Thanks ^^^

Coe's PR for 400 was 46.87. Komen didn't focus on anything below the 1500 because he knew where the money was for him. That being said, he had high 47 400 speed, so we are talking about two guys with essentially the same speed had Komen trained for the 800 like Coe did. I can agree that Komen was more elastic than Coe and thus would naturally distance him over the longer races. They both had massive amounts of aerobic conditioning.

There is simply a difference of viewpoints here. I don't see any race being endurance BASED. It is all based on speed first. Endurance comes second. Always.

Even in a 100K race. Without the requisite speed you can't win a 100K! What is that requisite speed? Sub 55 for the 400, or about 26 flat for 200. Not a ton of speed, obviously, but goes to show there are raw speed prerequisites at all distances.

Spiro Agnew wrote:

Possibly, ....

At 5000m, Avery's VDOT is over 67; Cain's is under 67. For this reason, and others already cited above, I don't think Cain would have bested Avery this year.