Also very interesting to see Waverly Neer running for the Oregon women. Don't think she's enough to move them past Michigan State but you never know. Maybe she is coming back from injury and will be better in three weeks?
Also very interesting to see Waverly Neer running for the Oregon women. Don't think she's enough to move them past Michigan State but you never know. Maybe she is coming back from injury and will be better in three weeks?
i like ducks wrote:
george oscar bluth wrote:I mean, Wisco managed to lose nationals one year with Teg, Solinsky, Bairu, Nelson, and Spiker or Lockhardt or someone, so stranger things have happened.
It's tough running three hard races to end the season - conference, regionals and nationals. All it takes is a cold working its way through a team for things to head south.
I would think Colorado and Oregon will run to just qualify at regionals and save themselves for NCAAs.
Agreed
george oscar bluth wrote:
i like ducks wrote:Call me a naïve Duck, but I still think Oregon has a chance at NCAAs if Cheserek and Jenkins are in the top 5 and 1 or 2 of Colorado's top 5 has an off race.
They (Oregon) certainly have a chance, but I think Colorado will handle the extra 2k well, and Hursysyzzyyz had what I would call an off day.
I was surprised with how well Stanford ran, minus Maksim. Now, repeating that at NCAAs may be asking a lot of them.
Stanford ran great. Very solid comeback race from McGorty, a *great* race from Atchoo, excellent job by Sweatt, and 6 and 7 (Keelan and Wharton) looked surprisingly strong, too.
Only disappointment, as you said, is that Maks was a little off today.
With Jim, this would've been a really great team.
But the real story here is that Colorado is every bit as good as they seemed to be. Holy sh*t!
I wasn't completely convinced till today, but I sure am now.
They're ridiculous.
Neither Oregon nor anybody else is coming close, even on their absolute best day.
And Stanford *with* Jim still would've found it almost impossible to beat that pack.
i like ducks wrote:
Call me a naïve Duck, but I still think Oregon has a chance at NCAAs if Cheserek and Jenkins are in the top 5 and 1 or 2 of Colorado's top 5 has an off race.
I'd agree with that, but I have to say I trust Colorado's top 5 much more than Oregon's 3-5. With Ches and Jenkins though, Oregon is the only team that could POTENTIALLY give Colorado a run. If I was a Ducks fan, I'd be worried that Jenkins won't run quite as well over 10k.
Stanford looks like a podium threat again with McGorty back. Their biggest problem is that at NCAA's they're 1 Korolev blowup away from finishing 18th.
i like ducks wrote:
gtfo wrote:You win the Captain Obvious Award for boldly predicting that arguably the best college cross country team of the last several years would win their conference meet by more than five points.
Call me a naïve Duck, but I still think Oregon has a chance at NCAAs if Cheserek and Jenkins are in the top 5 and 1 or 2 of Colorado's top 5 has an off race.
You are naïve and expecting too many things to fall your way.
pin racer wrote:I'd agree with that, but I have to say I trust Colorado's top 5 much more than Oregon's 3-5. With Ches and Jenkins though, Oregon is the only team that could POTENTIALLY give Colorado a run. If I was a Ducks fan, I'd be worried that Jenkins won't run quite as well over 10k.
Stanford looks like a podium threat again with McGorty back. Their biggest problem is that at NCAA's they're 1 Korolev blowup away from finishing 18th.
Cheserek looks unbeatable. Oregon needs Jenkins, Melancon and Leingang rested enough at NCAAs to have a chance. I hope those three skip or cruise through regionals.
Very impressed by Stanford and Colorado today. Pac-12 is going to dominate NCAAs.
Colorado's top 5 beat Oregon's number 2 at Nationals.
Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
TrackCoach wrote:
You are naïve and expecting too many things to fall your way.
I look forward to resurrecting this thread, :)
kybaws wrote:
I think for the Oregon Women to contend for a national title in a few weeks, Oregon needs a little more from their #6 and #7 runner...Megan Patrignelli and Lindsey Crevoiserat. Earlier in the season, both seemed to be the top 2 runners for Oregon. LC has really struggled as of late.
What is up with Crevoiserat? She ran a lot better when she was at UConn.
Jonathan Gault wrote:
Putting five in front of the guy who just won Wisconsin is ridiculous.
Let me amend that statement:
Putting five in front of the guy who was third at NCAAs last year - top American - is ridiculous.
But he isn't....
T BONE wrote:
Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
Not quite, hombre. You forgot to add +2 to Stanford when you drop in Rosa2 (Atchoo and McGorty get bumped back a place). In your hypothetical, the score would be CU 40 and Stanford 41.
But, yeah, not grounded in reality.
T BONE wrote:
Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
You also have to consider that Colorado wasn't giving a full effort since they all finished together. This was a workout for them and they dominated. Wait til they are allowed to run more independtly at nationals.
Jonathan Gault wrote:
Also very interesting to see Waverly Neer running for the Oregon women. Don't think she's enough to move them past Michigan State but you never know. Maybe she is coming back from injury and will be better in three weeks?
Is there any news about Baxter? Why isn't she running?
T BONE wrote:
Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
Apparently not 'simple' enough for you, I guess.
If Jim runs with Joe, he displaces their 3, 4 and 5, and adds 3 points, so they'd be at 46, not 43.
If Maks is with them, he cuts 4 points to 42, not 39.
They still would've trailed CO by a couple of points.
It would've been close, like I was saying all summer, but Stanford would've had to put all FOUR big guns ahead of most of the CO pack to have a decent shot at Nats.
I thought they might've had a shot to do that, but this CO pack is even better than anybody thought it'd be.
It would've been really, really hard, even in the best circumstances.
They'd really have to have the Big 3 ahead of the whole CO pack, McGorty very close behind --ahead of most of the pack, and a real step-up effort from one of the supporting cast for #5.
They got the great race from #5 today (actually from 4, 5, 6, and 7 --which is pretty phenomenal), but you'd still need pretty much everything to go right to beat these guys.
As it is, no one's coming close.
The guys saying the Ducks have a shot are living in la-la-land.
george oscar bluth wrote:
T BONE wrote:Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
Not quite, hombre. You forgot to add +2 to Stanford when you drop in Rosa2 (Atchoo and McGorty get bumped back a place). In your hypothetical, the score would be CU 40 and Stanford 41.
But, yeah, not grounded in reality.
Right, the 4 and the 5, not the 3, 4, and 5. My mistake.
41, not 42.
Conclusion remains unchanged.
puhlsa wrote:
T BONE wrote:Simple math...
If Jim Rosa runs, lets say he runs with his brother and gets 4th...
This puts Stanfords score to 43 (-21 + 4), and Colorado's score to 35 (+5).
Much closer...
If Korolev runs like last week and runs with the brothers and gets 5th...This puts Stanfords score to 39 (-4) and Colorados to 40 (+5).
I know 'WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA', but still crazy to think about. If Joe Rosa is healthy, and Korolev runs with them, they beat the 'unbeatable' Colorado team.
You also have to consider that Colorado wasn't giving a full effort since they all finished together. This was a workout for them and they dominated. Wait til they are allowed to run more independtly at nationals.
Ehhhh somewhat. 17s 1 through 5 spread, so it wasn't like the ole Cowpokes "running together" type of race where they finish in the same second. How much do you think would've changed if they "ran independently"? I'm not sure that they put many if any guys ahead of Rosa or Jenkins today (not to say they can't at Nationals).
i like ducks wrote:
...
Call me a naïve Duck, but I still think Oregon has a chance at NCAAs if Cheserek and Jenkins are in the top 5 and 1 or 2 of Colorado's top 5 has an off race.
When you get to the big stage, what happens with 3/4/5 matters a lot more than what happens with 1/2. If the 4/5 guys are scoring 50-60 points, you can go 1/2/3 and still be well over 100 (e.g., 116). Look at the time difference between Colorado's 4/5 and the Oregon guys and multiply by 3 (or more) per second. Do, however, account for the difference between 8 and 10km in terms of the ability of guys to race well.
Bummed about the Bruins. I was getting excited about our team this year! Lane and Jonah had a rough day, maybe they can bounce back for regionals and nationals?