Most guys who eventually go sub-4 are running much faster than Cain is when they are her age. And this is without a professional coach and all the other advantages Cain has already had.
There are over a hundred high school boys running under 2:24 every year and only a select few go on to run sub-4. and the majority of those are probably running closer to 4:15 in high school.
no...just no... this sounds ridiculous and everyone needs to stop jizzing over mary cain
1500, of course. Mile, not a chance. Consider: The world record for men back in 1890 was 4:12 (Walter George). This was eons before anyone really knew how to train. Let's at least move up to mid 1950s when people DID know how to train. Herb Elliot ran 3:54 (on dirt) in 1958. The mile record has come down about 10.5 seconds in the 55 years since then. Current women's world record is (Mastarkova--was she clean?) 4:12.6. Sub 4 by any clean woman? Not in our life times.
No
webfoot wrote:
I'd like to see a study of all sub-4 runners and their 400 PR.
Almost always gonna be faster than 52. 50 or better usually. 52 and over outlier territory.
And no on her breaking 4.
The moment I saw this thread, I hoped to god it wasn't another "can mary cain run a sub 4 mile" thread. In case you haven't noticed, the world record (although admittedly doped to the gills) was set when that girl was like 19 or 20. Something like that. Mary Slaney was just as good, if not better than, Mary Cain at this age. And if you look in the record books, mary Slaney doesn't have the world record.
So honestly, no, Mary Cain will not break the sub 4 barrier. She may threaten the world record at some point, maybe even break it, but not by 10 seconds.
And look at progressions from other of Salazar's athletes. Rupp's best mile in high school was a 4:01. He later dropped to a 3:51. That's 10 seconds, folks. And he might not be a speed athlete, you could argue, but if he ran a 4:08 in high school and dropped 25 seconds, he would have the world record. Plus Mary Cain is obviously an early maturer. You don't look at those 10 year olds running sub 20 5ks and say that them dropping 7 minutes could happen in another 15 years.
no way...she would have to have the speed of a world class 51x 400m runner to do that.