FARAH TO FACE WORLD'S BEST AT 2014 LONDON MARATHON :elite field announced

Notwithstanding his Olympic and WC victories, a WMM is a different animal. Mo is obviously a heck of a runner, who is going to do well in London, perhaps a 2:05 and/or a top 5 finish, but he is being promoted as if this is track 10K and he's going out kick everyone with 600 meters to go. The WMMs are almost never tactical, these guys put their foot down and don't bring it up until the finish line or die. A Kenyan only needs one good year of marathoning to be secure for life and they go for broke. I don't recall any race were Mo didn't win in the last lap or two; he has shown great speed/endurance, but marathon strength is difference. Mo knows how to win track races, but in reference to a marathon debut, I would be more impressed with an athlete with a 26:40 10K track PR than an Olympic 10K gold medalist.

Mo's half marathon PR is one hour, the pace in London for the a full marathon will only be 2 minutes off of that pace. And, btw, everyone one of the top guys running next to Mo could run just as fast a track 5K or 10K PR as Mo if they focused on it. - This is a tough debut, being an multiple gold medalist, in your hometown against a killer field and expected to be compete for victory. I think KB made the right decision in choosing Paris.

trackcoach wrote:

I think KB made the right decision in choosing Paris.

Definitely, and for good money but nothing like the moolah Farah's getting.

* wrote:

I don't think Farah is in a trap here.

It's a great situation.

He isn't expected to win. No pressure.

But probably gets a nice appearance fee and some good experience.

Gebrselassie debuted with a 3rd place finish at London and he was the reigning Oly champ and world recorder holder at 10,000m et the time. And he went on to break the marathon WR a couple times. Geb was faster than Farah and the marathoners in 2002 were slower than today.

Farah can't be expected to debut better than Geb.

He definitely will be expected to win by the British public. The London Marathon an iconic event which attracts a lot of viewers who would only otherwise ever watch T&F during the Olympics. The only name they know out of this field is Mo and they are used to seeing him win. If he fails it will be plastered over the newspapers. He will be under a lot of pressure.

LetsRun.com wrote:

Here's a crazy question for you.

Guess how many of the 13 sub 2:06 marthoners from 2013 are in the London field???

Go ahead. Guess.

Just 2.

The field is stacked with names yet somehow that stat is true.

This stat really surprised me

I love Mo, but the leaders will go out at world record pace (assuming good conditions) and he has no chance at that pace. You don't just walk into your first marathon and pull off a 2:04. If he runs it smart, he can maybe run 2:07, knock out a bunch of people who falter late, and finish 5th-8th. If he tries the "run with the leader as long as possible" strategy, it's gonna be a big pos split and a 2:10 finish.

Mo seems to have alot of speed in the 5k, which could mean lots of fast twitch fibers and thus trouble late in a marathon.

Of course, I could be completely wrong (except about the 2:04)!

madmandoc wrote:

he has no chance

Your speculation of what will probably happen are good, but actually Farah has a 5.2% chance of winning which is better than nothing. I calculated this exactly in another thread.

Hardloper wrote:

madmandoc wrote:

he has no chance

Your speculation of what will probably happen are good, but actually Farah has a 5.2% chance of winning which is better than nothing. I calculated this exactly in another thread.

You can't calculate something like that. I'd say his chances are low. The first one is tough and one must learn how to properly hydrate and ingest nutrition. I think 2:08 - 2:10

seems to me, almost by definition, a 3:28 1500 guy is not going to be a great marathoner. it's never happened before and I doubt it is going to happen this time.

mo gets dropped in the surges miles 15-18 and finishes 2:08:30, in around 7th place.

remember lagat couldn;t even run a great half marathon - what did he run - 62? i don't remember exactly but he wasn't even in the mix.

Al Fraudizar wrote:

Al sal sucks at coaching the marathon. Farah dnf in his magic shoes.

Agreed.

Farah will not even finish the race.

I'm excited to see Farah debut.

People on the message boards hate Farah and Rupp, and constantly belittle their accomplishments. They said Rupp could never run sub-4, never get an American Record, never be able to kick, never get an OG medal, never run 7:30 and 3:50 indoors. When he did do those things, it was drugs, a weak field, and a fluke.

Farah, who isn't a time trialer, somehow is treated as a substandard runner for having 2 Olympic Golds, 3 World Golds, and a World Silver. Before he ran the 1500 in Monaco, only Ventolin's calculator even imagined he'd go sub-3:30. 3:28. Again, weak fields, drugs, a fluke. Rupp and Farah are incredible distance runners. They don't often time trial, true, but when they do they are world-class, which translates to tactical races.

Alberto Salazar, former marathon world record holder, knows how to coach a marathon. His athletes don't DNF marathons. London is not going to be a tactical race. For Farah to have a chance he will have to run very hard, and not save it for the last 600. I don't think he'll win, but he'll do very well. I'm excited to see just how fast he really is. The man can only run 12.9 for the 100 yet can run 3:28 in the 1500. He's going to run better than 2:08, no matter how many people on the boards call him a second-tier runner or a fluke.

I'm part of the British public and I don't think he'll win. He'll break the British record of 2:07:13 I reckon but I doubt he'll trouble the leaders. Not saying he won't run faster in the future though.

I'm pretty sure there wasn't much negative publicity when he was beaten at the GNR, there was a little dissapointment as it was so close but he still broke the British HM record (if you count the GNR as it's slightly downhill)

I'll ask my girlfriend tonight for the view of someone who isn't in to running.

NativeSon wrote:

Al Fraudizar wrote:

Al sal sucks at coaching the marathon. Farah dnf in his magic shoes.

Agreed.

Farah will not even finish the race.

AlSal like any coach has to work with what he has. AlSal has never had a pure marathoner, i.e., someone with Rupp's talent who starts focusing on the marathon in their late teens to early 20s, lives and trains at HA, running 150mpw all year round and only runs 3 races a year. Today's marathoners are specialist, they might run world cross, one half marathon or a 10K, but their focus is on spring and fall marathon. The day AlSal get's a couple of FLNCs willing to skip college, move Boulder or Flag and focus on just the marathon he want have any 2:03 guys.

agip wrote:

seems to me, almost by definition, a 3:28 1500 guy is not going to be a great marathoner. it's never happened before and I doubt it is going to happen this time.

mo gets dropped in the surges miles 15-18 and finishes 2:08:30, in around 7th place.

remember lagat couldn;t even run a great half marathon - what did he run - 62? i don't remember exactly but he wasn't even in the mix.

That's really really poor reasoning. How many 3:28 guys have even TRIED to run a fast marathon? Lagat has run only 1 or 2 half marathons and he's done them on low mileage. And he was not a 3:28 guy at the time, was he? None of your arguments make sense.

edi wrote:

agip wrote:

seems to me, almost by definition, a 3:28 1500 guy is not going to be a great marathoner. it's never happened before and I doubt it is going to happen this time.

mo gets dropped in the surges miles 15-18 and finishes 2:08:30, in around 7th place.

remember lagat couldn;t even run a great half marathon - what did he run - 62? i don't remember exactly but he wasn't even in the mix.

That's really really poor reasoning. How many 3:28 guys have even TRIED to run a fast marathon? Lagat has run only 1 or 2 half marathons and he's done them on low mileage. And he was not a 3:28 guy at the time, was he? None of your arguments make sense.

7 people by my count have run as fast as Mo in the 1500.

None of those 7 has tried a marathon seriously to my knowledge anyway. Why not, I'd ask you.

Most likely, the extreme freakishnes of a 3:28 guy's body means that he can only hit peak performance for 5 or maybe 10 minutes. I don't want to be so crude, but they are not slow twitch marathon types.

Dixon is the only counterexample you have that I know - he ran 3:33 1500 and 2:09 marathon.

Another argument you have is that Mo has proven himself at 10000 meters, which does usually indicate some marathon ability.

you've also got Geb as an argument on your side - 3:31 and 2:04. But citing the greatest ever as an example sort of goes the other way.

And I'm not sure of the timing - maybe Geb ran 3:31 years before his marathons.

For Mo to do well, he basically has to be as good as Geb. Which could be true...but I doubt it.

agip wrote:

remember lagat couldn;t even run a great half marathon - what did he run - 62? i don't remember exactly but he wasn't even in the mix.

Bad reasoning because Mo HIMSELF has run much faster for HM.

Hardloper wrote:

agip wrote:

remember lagat couldn;t even run a great half marathon - what did he run - 62? i don't remember exactly but he wasn't even in the mix.

Bad reasoning because Mo HIMSELF has run much faster for HM.

but even Mo's half was only adequate: 60:10. Not even as fast as Ryan Hall.

Which surely suggests that at 13 miles Mo was already barely competitive. At 26 miles? Why should we think he will be in there for the win?

Where is Mo training for London? Training at altitude?

agip wrote:

Most likely, the extreme freakishnes of a 3:28 guy's body means that he can only hit peak performance for 5 or maybe 10 minutes. I don't want to be so crude, but they are not slow twitch marathon types.

That's not being crude. That's just being nonsensical again. Why would a 3:28 guy only be able to hit peak performance for 5 or 10 minutes? What does that even mean? That he could run 3:28 pace for only 5-10 minutes? Or that he could run marathon wr pace for only 5-10 minutes? Or that he could only run for a a maximum of 5-10 minutes?